Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future


Book Description

Southeast Asia is rapidly becoming a competitive space for geopolitical rivalries. The growth in China-U.S. strategic competition is creating deep anxiety among Southeast Asia leaders, China's rising power is felt across every corner of Southeast Asia, and many leaders are worried about the long-term implications of rising Chinese influence in the region. The United States' increasingly assertive approach towards China is welcomed by some governments, but the growth in tensions is creating deep anxiety about a possible new Cold War. How can the region prevent a repeat of the divisions and bitter rivalries of the previous Cold War? This book argues that Southeast Asia is emerging as an open, autonomous region, where small and middle powers can maintain their sovereignty and shape the regional order. Despite new superpower pressures, the region is moving towards a multi-polar order, with greater agency for Southeast Asian countries. The key to Southeast Asia's future may be other external powers – particularly Japan, Australia, India, and Europe – who can provide ASEAN governments with more diverse partnerships, enabling them to avoid the bipolar blocs of superpower rivalries. The book argues that external partners are helping to shape the geopolitical order by supporting ASEAN leadership and diluting the influence of great powers. Southeast Asian countries also have remarkable capacity to manage asymmetrical relations and balance external powers. The book describes the region's history of managing great power relations, drawing on historical and contemporary cases. By examining the dynamics between Southeast Asia and external powers, the book predicts that the region's future will look entirely different from its Cold War past.




The Contested Corners of Asia


Book Description

Subnational conflict is the most widespread, enduring, and deadly form of conflict in Asia. Over the past 20 years (1992-2012), there have been 26 subnational conflicts in South and Southeast Asia, affecting half of the countries in this region. Concerned about foreign interference, national governments limit external access to conflict areas by journalists, diplomats, and personnel from international development agencies and non-governmental organizations. As a result, many subnational conflict areas are poorly understood by outsiders and easily overshadowed by larger geopolitical issues, bilateral relations, and national development challenges. The interactions between conflict, politics, and aid in subnational conflict areas are a critical blind spot for aid programs. This study was conducted to help improve how development agencies address subnational conflicts.




Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future


Book Description

Southeast Asia is rapidly becoming a competitive space for geopolitical rivalries. The growth in China-U.S. strategic competition is creating deep anxiety among Southeast Asia leaders, China's rising power is felt across every corner of Southeast Asia, and many leaders are worried about the long-term implications of rising Chinese influence in the region. The United States' increasingly assertive approach towards China is welcomed by some governments, but the growth in tensions is creating deep anxiety about a possible new Cold War. How can the region prevent a repeat of the divisions and bitter rivalries of the previous Cold War? This book argues that Southeast Asia is emerging as an open, autonomous region, where small and middle powers can maintain their sovereignty and shape the regional order. Despite new superpower pressures, the region is moving towards a multi-polar order, with greater agency for Southeast Asian countries. The key to Southeast Asia's future may be other external powers – particularly Japan, Australia, India, and Europe – who can provide ASEAN governments with more diverse partnerships, enabling them to avoid the bipolar blocs of superpower rivalries. The book argues that external partners are helping to shape the geopolitical order by supporting ASEAN leadership and diluting the influence of great powers. Southeast Asian countries also have remarkable capacity to manage asymmetrical relations and balance external powers. The book describes the region's history of managing great power relations, drawing on historical and contemporary cases. By examining the dynamics between Southeast Asia and external powers, the book predicts that the region's future will look entirely different from its Cold War past.







Southeast Asia's Multipolar Future


Book Description

"Southeast Asia is rapidly becoming a competitive space for geopolitical rivalries. The growth in China-U.S. strategic competition is creating deep anxiety among Southeast Asia leaders, China's rising power is felt across every corner of Southeast Asia, and many leaders are worried about the long-term implications of rising Chinese influence in the region. The United States' increasingly aggressive approach towards China is welcomed by some governments, but the growth in tensions is creating deep anxiety about a possible new Cold War. How can the region prevent a repeat of the divisions and bitter rivalries of the previous Cold War? This book argues that it is possible to preserve Southeast Asia as an open, independent region, because the geopolitical dynamics are changing. Despite new superpower pressures, the region is moving towards a multi-polar, rules-based order. The key to Southeast Asia's future may be other external powers - Japan, Australia, India, Europe and Korea - who can provide ASEAN governments with more diverse partnerships, enabling them to avoid the bipolar blocs of superpower rivalries. To achieve this, however, Southeast Asian leaders must reduce their vulnerability to external pressure through more flexible multilateralism, and deepening engagement with these alternative external partners. By examining the internal debates within Southeast Asian countries, the book will predict possible strategic re-alignments over the next decade and describe how key external powers can best contribute to the preservation of ASEAN centrality, through inclusive and open regionalism in Southeast Asia"--




ASEAN 2030


Book Description

This book investigates long-term development issues for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It finds that with the proper policy mix—including domestic structural reforms and bold initiatives for regional integration—ASEAN has the potential to reach by 2030 the average quality of life enjoyed today in advanced economies and to fulfill its aspirations to become a resilient, inclusive, competitive, and harmonious (RICH) region. Key challenges moving forward are to enhance macroeconomic and financial stability, support equitable growth, promote competitiveness and innovation, and protect the environment. Overcoming these challenges to build a truly borderless economic region implies eliminating remaining barriers to the flow of goods, services, and production factors; strengthening competitiveness and the institutional framework; and updating some governing principles. But ASEAN should not merely copy the European Union. It must maintain its flexibility and pragmatism without creating a bloated regional bureaucracy. The study’s main message is that through closer integration, ASEAN can form a partnership for achieving shared prosperity in the region and around the globe.




Rivalry and Response


Book Description

" Southeast Asia has become a hotbed of strategic rivalry between China and theUnited States. China is asserting its influence in the region through economic statecraft and far-reaching efforts to secure its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, while the United States has promoted a Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy that explicitly challenges China's expanding influence—warning other countries that Beijing is practicing predatory economics and advancing governance concepts associated with rising authoritarianism in the region. In this timely volume, leading experts from Southeast Asia, Australia, and the United States assess these great power dynamics by examining the strategic landscape, domestic governance trends, and economic challenges in Southeast Asia, with the latter focusing especially on infrastructure. Among other findings, the authors express concern that U.S. policy has become too concentrated on defense and security, to the detriment of diplomacy and development, allowing China to fill the soft power vacuum and capture the narrative through its signature Belt and Road Initiative. The COVID-19 pandemic has only increased the policy challenges for Washington as China recovers faster from the outbreak, reinforcing its already advantaged economic position and advancing its strategicgoals as a result. As the Biden administration begins to formulate its strategy for the region, it would do well to consider these findings and the related policy recommendations that appear in this volume. Much is at stake for U.S. foreign policy and American interests. Southeast Asia includes two U.S. allies—Thailand and the Philippines—important security partners like Singapore, and key emerging partners such as Vietnam and Indonesia. Almost 42,000 U.S. companies export to the 10 countries that comprise the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), supporting about 600,000 jobs in the United States, but America's economic standing is increasingly at risk. "




In the Dragon's Shadow


Book Description

A timely look at the impact of China's booming emergence on the countries of Southeast Asia Today, Southeast Asia stands uniquely exposed to the waxing power of the new China. Three of its nations border China and five are directly impacted by its claims over the South China Sea. All dwell in the lengthening shadow of its influence: economic, political, military, and cultural. As China seeks to restore its former status as Asia's preeminent power, the countries of Southeast Asia face an increasingly stark choice: flourish within Beijing's orbit or languish outside of it. Meanwhile, as rival powers including the United States take concerted action to curb Chinese ambitions, the region has emerged as an arena of heated strategic competition. Drawing on more than a decade of on-the-ground experience, Sebastian Strangio explores the impacts of China's rise on Southeast Asia, the varied ways in which the countries of the region are responding, and what it might mean for the future balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.