Report on the Measurement of International Capital Flows


Book Description

The Report evaluates statistical practices relating to the measurement of international capital flows. In particular, the principal sources of statistical descrepancies in the component categories of the capital account in the global balance of payments are addressed.




Report on the Measurement of International Capital Flows


Book Description

The Background Papers gathers together a number of studies that were prepared as research to the final report. Although not a part of the report itself, these papers provide detail on a number of issues grouped together here by general topic; data sources and methodology, direct investment, portfolio investment, international banking statistics, and other capital flows.




International Capital Flows


Book Description

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.




Report on the Measurement of International Capital Flows


Book Description

The Background Papers gathers together a number of studies that were prepared as research to the final report. Although not a part of the report itself, these papers provide detail on a number of issues grouped together here by general topic; data sources and methodology, direct investment, portfolio investment, international banking statistics, and other capital flows.




The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets


Book Description

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.




International Capital Flow Pressures


Book Description

This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.




Growth from International Capital Flows


Book Description

Recent commentary has downplayed the growth dividend from international financial integration, highlighting the possibly negative correlation between capital inflows and long-run growth. This paper presents new evidence consistent with standard economic theory and a more benign interpretation of cross-border private capital flows. The key observation is that a country’s growth volatility changes over time. With volatility below a threshold, an inflow of foreign capital has promoted growth. However, during periods of volatile growth, more flows have been associated with slower growth. Volatility levels and changes reflect an interaction of domestic production and institutional structures with global factors.




International Capital Flows and Development


Book Description

Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? We revisit the Lucas paradox and explore the role of capital account restrictions in shaping capital flows at various stages of economic development. We find that, when accounting for the degree of capital account openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory is confirmed: less developed countries tend to experience net capital inflows and more developed countries tend to experience net capital outflows, conditional of various countries’ characteristics. The findings are driven by foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, and to some extent by loans to the private sector.




Capital Flow Deflection


Book Description

This paper focuses on the coordination problem among borrowing countries imposing controls on capital infl ows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead to a policy response. We then test the theory using data on inflow restrictions and gross capital inflows for a large sample of developing countries between 1995 and 2009. Our estimation yields strong evidence that capital controls deflect capital flows to other borrowing countries with similar economic characteristics. Notwithstanding these strong cross-border spillover effects, we do not find evidence of a policy response.




International Capital Flows and the Lucas Paradox


Book Description

This book offers a comprehensive analysis of the debates on international capital flows, and presents a new evidence-based answer to the long-standing question of why capital doesn’t tend to flow from rich to poor countries as predicted by standard neoclassical theory – a puzzle known as the Lucas paradox. Further, the book reviews alternative approaches to conventional estimates of the marginal product of capital (MPK) and considers whether these estimates actually help us understand observed international capital flows. A rigorous quantitative approach is subsequently used to provide clear empirical evidence on the determinants of capital flows across borders. The findings of this empirical analysis suggest that generous economic policies on capital account convertibility are more influential than differences in institutional quality in terms of determining international capital flows. In closing, the relative importance of various types of political risk (e.g. expropriation and corruption) is examined. After determining that expropriation risk has one of the greatest effects on foreign direct investment (FDI), the book proposes an appealingly intuitive explanation for the lack of FDI flows to many capital-scarce developing countries.