Safety and Reliability of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent


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U.S. nuclear policy in the 21st century a fresh look at national strategy and requirements: final report


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Sweeping changes are occurring in the international system, presenting the United States with both opportunities and challenges. The East-West strategic rivalry that dominated the global security environment for over forty years has been fundamentally and, in a number of critical ways, irreversibly altered. Yet the world continues to be unpredictable and dangerous. Relations with Russia and China have improved dramatically in the last ten years but remain uncertain. Both states continue to emphasize and modernize their nuclear arsenals. In other regions of vital interest to the United States, potential adversaries increasingly have at their disposal advanced conventional and unconventional capabilities, as well as weapons of mass destruction and the means for their delivery. Together, these and other factors, such as the ongoing revolution in military technology, have engendered major adjustments in U.S. national security policy and in the strategy and forces that support U.S. security interests. A series of U.S. government analyses, including the Nuclear Posture Review and the Quadrennial Defense Review, has guided the restructuring of U.S. conventional forces and provided the basis for the late 1997 Presidential Decision Directive on nuclear weapons policy. Further analyses and adjustments will certainly follow. As a contribution to this dynamic process, this report assesses the rationale and requirements for U.S. nuclear weapons, and the infrastructure and people that are critical to their sustainment, in the current and future security environment. By so doing, the report is intended to promote greater understanding of the issues and the measures that will be necessary to sustain deterrence in an uncertain future. The American public and its leadership in both the Executive and Legislative branches must remain informed, involved, and supportive. Absent concerted and continuing high-level attention to the policies and programs supporting its nuclear forces, 7.




The Limits of Safety


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Environmental tragedies such as Chernobyl and the Exxon Valdez remind us that catastrophic accidents are always possible in a world full of hazardous technologies. Yet, the apparently excellent safety record with nuclear weapons has led scholars, policy-makers, and the public alike to believe that nuclear arsenals can serve as a secure deterrent for the foreseeable future. In this provocative book, Scott Sagan challenges such optimism. Sagan's research into formerly classified archives penetrates the veil of safety that has surrounded U.S. nuclear weapons and reveals a hidden history of frightening "close calls" to disaster.




Safety and Reliability of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent


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Nuclear Modernization


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1. Nuclear Deterrence is the #1 Priority Mission of the Department of Defense. 2. We Must Recognize the Reality that Foreign Nuclear Threats are Growing. 3. Our Deterrent Must Be Modernized to Remain Credible—Delay is Not an Option. 4. As the Foundation of Our Nation’s Security, Our Nuclear Forces are Affordable. 5. Effective Arms Control and Nuclear Nonproliferation Efforts Contribute to Our Security.




Doctrine for Joint Operations


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National Security and Nuclear Weapons: Maintaining Deterrence in the 21st Century


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A principal national security goal of the United States is to deter aggression against ourselves and our allies. Every American administration since President Truman has formulated a U.S. national security policy that makes clear the essential role that nuclear weapons play in maintaining deterrence. It is the policy of this Administration to achieve an effective strategic deterrent at the lowest level of nuclear weapons consistent with our national security and our commitments to allies. In 2001, President Bush directed that the United States reduce the number of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons from about 6,000 to 1,700-2,200 by 2012 -- a two-thirds reduction. Corresponding reductions in the nuclear stockpile will result in the lowest level since the Eisenhower Administration. However, these reductions in the stockpile are only achievable with a responsive nuclear infrastructure. Successive efforts at extending the service life of the current inventory of weapons risks incorporating technical changes that could, over time, inadvertently undermine their reliability and performance. As the United States continues to observe a moratorium on underground nuclear testing, it becomes increasingly difficult to certify the existing stockpile of weapons. Moreover, it is difficult to incorporate modern safety and security features into Cold War-era weapon designs. To address these issues of sustainability, safety, security, and reliability, and to achieve a smaller yet credible nuclear deterrent force, the United States needs to invest in the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program. RRW will make U.S. nuclear weapons safer and more secure against unauthorized use by incorporating state-of-the-art security features that cannot be retro-fitted to older weapons. RRW designs will provide more favorable reliability and performance margins than those currently in the stockpile, and will be less sensitive to incremental aging effects or manufacturing variances.