Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : Chapman & Hall
Page : 110 pages
File Size : 25,58 MB
Release : 2006-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781584886563
Author : Bilal Ayyub
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 414 pages
File Size : 47,22 MB
Release : 1997-10-31
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780792380306
Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Author : Stuart A. Klugman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 33,25 MB
Release : 2014-08-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1118472020
Student Solutions Manual to Accompany Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fourth Edition. This volume is organised around the principle that much of actuarial science consists of the construction and analysis of mathematical models which describe the process by which funds flow into and out of an insurance system.
Author : Faith A. Morrison
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 44,4 MB
Release : 2021-01-07
Category : Computers
ISBN : 1108478352
Build the skills for determining appropriate error limits for quantities that matter with this essential toolkit. Understand how to handle a complete project and how uncertainty enters into various steps. Provides a systematic, worksheet-based process to determine error limits on measured quantities, and all likely sources of uncertainty are explored, measured or estimated. Features instructions on how to carry out error analysis using Excel and MATLAB®, making previously tedious calculations easy. Whether you are new to the sciences or an experienced engineer, this useful resource provides a practical approach to performing error analysis. Suitable as a text for a junior or senior level laboratory course in aerospace, chemical and mechanical engineering, and for professionals.
Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 434 pages
File Size : 25,66 MB
Release : 2013-11-26
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1118650239
Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.
Author : Stuart A. Klugman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 17,66 MB
Release : 2013-08-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1118343565
An essential resource for constructing and analyzing advanced actuarial models Loss Models: Further Topics presents extended coverage of modeling through the use of tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. The book uses these methods to construct and evaluate actuarial models in the fields of insurance and business. Providing an advanced study of actuarial methods, the book features extended discussions of risk modeling and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk. Loss Models: Further Topics contains additional material to accompany the Fourth Edition of Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, such as: Extreme value distributions Coxian and related distributions Mixed Erlang distributions Computational and analytical methods for aggregate claim models Counting processes Compound distributions with time-dependent claim amounts Copula models Continuous time ruin models Interpolation and smoothing The book is an essential reference for practicing actuaries and actuarial researchers who want to go beyond the material required for actuarial qualification. Loss Models: Further Topics is also an excellent resource for graduate students in the actuarial field.
Author : Sanford Weisberg
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 11,52 MB
Release : 2013-11-25
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1118594851
Praise for the Third Edition "...this is an excellent book which could easily be used as a course text..." —International Statistical Institute The Fourth Edition of Applied Linear Regression provides a thorough update of the basic theory and methodology of linear regression modeling. Demonstrating the practical applications of linear regression analysis techniques, the Fourth Edition uses interesting, real-world exercises and examples. Stressing central concepts such as model building, understanding parameters, assessing fit and reliability, and drawing conclusions, the new edition illustrates how to develop estimation, confidence, and testing procedures primarily through the use of least squares regression. While maintaining the accessible appeal of each previous edition,Applied Linear Regression, Fourth Edition features: Graphical methods stressed in the initial exploratory phase, analysis phase, and summarization phase of an analysis In-depth coverage of parameter estimates in both simple and complex models, transformations, and regression diagnostics Newly added material on topics including testing, ANOVA, and variance assumptions Updated methodology, such as bootstrapping, cross-validation binomial and Poisson regression, and modern model selection methods Applied Linear Regression, Fourth Edition is an excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level students, as well as an appropriate reference guide for practitioners and applied statisticians in engineering, business administration, economics, and the social sciences.
Author : Karl Johan Åström
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : pages
File Size : 28,77 MB
Release : 2021-02-02
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 069121347X
The essential introduction to the principles and applications of feedback systems—now fully revised and expanded This textbook covers the mathematics needed to model, analyze, and design feedback systems. Now more user-friendly than ever, this revised and expanded edition of Feedback Systems is a one-volume resource for students and researchers in mathematics and engineering. It has applications across a range of disciplines that utilize feedback in physical, biological, information, and economic systems. Karl Åström and Richard Murray use techniques from physics, computer science, and operations research to introduce control-oriented modeling. They begin with state space tools for analysis and design, including stability of solutions, Lyapunov functions, reachability, state feedback observability, and estimators. The matrix exponential plays a central role in the analysis of linear control systems, allowing a concise development of many of the key concepts for this class of models. Åström and Murray then develop and explain tools in the frequency domain, including transfer functions, Nyquist analysis, PID control, frequency domain design, and robustness. Features a new chapter on design principles and tools, illustrating the types of problems that can be solved using feedback Includes a new chapter on fundamental limits and new material on the Routh-Hurwitz criterion and root locus plots Provides exercises at the end of every chapter Comes with an electronic solutions manual An ideal textbook for undergraduate and graduate students Indispensable for researchers seeking a self-contained resource on control theory
Author : Klaus Hinkelmann
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 598 pages
File Size : 46,35 MB
Release : 2012-02-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0470530685
Provides timely applications, modifications, and extensions of experimental designs for a variety of disciplines Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3: Special Designs and Applications continues building upon the philosophical foundations of experimental design by providing important, modern applications of experimental design to the many fields that utilize them. The book also presents optimal and efficient designs for practice and covers key topics in current statistical research. Featuring contributions from leading researchers and academics, the book demonstrates how the presented concepts are used across various fields from genetics and medicinal and pharmaceutical research to manufacturing, engineering, and national security. Each chapter includes an introduction followed by the historical background as well as in-depth procedures that aid in the construction and analysis of the discussed designs. Topical coverage includes: Genetic cross experiments, microarray experiments, and variety trials Clinical trials, group-sequential designs, and adaptive designs Fractional factorial and search, choice, and optimal designs for generalized linear models Computer experiments with applications to homeland security Robust parameter designs and split-plot type response surface designs Analysis of directional data experiments Throughout the book, illustrative and numerical examples utilize SAS®, JMP®, and R software programs to demonstrate the discussed techniques. Related data sets and software applications are available on the book's related FTP site. Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3 is an ideal textbook for graduate courses in experimental design and also serves as a practical, hands-on reference for statisticians and researchers across a wide array of subject areas, including biological sciences, engineering, medicine, and business.
Author : Steven K. Thompson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 470 pages
File Size : 39,86 MB
Release : 2012-02-08
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1118162943
Praise for the Second Edition "This book has never had a competitor. It is the only book that takes a broad approach to sampling . . . any good personal statistics library should include a copy of this book." —Technometrics "Well-written . . . an excellent book on an important subject. Highly recommended." —Choice "An ideal reference for scientific researchers and other professionals who use sampling." —Zentralblatt Math Features new developments in the field combined with all aspects of obtaining, interpreting, and using sample data Sampling provides an up-to-date treatment of both classical and modern sampling design and estimation methods, along with sampling methods for rare, clustered, and hard-to-detect populations. This Third Edition retains the general organization of the two previous editions, but incorporates extensive new material—sections, exercises, and examples—throughout. Inside, readers will find all-new approaches to explain the various techniques in the book; new figures to assist in better visualizing and comprehending underlying concepts such as the different sampling strategies; computing notes for sample selection, calculation of estimates, and simulations; and more. Organized into six sections, the book covers basic sampling, from simple random to unequal probability sampling; the use of auxiliary data with ratio and regression estimation; sufficient data, model, and design in practical sampling; useful designs such as stratified, cluster and systematic, multistage, double and network sampling; detectability methods for elusive populations; spatial sampling; and adaptive sampling designs. Featuring a broad range of topics, Sampling, Third Edition serves as a valuable reference on useful sampling and estimation methods for researchers in various fields of study, including biostatistics, ecology, and the health sciences. The book is also ideal for courses on statistical sampling at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
