Quantitative Economic Policy


Book Description

Econometric techniques and models are still being extensively used in the business of forecasting and policy advice. This book presents recent advances in the theory and applications of quantitative economic policy, with particular emphasis on fiscal and monetary policies in a European and global context. The volume honors Andrew Hughes Hallett, a pioneer and major scientist in quantitative economic policy analysis, whose contributors are among his friends and former students.




International Economics II


Book Description

There is no lack of good international economics textbooks ranging from the elementary to the advanced, so that an additional drop in this ocean calls for an explanation. In the present writer's opinion, there seems still to be room for a textbook which can be used in both undergraduate and graduate courses, and which contains a wide range of topics, including those usually omitted from other textbooks. These are the intentions behind the present book, which is an outcrop from undergraduate and graduate courses in international economics that the author has been holding at the University of Rome since 1974, and from his on going research work in this field. Accordingly the work is organized as two-books in-one by distributing the material between text and appendices. The treatment in the body of this book is directed to undergraduate students and is mainly confined to graphic analysis and to some elementary algebra, but it is assumed that the reader will have a good knowledge of basic microeconomics and macroeconomics (so that the usual review material on production functions, indifference curves, standard Keynesian model, etc. , etc. has been omitted) . Each chapter is followed by an appendix in which the treatment is mainly mathematical, and where (i) the topics explained in the text are treated at a level suitable for advanced undergraduate or first-year graduate students and (ii) generalizations and/or topics not treated in the text (including some of those at the frontiers of research) are formally examined.




The Many Faces of Development


Book Description




Econometric Decision Models


Book Description

This volume contains a refereed selection of revised papers which were originally presented at the Second International Conference on Econometric Decision Models, University of Hagen (FernUni versitat). The conference was held in Haus Nordhelle, a meeting place in the mountainous area " Sauerland" , some 50 kilometers south of Hagen, on August 29 - September 1, 1989. Some details about this conference are given in the first paper, they need not be repeated here. The 40 papers included in this volume are organized in 10 "parts", shown in the table of contents. Included are such "fashionable" topics like "optimal control", "cointegration" and "rational expec tations models". In each part, the papers have been arranged alphabetically by author, unless there were good reasons for a different arrangement. To facilitate the decision making of the readers, all papers (except a few short ones) contain an abstract, a list of keywords and a table of contents. At the end of the proceedings volume, there is a list of authors. More than ten years ago, I began to organize meetings of econometricians, mainly called "seminar" or " colloquium". One major purpose of these meetings has always been to improve international cooperation of econometric model builders (and model users) from "the East" and "the West". Unprecedented changes to the better have taken place recently ("perestroika"). For a large fraction of participants from the Soviet Union, the 1989 conference was the first conference in a Western country.




Information and Efficiency in Economic Decision


Book Description

Use of information is basic to economic theory in two ways. As a basis for optimization, it is central to all normative hypotheses used in eco nomics, but in decision-making situations it has stochastic and evolution ary aspects that are more dynamic and hence more fundamental. This book provides an illustrative survey of the use of information in econom ics and other decision sciences. Since this area is one of the most active fields of research in modern times, it is not possible to be definitive on all aspects of the issues involved. However questions that appear to be most important in this author's view are emphasized in many cases, without drawing any definite conclusions. It is hoped that these questions would provoke new interest for those beginning researchers in the field who are currently most active. Various classifications of information structures and their relevance for optimal decision-making in a stochastic environment are analyzed in some detail. Specifically the following areas are illustrated in its analytic aspects: 1. Stochastic optimization in linear economic models, 2. Stochastic models in dynamic economics with problems of time-inc- sistency, causality and estimation, 3. Optimal output-inventory decisions in stochastic markets, 4. Minimax policies in portfolio theory, 5. Methods of stochastic control and differential games, and 6. Adaptive information structures in decision models in economics and the theory of economic policy.




Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models


Book Description

It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.




The Endogenization of Government Behaviour in Macroeconomic Models


Book Description

In chapter 2 we concluded that the present public choice and marxist approaches to the study of political processes, as far as relevant for the analysis of economic policy making, are unsatisfactory, for reasons of incoherency, insufficient empirical support, and lack of specificity~ It was suggested that a different approach to the subject might be fruitful. To that purpose, we now turn our attention to the so-called interest function approach to the study of politico-economic phenomena, that has been developed by Van Winden (1983). See also Van Winden (1987), Van Velthoven and Van Winden (1986). Without paying too much attention to the specific conduct of and intricate relationships between voters, politicians, bureaucrats and interest groups, the interest function approach intends to combine valuable elements of the marxist and public choice analyses. According to Van Winden (1983, p. 12) "this means that in studying the interaction between state and private sector, attention should be paid to: - social classes, and the impact of class/power relationships on political and economic processes; - the way that social power structures (involving the real control over state activities) are maintained or altered; - the relative autonomy of political processes (involving the state) and its consequences for, as well as its dependence on economic processes; - individual motivations; - the possibility of mathematical formalization. " Section 3. 2. will give a general introduction to the concepts and the line of argument of the interest function approach.




Econometric Decision Models


Book Description




Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies 1989


Book Description

The Symposium aimed at analysing and solving the various problems of representation and analysis of decision making in economic systems starting from the level of the individual firm and ending up with the complexities of international policy coordination. The papers are grouped into subject areas such as game theory, control methods, international policy coordination and the applications of artificial intelligence and experts systems as a framework in economic modelling and control. The Symposium therefore provides a wide range of important information for those involved or interested in the planning of company and national economics.