Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control


Book Description

This book originates in a series of contributions to the 1983 Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the German Armed Forces University Munich. Under the topic "Quantita tive Approaches to Arms Control" that seminar attempted to review the present state-of-the-art of systems analysis and numerate meth ods in arms control. To this end, the editors invited a number of experts from Europe, the United St~tes and Canada to share and dis cuss their views and assessments with the faculty and upper class computer science students of the university as well as numerous guests from the defence community and the interested public. In three parts, this book presents a selection of partly re vised and somewhat extended versions of the seminar presentations followed, in most cases, by brief summaries of the transcripts of the respective discussions. In addition to an introduction by the editors, part I contains six papers on the present state and prob lems of arms control with emphasis on START (Strategic Arms Re duction Talks), INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces negotia tions), and MBFR (Mutually Balanced Force Reduction talks). The seven contributions to part II are devoted to mathematical models of arms competition and quantitative approaches to force balance assessment of both, the static and dynamic variety. Part III pre sents five papers which address technical and operational aspects and legal implications of arms control negotiations and verifica tion.







Safeguards Systems Analysis


Book Description

Adequate verification is the key issue not only in today's arms control, arms limitation, and disarmament regimes, but also in less spectacular areas like auditing in economics or control of environmental pollution. Statistical methodologies and system analytical approaches are the tools developed over the past decades for quantifying those components of adequate verification which are quantifiable, i. e. , numbers, inventories, mass transfers, etc. , together with their uncertainties. In his book Safeguards Systems Analy sis, Professor Rudolf Avenhaus condenses the experience and expertise he has gained over the past 20 years, when his work was mainly related to the development of the IAEA's system for safeguarding nuclear materials, to system analytical studies at IIASA in the field of future energy requirements and their risks, and to the application of statistical techniques to arms control. The result is a unified and up-to-date presentation and analysis of the quantitative aspects of safeguards systems, and the application of the more important findings to practical problems. International Nuclear Material Safeguards, by far the most advanced verification system in the field of arms limitation, is used as the main field of application for the game theoretical analysis, material accountancy theory, and the theory on verification of material accounting data developed in the first four chapters.




International Negotiations: A Bibliography


Book Description

The international system comprises a plurality of sovereign states often pursuing conflicting interests. One means of resolving or managing conflicts between those states is diplomatic bargaining or negotiation. In the last fifteen years, the study of negotiation has attracted researchers from various disciplines in the social sciences, and the vol













Arms Control


Book Description




Arms Control and Security: The Changing Role of Conventional Arms Control in Europe


Book Description

This title was first published in 2000: The aim of this text is to explore conventional arms control in Europe. The early chapters provide a primarily historical perspective, looking at the context, foundations, main provisions and institutional structure of the main agreements. The later chapters explore the continuing and likely future roles of the OSCE and NATO in the arms control process. The final chapters examine more contemporary developments by looking at the Adapted CFE Treaty and Vienna Documents agreed at the OSCE Istanbul Summit in November 1998 and the challenges posed to existing arrangements by the changing and emergent security threats that potentially face Europe.




Modelling and Analysis in Arms Control


Book Description

This book presents the results of an international workshop on Modelling and Analysis of Arms Control Problems held in Spitzingsee near Munich in October 1985 under the joint sponsorship of NATO's Scientific Affairs Division and the Volkswagen Foundation. The idea for this workshop evolved in 1983, as a consequence of discussions in the annual Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the Federal Armed Forces University ~1unich on the topic of Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control 1) • There was wide agreement among the contribu tors to that seminar and its participants that those efforts to assess the potential contributions of systems and decision sciences, as well as systems analysis and"mathematical modelling, to arms control issues should be ex panded and a forum should be provided for this activity. It was further agreed that such a forum should include political scientists and policy analysts working in the area of arms control.