Rational Expectations and Commodity Price Forecasts
Author : Boum-Jong Choe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 16,12 MB
Release :
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Boum-Jong Choe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 16,12 MB
Release :
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 33,80 MB
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226531929
A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 44,26 MB
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1135179778
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : B.R. Munier
Publisher : IOS Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 19,72 MB
Release : 2012-04-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1614990379
The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 613 pages
File Size : 28,3 MB
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226978923
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Boum Jong Choe
Publisher :
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 15,19 MB
Release : 1990
Category : Agricultural prices
ISBN :
Forecasts for the primary commodity market by the Bank's International Commodity Markets Division - with significant but not excessive adaptation to spot- price movements - probably are reasonable, optimal short- term forecasts, superior to "naive" forecasts or futures prices.
Author : Robert E. Lucas
Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
Page : 335 pages
File Size : 35,54 MB
Release : 1988
Category :
ISBN : 1452908281
Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 47,88 MB
Release : 2011-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1139501976
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Author : Mark Gertler
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 436 pages
File Size : 23,28 MB
Release : 2004
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262572217
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Author : Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher : Springer
Page : 620 pages
File Size : 41,32 MB
Release : 2016-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3319282018
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.