Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth


Book Description

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.




The Growth Report


Book Description

The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.




World Development Report 2019


Book Description

Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.




Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management


Book Description

Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.




International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021


Book Description

A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.




Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence


Book Description

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.




People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region


Book Description

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that with a soft global trade environment and a downturn in tourism arrivals from Mainland China, the growth rate of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is expected to have slowed to 1.5 percent in 2016. Growth is likely to pick up modestly to about 2 percent in 2017, with private consumption continuing to be a main driver supported by a steady labor market. The current account surplus remained below 3 percent of GDP. Over the longer term, aging pressures may weaken the structural fiscal position, requiring fiscal planning to alleviate the decline, and a housing supply shortage also needs to be tackled.




Beyond the Annual Budget


Book Description

Beyond the Annual Budget is a comprehensive review of country experience with Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEFs) worldwide. It looks at countries both with and without MTEFs over the period 1990 to 2008 to obtain results about their impact on fiscal performance.




A City Mismanaged


Book Description

A City Mismanaged traces the collapse of good governance in Hong Kong, explains its causes, and exposes the damaging impact on the community’s quality of life. Leo Goodstadt argues that the current well-being and future survival of Hong Kong have been threatened by disastrous policy decisions made by chief executives and their principal officials. Individual chapters look at the most shocking examples of mismanagement: the government’s refusal to implement the Basic Law in full; official reluctance to halt the large-scale dilapidation of private sector homes into accommodation unfit for habitation; and ministerial toleration of the rise of new slums. Mismanagement of economic relations with Mainland China is shown to have created severe business losses. Goodstadt’s riveting investigations include extensive scandals in the post-secondary education sector and how lives are at risk because of the inadequate staff levels and limited funding allocated to key government departments. This book offers a unique and very powerful account of Hong Kong’s struggle to survive. ‘Goodstadt demonstrates how the neglect of social rights in managing the SAR has brought about serious consequences through the discussion of housing, medical services, and education. A highly readable title with a lot of interesting arguments for those who really care about Hong Kong.’ —Lui Tai-lok, Department of Asian and Policy Studies, Education University of Hong Kong ‘Goodstadt gives a well-grounded and relentless rebuke of the HKSAR government for failing to safeguard lives, quality of living and the interests of its people in the past twenty years. It is a poignant siren that calls for reflection and correction.’ —Christine M. S. Fang, Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong ‘Goodstadt utilizes his long experience in public policy in Hong Kong to interpret the city’s mismanagement. He supplies a devastating critique of the fallacy of the approach taken by the Chief Executives and the senior leaders.’ —David R. Meyer, Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis




People’s Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region


Book Description

This Selected Issues paper examines medium-term fiscal prospects and policy recommendations for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Hong Kong SAR’s fiscal framework has worked well over the last 20 years but challenges have emerged that will strain the fiscal position in the medium to long term. Consequently, while fiscal space is ample currently, it could become gradually constrained over time. The fiscal rule should be implemented flexibly and revenue mobilization needs to be considered down the road. On the expenditure side, containment will be hard, given rapid aging and still high inequality. The challenge will be to maintain investment and boost land supply while increasing social spending to guarantee that those who need support are effectively protected.