Forecasting: principles and practice


Book Description

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.




Elements of Manufacturing, Distribution and Logistics


Book Description

This book describes a variety of quantitative methods that are vital to planning and control in the operations of the industrial world, from suppliers to manufacturing plants to distribution centers and to the dealers and stores. The topics include: forecasting, measuring forecast error, determining the order quantity, safety stock, when and how much inventory to replenish, all this for individual items and for a distribution network where the items are housed in multiple locations. Further quantitative methods are: manufacturing control, just-in-time, assembly, statistical process control, distribution network, supply chain management, transportation and reverse logistics. The methods are proven, practical and doable for most applications. The material in Elements of Manufacturing, Distribution and Logistics presents topics that people want and should know in the work place. The presentation is easy to read for students and practitioners. There is little need to delve into difficult mathematical relationships, and numerical examples are presented throughout to guide the reader on applications. Practitioners will be able to apply the methods learned to the systems in their locations, and the typical professional will want the book on their bookshelf for reference. Everyone in professional organizations like APICS, DSI and INFORMS; MBA graduates, people in industry, and students in management science, business and industrial engineering will find this book valuable.




Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector


Book Description

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector" that was published in Energies




Manuals Combined: U.S. Navy Aerographer’s Mate Modules 1-4


Book Description

AG MODULE 1, NAVEDTRA 14269, Surface Weather Observations This module covers the basic procedures that are involved with conducting surface weather observations. It begins with a discussion of surface observation elements, followed by a description of primary and backup observation equipment that is used aboard ships and at shore stations. Module 1 also includes a complete explanation of how to record and encode surface METAR observations using WMO and NAVMETOCCOM guidelines. The module concludes with a description of WMO plotting models and procedures. AG MODULE 2, NAVEDTRA 14270, Miscellaneous Observations and Codes This module concentrates on the observation procedures, equipment, and codes associated with upper-air observations and bathythermograph observations. Module 2 also discusses aviation weather codes, such as TAFs and PIREPs, and includes a chapter on surf observation procedures. Radiological fallout and chemical contamination plotting procedures are also explained. AG MODULE 3, NAVEDTRA 14271, Environmental Satellites and Weather Radar This module describes the various type of environmental satellites, satellite imagery, and associated terminology. It also discusses satellite receiving equipment. In addition, Module 3 contains information on the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). It includes a discussion of electromagnetic energy and radar propagation theory, and explains the basic principles of Doppler radar. The module also describes the configuration and operation of the WSR-88D, as well as WSR-88D products. AG MODULE 4, NAVEDTRA 14272, Environmental Communications and Administration This module covers several of the most widely used environmental communications systems within the METOC community. It also describes the software programs and products associated with these systems. The module concludes with a discussion of basic administration procedures.




Service Parts Management


Book Description

With the pressure of time-based competition increasing, and customers demanding faster service, availability of service parts becomes a critical component of manufacturing and servicing operations. Service Parts Management first focuses on intermittent demand forecasting and then on the management of service parts inventories. It guides researchers and practitioners in finding better management solutions to their problems and is both an excellent reference for key concepts and a leading resource for further research. Demand forecasting techniques are presented for parametric and nonparametric approaches, and multi echelon cases and inventory pooling are also considered. Inventory control is examined in the continuous and periodic review cases, while the following are all examined in the context of forecasting: • error measures, • distributional assumptions, and • decision trees. Service Parts Management provides the reader with an overview and a detailed treatment of the current state of the research available on the forecasting and inventory management of items with intermittent demand. It is a comprehensive review of service parts management and provides a starting point for researchers, postgraduate students, and anyone interested in forecasting or managing inventory.




Fundamentals of Forecasting Using Excel


Book Description

Forecasting is an integral part of almost all business enterprises. This book provides readers with the tools to analyze their data, develop forecasting models and present the results in Excel. Progressing from data collection, data presentation, to a step-by-step development of the forecasting techniques, this essential text covers techniques that include but not limited to time series-moving average, exponential smoothing, trending, simple and multiple regression, and Box-Jenkins. And unlike other products of its kind that require either high-priced statistical software or Excel add-ins, this book does not require such software. It can be used both as a primary text and as a supplementary text. Highlights the use of Excel screen shots, data tables, and graphs. Features Full Scale Use of Excel in Forecasting without the Use of Specialized Forecast Packages Includes Excel templates. Emphasizes the practical application of forecasting. Provides coverage of Special Forecasting, including New Product Forecasting, Network Models Forecasting, Links to Input/Output Modeling, and Combination of Forecasting.







Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting


Book Description

Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.




Commercial Pilot Ground School Manual


Book Description

Theory knowledge required for Commercial Pilots in Canada, and prepares for the written examination.




Remote Pilot Certification Test Preparation


Book Description

Remote Pilot Certification Test Preparation" is an essential guide for aspiring drone pilots looking to pass the FAA's Part 107 Remote Pilot Certification Exam. This comprehensive book is designed to help you thoroughly prepare for the exam and gain a deep understanding of the regulations and knowledge required to safely operate drones for commercial purposes. Inside this book, you'll find: Detailed Coverage: The book covers all the essential topics you need to know to pass the exam, including airspace regulations, weather, drone operations, emergency procedures, and more. Practice Questions: To reinforce your understanding of the material, the book includes a wide range of practice questions and answers that mirror the format and content of the actual exam. FAA Regulations: You'll gain a clear understanding of the FAA regulations and rules that govern commercial drone operations, ensuring that you can operate your drone legally and safely. Test-Taking Tips: The book offers valuable tips and strategies for test day, helping you approach the exam with confidence and perform at your best. Whether you're a novice drone pilot or an experienced hobbyist looking to transition into commercial drone operations, "Remote Pilot Certification Test Preparation" is your comprehensive and reliable resource for acing the FAA's Part 107 certification exam and launching your career as a certified remote pilot. In addition, we continuously upload video lectures on YouTube to make it even easier for you to comprehend complex topics and prepare effectively for your certification.