Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015: Western Hemisphere Department


Book Description

The economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean remains very challenging. Regional growth is projected to decline for a fifth consecutive year in 2015, dipping below 1 percent. Weakness is concentrated among South America's commodity exporters, where falling global commodity prices have compounded country-specific challenges. Meanwhile, growth is projected to be steady or stronger for most of the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico, supported by lower oil bills for importers and robust economic recovery in the United States. The analysis in this report examines core challenges facing the region: the impact of lower commodity prices on fiscal and external positions, the drivers of the slowdown in investment, and the role of economic diversification for longer-term growth prospects.




Global Economic Prospects, January 2016


Book Description

The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.




Politics Latin America


Book Description

Politics Latin America examines the role of Latin America in the world and its importance to the study of politics with particular emphasis on the institutions and processes that exist to guarantee democracy and the forces that threaten to compromise it. Now in its third edition and fully revised to reflect recent developments in the region, Politics Latin America provides students and teachers with an accessible overview of the region’s unique political and economic landscape, covering every aspect of governance in its 21 countries. The book examines the international relations of Latin American states as they seek to carve out a role in an increasingly globalised world and will be an ideal introduction for undergraduate courses in Latin American politics, comparative politics, and other disciplines. This new edition will include: updated references to scholarship and debates; new themes such as environmental rights, women presidents, the Latin American Pope, Afro-Latinos, and the politics of sexual diversity; examination of demographic change and social movements; a new chapter on environmental economics and sustainable development. This book is essential reading for undergraduates taking courses in Latin American Politics.




International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2015


Book Description

The past year has been a time of unexpected challenges for the international community. Amid the continued focus on spurring stronger and more inclusive growth and strengthening global cooperation, the IMF faced economic developments that required rapid adjustments. Highlights of the IMF’s work during the year included insight into the international impact of falling oil prices, financing and policy advice for countries in difficulties, emergency funding to combat the Ebola crisis in West Africa, a new relief fund for the poor and most vulnerable countries hit by natural or public health disasters, research on fiscal policy to reduce inequality, free online training for the public and government officials, and online statistical data free of charge for all users. This report covers the work of the IMF’s Executive Board and contains financial statements for the year May 1, 2014, to April 30, 2015. It describes the IMF’s support for its 188 member countries, with an emphasis on the core areas of IMF responsibility.




Colombia


Book Description

Colombia: Selected Issues




Global Economic Prospects, January 2017


Book Description

Stagnant global trade, subdued investment, and heightened policy uncertainty marked another difficult year for the world economy. A subdued recovery is expected for 2017, with receding obstacles to activity in commodity exporters and solid domestic demand in commodity importers. Weak investment is weighing on medium-term prospects across many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Although fiscal stimulus in major economies, if implemented, may boost global growth above expectations, risks to growth forecasts remain tilted to the downside. Important downside risks stem from heightened policy uncertainty in major economies. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.




Potential Growth in Colombia


Book Description

This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.




Labor Force Participation in Chile


Book Description

Gains in labor force participation rates in Chile have slowed in recent years. We examine their determinants using a cohort-model analysis. Allowing for both age- and cohort-specific effects in the context of a seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) approach, we find that age factors play an important role in determining participation decisions, especially for males. For females, we find that strong positive time trends dominate the downward pressure from demographics, although those trends have recently dissipated. In addition, we find that both cohort effects and the business cycle shape participation decisions. Using our cohort-based analysis, we construct projections of participation rates, which suggest population aging will put downward pressure on labor inputs, and thus potential output, in coming years. Further increases in female labor force participation—supported by policies— could more than offset the downward pressure from demographics.




Global Economic Prospects, January 2018


Book Description

The global economy is in a broad-based cyclical recovery. Investment, manufacturing and trade are on the rebound. Financing conditions are benign, monetary policies are generally accommodative, and the worst impacts of the recent commodity price collapse have begun to dissipate. However, the global economic outlook remains clouded by a number of risks. These include the possibility of financial market disruptions, rising protectionist sentiment, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is evidence of subdued productivity and slowing potential growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the causes of the broad-based slowing of potential growth and suggests remedies. The report also contains Special Focus sections on the impact of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse and the relationship between education demographics and global inequality. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.




Financialisation in Latin America


Book Description

Financial capital continues to dominate Western economic organisations, despite major financial and economic crises. While these have not affected Latin American countries in the same way, other economic problems emerged after the reversion of loose monetary policies that debilitated the export-led growth model. This book discusses the issue of the financialised globalisation model in Latin America, looking at the region’s relationship with the international market. This edited collection is divided into three main sections. The first section discusses regional trends highlighting issues of trade and payments in financialised economies, the impact on deindustrialisation, its effect on inequality, external capital movements and monetary policies. The second section analyses the failure of comparative advantages of the export-led model in Colombia, Argentina and Mexico. Finally, the last section deals with the growth of financial balance sheets in small and developing economies such as Chile; how growth, investment and big corporation evolution were affected in Brazil and Mexico; and the effects of foreign exchange activity in Mexico. Through these discussions, this book aims to deepen the understanding of the crisis of financialisation and the export-led model, raising the question of whether it is possible for this model to continue or if it requires major readjustments to unfold economic growth. This book provides a distinctive analysis of the financialisation mechanisms in developing countries in order to emphasise affinities and differences between the countries of the region in productive and financial terms. It will be of great interest to economic and social science scholars and students, to journalists specialising on economic and development issues, and, more importantly, to policy makers.