Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics


Book Description

In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation. De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets




The Economics of Artificial Intelligence


Book Description

A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.




NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009


Book Description

The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 address how heterogeneous beliefs interact with equilibrium leverage and potentially lead to leverage cycles, the validity of alternative hypotheses about the reason for the recent increase in foreclosures on residential mortgages, the credit rating crisis, quantitative implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, and noisy business cycles.




Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics


Book Description

Introduction.Big data for twenty-first-century economic statistics: the future is now /Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian C. Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro --Toward comprehensive use of big data in economic statistics.Reengineering key national economic indicators /Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro ;Big data in the US consumer price index: experiences and plans /Crystal G. Konny, Brendan K. Williams, and David M. Friedman ;Improving retail trade data products using alternative data sources /Rebecca J. Hutchinson ;From transaction data to economic statistics: constructing real-time, high-frequency, geographic measures of consumer spending /Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm ;Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: the case of payroll employment data /Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz --Uses of big data for classification.Transforming naturally occurring text data into economic statistics: the case of online job vacancy postings /Arthur Turrell, Bradley Speigner, Jyldyz Djumalieva, David Copple, and James Thurgood ;Automating response evaluation for franchising questions on the 2017 economic census /Joseph Staudt, Yifang Wei, Lisa Singh, Shawn Klimek, J. Bradford Jensen, and Andrew Baer ;Using public data to generate industrial classification codes /John Cuffe, Sudip Bhattacharjee, Ugochukwu Etudo, Justin C. Smith, Nevada Basdeo, Nathaniel Burbank, and Shawn R. Roberts --Uses of big data for sectoral measurement.Nowcasting the local economy: using Yelp data to measure economic activity /Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca ;Unit values for import and export price indexes: a proof of concept /Don A. Fast and Susan E. Fleck ;Quantifying productivity growth in the delivery of important episodes of care within the Medicare program using insurance claims and administrative data /John A. Romley, Abe Dunn, Dana Goldman, and Neeraj Sood ;Valuing housing services in the era of big data: a user cost approach leveraging Zillow microdata /Marina Gindelsky, Jeremy G. Moulton, and Scott A. Wentland --Methodological challenges and advances.Off to the races: a comparison of machine learning and alternative data for predicting economic indicators /Jeffrey C. Chen, Abe Dunn, Kyle Hood, Alexander Driessen, and Andrea Batch ;A machine learning analysis of seasonal and cyclical sales in weekly scanner data /Rishab Guha and Serena Ng ;Estimating the benefits of new products /W. Erwin Diewert and Robert C. Feenstra.




NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007


Book Description

The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.




Innovation and Public Policy


Book Description

A calculation of the social returns to innovation /Benjamin F. Jones and Lawrence H. Summers --Innovation and human capital policy /John Van Reenen --Immigration policy levers for US innovation and start-ups /Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr --Scientific grant funding /Pierre Azoulay and Danielle Li --Tax policy for innovation /Bronwyn H. Hall --Taxation and innovation: what do we know? /Ufuk Akcigit and Stefanie Stantcheva --Government incentives for entrepreneurship /Josh Lerner.




Law and Macroeconomics


Book Description

A distinguished Yale economist and legal scholar’s argument that law, of all things, has the potential to rescue us from the next economic crisis. After the economic crisis of 2008, private-sector spending took nearly a decade to recover. Yair Listokin thinks we can respond more quickly to the next meltdown by reviving and refashioning a policy approach whose proven success is too rarely acknowledged. Harking back to New Deal regulatory agencies, Listokin proposes that we take seriously law’s ability to function as a macroeconomic tool, capable of stimulating demand when needed and relieving demand when it threatens to overheat economies. Listokin makes his case by looking at both positive and cautionary examples, going back to the New Deal and including the Keystone Pipeline, the constitutionally fraught bond-buying program unveiled by the European Central Bank at the nadir of the Eurozone crisis, the ongoing Greek crisis, and the experience of U.S. price controls in the 1970s. History has taught us that law is an unwieldy instrument of macroeconomic policy, but Listokin argues that under certain conditions it offers a vital alternative to the monetary and fiscal policy tools that stretch the legitimacy of technocratic central banks near their breaking point while leaving the rest of us waiting and wallowing.




Behavioral Law and Economics


Book Description

In the past few decades, economic analysis of law has been challenged by a growing body of experimental and empirical studies that attest to prevalent and systematic deviations from the assumptions of economic rationality. While the findings on bounded rationality and heuristics and biases were initially perceived as antithetical to standard economic and legal-economic analysis, over time they have been largely integrated into mainstream economic analysis, including economic analysis of law. Moreover, the impact of behavioral insights has long since transcended purely economic analysis of law: in recent years, the behavioral movement has become one of the most influential developments in legal scholarship in general. Behavioral Law and Economics offers a state-of-the-art overview of the field. Eyal Zamir and Doron Teichman survey the entire body of psychological research that lies at the basis of behavioral analysis of law, and critically evaluate the core methodological questions of this area of research. Following this, the book discusses the fundamental normative questions stemming from the psychological findings on bounded rationality, and explores their implications for setting the law's goals and designing the means to attain them. The book then provides a systematic and critical examination of the contributions of behavioral studies to all major fields of law including: property, contracts, consumer protection, torts, corporate, securities regulation, antitrust, administrative, constitutional, international, criminal, and evidence law, as well as to the behavior of key players in the legal arena: litigants and judicial decision-makers.




Behavioral Science in the Global Arena


Book Description

Behavioral scientists are increasingly involved in international work through cross cultural research, conference presentations, and faculty exchanges. Psychology and social work NGOs work at the United Nations, both on providing professional consultation on timely issues, as well as advocating to promote human rights and sustainable development. Although this work at the United Nations is an important arena for behavioral scientists, this has been barely covered in the academic literature. "What are growing roles of psychology and the behavioral sciences at the United Nations today?" This first-ever volume brings together over 20 authors--both key experts and student interns--to answer this question. As the United Nations pursues its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the year 2030, behavioral scientists now occupy increasingly diverse roles to pursue evidence-based answers for these 17 timely SDGs. This panoramic yet concise 230-page volume is designed for students and professionals in the behavioral sciences, psychology and social work to provide state-of-the-art information on how behavioral scientists are addressing diverse global issues today. Each chapter offers a concise overview of a topic, including a glossary of current concepts, and citations to current research. ENDORSEMENTS "I am delighted to recommend this volume, which uncovers two important truths to the success of the UN. 1. The critical role of civil society that makes the UN more humane. 2. The important role of behavioral sciences in shaping UN policies to produce successful outcomes. Because of the UN, we've not had a third world war, yet. Human Rights have expanded beyond belief of anyone who founded the UN 75 years ago." - Bruce Knotts, U.S. diplomat, author, and Chair of the U.N. DPI NGO Executive Committee "As this new volume describes, the world is a better place because of the United Nations - where most of the world comes together with diverse and lofty goals such as protecting the environment, promoting health, supporting equality, and maintaining peace. All of these major goals require interventions that sometimes maintain and sometimes change human behavior. National and international policies need to be informed by the best available research in the behavioral sciences. Our future depends on it." - Diane F. Halpern, PhD., Former President, American Psychological Association "Attaining the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 is a formidable challenge that can be furthered by a foundation of solid evidence. This book provides a base of relevant psychological knowledge that can inform policy and interventions in the achievement of those goals." - Judith A. Gibbons, PhD, Past-President, Interamerican Society of Psychology "The authors make a convincing case for the relevance of behavioral sciences to the work of the United Nations. Progress on women's rights, preparing for and recovering from natural disasters, adapting to climate change, improving child well-being and more all have behavioral dimensions. These must be addressed for the UN to make progress on its goals. By chronicling the involvements of psychology and social work in the United Nations, this volume will inspire students and practitioners to engage further in global work and advocacy." - Lynne Healy, PhD, International Association of Schools of Social Work "Behavioral Science in the Global Arena - a timely and significant volume about the role of psychologists at the UN addressing our contemporary social problems - i.e. human rights, social justice, climate and environmental change. As Congress, Takooshian, and Asper demonstrate, it is time for psychologists to move from their individual focus toward social change at a macro, diverse and global focus following the UN's 17 sustainable development goals for 2030. We need to acknowledge changing population demographics, growing mobility and aging in our population, and recognize the continued gender inequities and disparities among migrants salient today. No longer can we simply consider psychology's role in the aftermath of disaster, but to be proactive and on the forefront about counterterrorism, climate change, etc. to promote global action so that we think and act together toward shared social change." - Jean Lau Chin, EdD, ABPP, Past-President, International Division, American Psychological Association "As the UN celebrates its diamond anniversary, it is fitting that thinkers in psychology provide critical insights into psychology's engagement with the UN SDG Agenda. The authors have carefully considered the UN from many vantage points, especially behavioural. This important volume posits fresh ideas for psychology's role and future impact in the only global body that brings all governments together to tackle the social, economic, political and security factors that are essential for peace and collective human development in our fragile world." - Saths Cooper, PhD, Past-President, International Union of Psychological Scientists (IUPsyS) "I am very excited to see the publication of a much-needed book on the contribution of the behavioral sciences at the UN which highlights the role of social work. The editors have successfully illuminated how social workers have been increasingly involved in addressing international issues. Speaking as the current president of NASW, member of the International Federation of Social Workers Executive and as a social work educator, I am especially appreciative of the content on the long-term involvement that social workers have had in the work of the UN. This book is a gift to students who are increasingly seeking to become involved in international social work. I am especially impressed by the editors' commitment to promoting the professional development of students by having them co-author the chapters in the book with both academics and UN leaders. Well done!" - Kathryn Conley Wehrmann, PhD, LCSW, President, National Association of Social Workers (NASW)




NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018


Book Description

This volume contains six studies on current topics in macroeconomics. The first shows that while assuming rational expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning model can yield results similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium. The second explores the aggregate risk of the U.S. financial sector, and in particular whether it is safer now than before the 2008 financial crisis. The third analyzes “factorless income,” output that is not measured as capital or labor income. Next, a study argues that the financial crisis increased the perceived risk of a very bad economic and financial outcome, and explores the propagation of large, rare shocks. The next paper documents the substantial recent changes in the manufacturing sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans since 2000. The last paper analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic effects of border adjustment taxes.