Valuation, Hedging and Speculation in Competitive Electricity Markets


Book Description

The challenges currently facing particIpants m competitive electricity markets are unique and staggering: unprecedented price volatility, a crippling lack of historical market data on which to test new modeling approaches, and a continuously changing regulatory structure. Meeting these challenges will require the knowledge and experience of both the engineering and finance communities. Yet the two communities continue to largely ignore each other. The finance community believes that engineering models are too detailed and complex to be practically applicable in the fast changing market environment. Engineers counter that the finance models are merely statistical regressions, lacking the necessary structure to capture the true dynamic properties of complex power systems. While both views have merit, neither group has by themselves been able to produce effective tools for meeting industry challenges. The goal of this book is to convey the fundamental differences between electricity and other traded commodities, and the impact these differences have on valuation, hedging and operational decisions made by market participants. The optimization problems associated with these decisions are formulated in the context of the market realities of today's power industry, including a lack of liquidity on forward and options markets, limited availability of historical data, and constantly changing regulatory structures.




Speculation and Energy Prices


Book Description

While most observers recognize that the fundamentals of supply and demand have contributed to record energy prices in 2008, many also believe that the price of oil and other commodities includes a "speculative premium." In other words, speculators who seek to profit by forecasting price trends are blamed for driving prices higher than is justified by fundamentals. In theory, this should not happen. Speculation is not a new phenomenon in futures markets -- the futures exchanges are essentially associations of professional speculators. There are two benefits that arise from speculation and distinguish it from mere gambling : first, speculators create a market where hedgers -- producers or commercial users of commodities -- can offset price risk. Hedgers can use the markets to lock in today's price for transactions that will occur in the future, shielding their businesses from unfavorable price changes. Second, a competitive market where hedgers and speculators pool their information and trade on their expectations of future prices is the best available mechanism to determine prices that will clear markets and ensure efficient allocation of resources.




Energy Speculation


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Energy Speculation


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Energy Prices


Book Description

A lucid answer to the question of what causes energy prices to often widely fluctuate is hard to find. Is it supply, demand, speculation, manipulation, fear, price gauging by energy distributors or refiners or some hideous combination of all the above? This book provides basic information to try to solve this riddle.




Speculative Investment in Energy Markets


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Energy Speculation


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Speculation and Energy Prices


Book Description

A Government Accountability Office report in October 2007 noted the growth of the OTC market and raised questions about whether the federal regulator had the information it needed to ensure that markets were free of fraud and manipulation.8 In the same month, the CFTC issued a report recommending legislative action to increase the transparency of energy markets.9 In May 2008, with the Farm Bill (H [...] The London Loophole Unlike the Enron loophole, which addresses the distinction between the regulated exchange markets and the unregulated OTC market, the "London loophole" refers to differences in the oversight of regulated markets in different countries. [...] However, in the case of ICE Futures Europe, the CFTC has waived that requirement, by means of a series of no-action letters, on the grounds that the U. K. market is already regulated at home, and that requiring it to register with the CFTC would be duplicative and add little in terms of market or customer protections.12 Initially, the U. K. market offered electronic access to U. S. traders to its [...] Because the dealer is using the futures market to hedge the risk of the swap, the exchanges and the CFTC exempt it from position limits, even though it does not deal in the physical commodity. [...] A number of bills call for studies of various aspects of the market, including the effects of raising margin, the adequacy of international regulation, the effects of speculation, and the impact of index trading on prices.