Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited


Book Description

Now, more than ever, planning and managing in the real world is beset by change and uncertainty. Knowledge is incomplete, values are in dispute, decisions of others are often unpredictable. Sheathed in opaque technicalities, inflexible and over-ambitious, the highly mathematical methods of analysing problem situations are no longer considered acceptable. In their place a coherent alternative paradigm has emerged- a range of formal methodologies which aim not to produce 'optimal' solutions but to facilitate an enriched decision-making process. 'Low-tech' transparent and participatory, these methods assist in the formulation and reformulation of problem solving in an uncertain world. This fully revised and updated book brings together contributions from some of the great thinkers on this subject. The authors present the most influential methods (each illustrated with a case study), describe the principles on which the method operates, the step and the stages of analysis, and how these methods relate to the decision making process. The concluding section explores future developments and research issues, as well as links with other relevant domains.




Rational Analysis for a Problematic World


Book Description

An up-to-date overview of a range of methods for structuring decisions and problems, useful for strategic thinking and management. Presents six problem-structuring methodologies in a way that makes it easy to determine if that method is appropriate for a given situation. Covers strategic options development and analysis, soft systems methodology, robustness analysis, metagame analysis, hypergame analysis, and strategic choice, including the analysis of interconnected decision areas.




Critical Systems Thinking and the Management of Complexity


Book Description

From the winner of the INCOSE Pioneer Award 2022 The world has become increasingly networked and unpredictable. Decision makers at all levels are required to manage the consequences of complexity every day. They must deal with problems that arise unexpectedly, generate uncertainty, are characterised by interconnectivity, and spread across traditional boundaries. Simple solutions to complex problems are usually inadequate and risk exacerbating the original issues. Leaders of international bodies such as the UN, OECD, UNESCO and WHO — and of major business, public sector, charitable, and professional organizations — have all declared that systems thinking is an essential leadership skill for managing the complexity of the economic, social and environmental issues that confront decision makers. Systems thinking must be implemented more generally, and on a wider scale, to address these issues. An evaluation of different systems methodologies suggests that they concentrate on different aspects of complexity. To be in the best position to deal with complexity, decision makers must understand the strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches and learn how to employ them in combination. This is called critical systems thinking. Making use of over 25 case studies, the book offers an account of the development of systems thinking and of major efforts to apply the approach in real-world interventions. Further, it encourages the widespread use of critical systems practice as a means of ensuring responsible leadership in a complex world. The INCOSE Pioneer Award is presented to someone who, by their achievements in the engineering of systems, has contributed uniquely to major products or outcomes enhancing society or meeting its needs. The criteria may apply to a single outstanding outcome or a lifetime of significant achievements in effecting successful systems. Comments on a previous version of the book: Russ Ackoff: ‘the book is the best overview of the field I have seen’ JP van Gigch: ‘Jackson does a masterful job. The book is lucid ...well written and eminently readable’ Professional Manager (Journal of the Chartered Management Institute): ‘Provides an excellent guide and introduction to systems thinking for students of management’




Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys


Book Description

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys provides survey articles and references of the seminal or state-of-the-art research on MCDA. The material covered ranges from the foundations of MCDA, over various MCDA methodologies (outranking methods, multiattribute utility and value theories, non-classical approaches) to multiobjective mathematical programming, MCDA applications, and software. This vast amount of material is organized in 8 parts, with a total of 25 chapters. More than 2000 references are listed.





Book Description




Simulation Modelling


Book Description

While simulation has a vast area of application, this textbook focuses on the use of simulation to analyse business processes. It provides an up-to-date coverage of all stages of the discrete-event simulation (DES) process, covering important areas such as conceptual modelling, modelling input data, verification and validation and simulation output analysis. The book is comprehensive yet uncomplicated, covering the theoretical aspects of the subject and the practical elements of a typical simulation project, demonstrated by cases, examples and exercises. It also shows how simulation relates to new developments in machine learning, big data analytics and conceptual modelling techniques. Guidance is provided on how to build DES models using the Arena, Simio and Simul8 simulation software, and tutorials for using the software are incorporated throughout. Simulation Modelling offers a uniquely practical and end-to-end overview of the subject, which makes it perfect required or recommended reading for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students studying business simulation and simulation modelling as part of operations research, business analytics, supply chain management and computer science courses.




Different Perspectives in Design Thinking


Book Description

Globalization and digitalization are buzz words in contemporary society. They affect both our private and our professional lives. Society has become more diverse with easier access to information and to virtual platforms that gives us opportunity to be in touch with colleagues, friends, family, etc. at any time. A complex environment is emerging wherein internet of things and big data are being integrated with products, production systems, healthcare, and daily activity and play an important part in decision making. This has an impact on future designs and the role of designers. Responsible designers with a holistic perspective are needed. The book highlights several aspects of design thinking such as Information Design and Critical Design. The meaning of culture, gender and disabilities are also discussed. The functions of Information Design are changing from ‘showing the way’, instruction manuals and graphic design. It will affect among others, healthcare technology, smart products and Industry 4.0. Design thinking perspective that includes users from the entire chain and from the producer to the end user of the product or service, is needed. This will also require gender and culture issues to be taken into consideration in designing products and services. Design thinking methods and critical aspects of design will contribute to an inclusive society.




Making Strategy


Book Description

′Demystifies strategy making while at the same time deepening our understanding of what the process entails. Their work is a marvellous guide for those striving to make sense of complexity′ - Karl E. Weick, Rensis Likert Distinguished University Professor of Organizational Behavior and Psychology, University of Michigan ′This book is at the very cutting edge of strategic management theory and yet also of immense practical use. It is truly a rare and stunning achievement′ - John M Bryson, McKnight Presidential Professor of Planning and Public Affairs, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota ′Using this book enabled me to facilitate a multicultural team of seven managers so that they very quickly got to grips with the challenges and opportunities facing the organization and developed a realistic workable strategy, whilst at the same time building a real sense of team cohesion and the feeling that individuals had been listened to′ - Alison Devine, Director, British Council, Taipai This lucid and highly-accessible text addresses the challenges of how to build a robust and implementable strategy. Strategy making is seen as something relevant to managers of departments, divisions, SME′s, as well as the top management teams of public and for-profit organizations. Four key routes to creating a strategy are discussed. These routes, when taken together, provide a powerful means for agreeing a negotiated strategy, and comprise: strategic issue management, agreeing organizational purpose, competitiveness from the exploitation and protection of distinctiveness, and the strategic management of stakeholders. The designs have been used extensively, in a wide range of countries, by management teams in all types of organisations.




Planning Under Pressure


Book Description

Planning under Pressure offers managers, planners, consultants and students a comprehensive and authoritative guide to the Strategic Choice Approach, which has gradually been attracting worldwide recognition as a fresh, versatile and practical approach to collaborative decision-making under uncertainty. Starting from basic principles, the book uses helpful diagrams and clear explanations to demonstrate practical ways of approaching daunting decision problems; of devising possible ways forward; and of working effectively towards agreed courses of action. Along he way, decision makers are helped to cope with diverse sources of uncertainty – technical, political, managerial – in a strategic manner. In this extended third edition, the authors have added short contributions from 21 users from seven countries. These new contributors present lessons from their varied experiences in adapting the Strategic Choice Approach to guide decision-making and learning in settings ranging from the re-routing of a controversial city carnival procession to national policy for the management of nuclear waste.




Enlightened Planning


Book Description

Strategy, risk management and project management are often considered separately by those applying their principles—but at their most effective, all are dependent upon each other for success. Enlightened Planning teaches this holistic perspective and demonstrates how a synthesis of these approaches yields far greater opportunities. A strategic, calculated risk, for example, can be less inherently risky than chronic risk aversion over time. Here, a respected specialist and teacher demonstrates how to become an 'enlightened planner', one that is aware of project, strategy and risk concerns, and their potential interplay. Following the core principle of Keep It Simple Systematically, he shows how organised, systematic thought processes can demystify the complexities of decision-making when considering a huge variety of concerns at once. Supported throughout with real-life cases from the author’s considerable experiences with commercial organisations, it is also supported by a website containing even more cases, learning and teaching materials. This book is essential reading for any practitioner specialising in risk management, project management or strategy; as well as those teachers or participants in executive programmes.