Author : Lara Buchak
Publisher :
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 15,18 MB
Release : 2013-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0199672164
Lara Buchak sets out a new account of rational decision-making in the face of risk. She argues that the orthodox view (expected utility theory) is too narrow, and suggests an alternative, more permissive theory: one that allows individuals to pay attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario, and vindicates the ordinary decision-maker.
Author : Carol A. Heimer
Publisher : Univ of California Press
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 25,7 MB
Release : 2023-04-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0520318463
This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1985.
Author : Carlo C. Jaeger
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 10,1 MB
Release : 2013-11-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1134203020
Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association
Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 283 pages
File Size : 48,75 MB
Release : 2020-07-10
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0190089431
Good decisions account for risks. For example, the risk of an accident while driving in the rain makes a reasonable driver decide to slow down. While risk is a large topic in theoretical disciplines such as economics and psychology, as well as in practical disciplines such as medicine and finance, philosophy has a unique contribution to make in developing a normative theory of risk that states what risk is, and to what extent our responses to it are rational. Weirich here develops a philosophical theory of the rationality of responses to risk. He first distinguishes two types of risk: first, a chance of a bad event, and second, an act's risk in relation to its possible outcomes. He argues that this distinction has normative significance in the sense that one's attitudes towards these types of risks - and how one acts on them - are governed by different general principles of rationality. Consequently, a comprehensive account of risk must not only characterize rational responses to risk but also explain why these responses are rational. Weirich explains how, for a rational ideal agent, the expected utilities of the acts available in a decision problem explain the agent's preferences among the acts. As a result, maximizing expected utility is just following preferences among the acts. His view takes an act's expected utility, not just as a feature of a representation of preferences among acts, but also as a factor in the explanation of preferences among acts. The book's precise formulation of general standards of rationality for attitudes and for acts, and its rigorous argumentation for these standards, make it philosophical; but while mainly of interest to philosophers, its broader arguments will contribute to the conceptual foundations of studies of risk in all disciplines that study it.
Author : Paul Anand
Publisher : Oxford University Press on Demand
Page : 161 pages
File Size : 11,39 MB
Release : 1995
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780198774426
In this book, Paul Anand examines the normative interpretation of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). He tests the philosophical and logical basis for associating SEU with rational choice. Decision theorists have increasingly come to accept the experimental evidence that subjects systematicallyviolate the axiomatic assumptions of SEU, and as a result the past decade has witnessed an explosion of mathematical models that seek to capture this behaviour. A current issue is whether axioms of SEU really are canons of rationality. Anand discusses whether the new decision-theoretic models aremore than just accounts of irrational behaviour. The main themes of the book are that, empirically, SEU is false, and that normatively it imposes unnecessary constraints on rational agency. Problems with Bayesianism are introduced and it is shown that useful distinctions between risk and uncertainty (in a Keynesian sense) can be made. Some of theradical methodological changes in economics that underpin theoretical developments in decision theory and economics are also discussed.
Author : Nicholas Rescher
Publisher : Springer
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 17,84 MB
Release : 2021-10-05
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9783030785017
Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors—including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck—are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.
Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 31,70 MB
Release : 2006-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1602060053
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author : Harry M. Markowitz
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
Page : 270 pages
File Size : 32,51 MB
Release : 2013-09-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0071817948
The Nobel Prize-winning Father of Modern Portfolio Theory re-introduces his theories for the current world of investing Legendary economist Harry M. Markowitz provides the insight and methods you need to build a portfolio that generates strong returns for the long run In Risk-Return Analysis, Markowitz corrects common misunderstandings about Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to help advanced financial practitioners dramatically improve their decision making. In this first volume of a groundbreaking four-part series sure to draw the attention of anyone interested in MPT, Markowitz provides the criteria necessary for judging among risk-measures; surveys a half-century of literature (nearly all of which has been ignored by textbooks) on the applicability of MPT; and presents an empirical study of which functions of mean and some risk-measure is best for those who seek to maximize return in the long run. Harry M. Markowitz is a Nobel Laureate and the father of Modern Portfolio Theory.
Author : Mark Machina
Publisher : Newnes
Page : 897 pages
File Size : 40,28 MB
Release : 2013-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0444536868
The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. - Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance - Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings - Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 404 pages
File Size : 23,73 MB
Release : 2002-07-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262571647
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
