Spatial Decision Making of Terrorist Target Selection


Book Description

Research consistently supports the notion that terrorists are rational actors. However, there has been a tendency to focus on distal factors associated with involvement in terrorism, and there is a distinct lack of empirical research on aspects of attack commission at the individual level. Little has been done to identify proximal factors associated with attacks. This thesis uses multiple paradigms from environmental criminology, including journey-to-crime analyses, various spatial and temporal statistics, risk terrain modelling and discrete choice modelling, to examine the target selection for two of the current national security threats to the UK: lone-actor terrorism and Northern Ireland related terrorism. Collectively, the findings indicate that target selection is guided by an inherent logic, and that terrorists are rational in their spatial decision making. The first piece of analysis demonstrates that lone-actor terrorists behave in a similar way to group terrorists and urban criminals. Their residence-to-attack journeys display a classic distance decay pattern. The second empirical chapter shows how attacks by violent dissident Republicans in the period studied were spatially and temporally clustered. The following chapter identifies differences between risk factors for bombings and bomb hoaxes, and suggests that dissident Republicans may select less ideological targets for bombings relative to bomb hoaxes. The final empirical chapter demonstrates that the locations of attacks by the Provisional Irish Republican Army were influenced by characteristics of the target areas as well as the properties of their likely journey to the target. In the concluding chapter, a new framework for target selection is presented and assessed using illustrative examples of recent attacks in the U.K. Important insights are provided that could guide and improve the efficacy of preventative and disruptive measures.




Targets of Terror


Book Description

Targets of Terror addresses the repercussions of assassination as a tactic of terrorism and delineates post-assassination political outcomes across target types. Assassination of heads of state, such as John F. Kennedy and Yitzhak Rabin, are rare events, but the political murders of police personnel, local government officials, politicians, and journalists occur frequently. These “softer” targets are often pursued during broader campaigns of terrorist violence, and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) records a significant number of these assassination events—16,246 to be exact—between 1977 and 2017. Utilizing survival analysis and the Polity IV Index to examine the span of time from a terrorist assassination to potential shifts in state political institutions, Laura N. Bell compares changes in authoritarian, mixed, and tumultuous regimes with democratic governments. She argues that these cases illuminate the extent to which the type of assassination target may or may not be linked to significant institutional change. By establishing differences in post-assassination political outcomes across regimes and targets, Bell provides a baseline study upon which to build future examinations of the types and severity of risks to governmental institutions during terror campaigns.







Lone-Actor Terrorists


Book Description

This book provides the first empirical analysis of lone-actor terrorist behaviour. Based upon a unique dataset of 111 lone actors that catalogues the life span of the individual’s development, the book contains important insights into what an analysis of their behaviours might imply for practical interventions aimed at disrupting or even preventing attacks. It adopts insights and methodologies from criminology and forensic psychology to provide a holistic analysis of the behavioural underpinnings of lone-actor terrorism. By focusing upon the behavioural aspects of each offender and by analysing a variety of case studies, including Anders Breivik, Ted Kaczynski, Timothy McVeigh and David Copeland, this work marks a pointed departure from previous research in the field. It seeks to answer the following key questions: Is there a lone-actor terrorist profile and how do they differ? What behaviours did the lone-actor terrorist engage in prior to his/her attack and is there a common behavioural trajectory into lone-actor terrorism? How ‘lone’ do lone-actor terrorists tend to be? What role, if any, does the internet play? What role, if any, does mental illness play? This book will be of much interest to students of terrorism/counter-terrorism studies, political violence, criminology, forensic psychology and security studies in general.




Predicting Suicide Attacks


Book Description

"The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) set out to develop ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks. While the ultimate goal is to create a list of areas at risk for the U.S. environment, the first phase of development employed a data set from Israel. Initially, NRL focused on spatial attributes, creating its own risk index, but realized that this focus on the where ignored the broader social context, the why. The lab asked RAND to test, as a proof of principle, the ability of sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors to enhance the predictive ability of NRL's methodology. Again using Israel as a sample, RAND created a database that coded for these factors, then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analyses with an eye to determining what puts a given area at greater risk. The quantitative analysis established that these factors are related to the odds of attack within specific neighborhoods and that the relationships held even when controlling for geospatial factors, so they seem to confer risk for reasons beyond their association with geospatial features of neighborhoods. The specifics of the research are limited to the preferences of Palestinian suicide bombers in Israel; however, the methods used to assess target preferences in Israel could be transferred to the United States or other countries. Any results, if proven to be robust, could be used to develop recommendations for heightened public awareness in certain areas."--Page 4 of cover.




Theories of Terrorism


Book Description

Theories of Terrorism explains and advances the major theories of terrorism that address issues of becoming a terrorist, being a terrorist, and leaving terrorism, in a clear and accessible format. Readers will gain an understanding of the most promising explanations of terrorism that have been developed to date and how they can be used to explore core substantive issues related to the topic. The content is delivered with a scholarly depth, though still accessible by students at different levels. The book offers explanations from prominent scholars for the three phases of radicalization, covering emerging topics such as women’s involvement in terrorism, fear of terrorism, the code of the terrorist, and suicide terrorism. This is the first book in the Advances in Criminological Theory series to address the issue of terrorism and emphasizes the use of theory to direct research development in the future. The style and content coverage of the book make it appropriate as a supplemental text in undergraduate courses on terrorism and political violence. The inclusion of current empirical literature and guidance for future research efforts gives the text appeal for graduate students and academics in the disciplines of criminology/criminal justice, political science, sociology, and interdisciplinary terrorism studies. The emphasis on theory and the radicalization process throughout the text will also make the book useful as a reference for general graduate-level theory courses within these areas.




Radicalization and Counter-Radicalization


Book Description

The fifteen chapters in this volume of Sociology of Crime, Law, and Deviance discuss a number of issues researchers in the fields of sociology, criminology, and criminal justice theorize, conceptualize, and measure racialization and counter-radicalization.




The Routledge Handbook on Radicalisation and Countering Radicalisation


Book Description

This handbook provides a theoretical and methodological exploration of the research on radicalisation and counter-radicalisation, one of the most influential concepts in Security Studies, International Relations, and Peace and Conflict Studies. Sitting at the heart of high-profile research and policy agendas on preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE), radicalisation as a concept has transformed the way researchers, policymakers, and societies think about how to counter terrorism and political violence. Deliberations about radicalisation and countering radicalisation have become further embedded as efforts to prevent and counter violent extremism have been ‘mainstreamed’ into other areas of public policy and practice, such as education, gender relations, health, peacebuilding, aid, and development. Theoretically and methodologically pluralistic, this handbook addresses radicalisation and countering radicalisation as they relate to a wide range of groups and milieus, articulating diverse ideological positions, drawing together insight and experience from multiple geographic and institutional settings, integrating global perspectives, and including scholarship focused on a range of policy fields. This book will be an essential reference point for anybody working on radicalisation, countering radicalisation, or terrorism and political violence more broadly. The insight that it provides will be relevant for both academics and members of relevant policy and practitioner communities.




Exporting Global Jihad


Book Description

This timely 2 volume edited collection looks at the extent and nature of global jihad, focusing on the often-exoticised hinterlands of jihad beyond the traditionally viewed Middle Eastern 'centre'. As ISIS loses its footing in Syria and Iraq and al-Qaeda regroups this comprehensive account will be a key work in the on-going battle to better understand the dynamics of the jihads global reality. Critically examining the global reach of the jihad in these peripheries has the potential to tell us much about patterns of both local mobilisation, and local rejection of a grander centrally themed and administered jihad. Has the periphery been receptive to an exported jihad from the centre or does the local rooted cosmopolitanism of the jihad in the periphery suggest a more complex glocal relationship? These questions and challenges are more pertinent than ever as the likes of ISIS and many commentators, attempt to globally rebrand the jihad and as the centre reasserts its claims to the exotic periphery. Edited by Tom Smith (Portsmouth), Kirsten E. Schulze (LSE) and Hussein Solomon (UFS) the two volumes critically examine the various claims of connections between jihadist terrorism in the 'periphery', remote Islamist insurgencies of the 'periphery' and the global jihad. Each volume draws on experts in each of the geographies in question. The global nature of the jihad is too often taken for granted; yet the extent of the glocal connections deserve focused investigation. Without such inquiry we risk a reductive understanding of the global jihad, further fostering Orientalist and Eurocentric attitudes towards local conflicts and remote violence in the periphery. This book will therefore draw attention to those who overlook and undermine the distinct and rich particularities of the often-contradictory and cosmopolitan global jihad. In many of the peripheries, particularly those with intensive large-scale insurgencies, there is extensive international military alliance. The Bush doctrine to 'fight them over there, so we don't have to fight them over here' certainly looks to be alive and well in places like Somalia, the Philippines and Niger amongst many others. Crucially we must ask - is such reasoning sound – is the threat global and if so in what way? Furthermore - is action in the peripheries under the guise of combating the global jihad overlooking the local issues and threatening to make a wider threat where it was otherwise contained? Diagnosing nations or regions as 'breeding grounds' or 'sanctuaries' of global jihad carries the spectre of having to chose sides in a battle of civilisations, which looms over a number of developing nations reliant on good western relations.




Terrorism, Risk and the City


Book Description

The development of defensive strategies encompassing the fortification and privatization of the city has attracted significant attention during recent years, and has become particularly relevant in the aftermath of September 11th. Dealing with issues of risk, security and the spatial restructuring of contemporary western cities, this book examines how the perceived risk of terrorist attack led to changes in the physical form and institutional infrastructure of the city of London during the 1990s when the city was a prime terrorist target. The book analyses how the various formal and informal strategies adopted in the City attempted to reduce both the physical and financial risk of terrorism. This was undertaken through a series of place-specific security initiatives and risk management policies which led to increased fortification, a substantial rise in terrorism insurance premiums, and, changing institutional relations at a variety of spatial scales. It also argues that the security measures deployed were developed not in terms of an anti-terrorist effort, but in relation to the unintended by-products of these approaches such as crime reduction and enhanced traffic management capabilities.