Speculation by Commodity Index Funds


Book Description

Commodity futures prices exploded in 2007-2008 and concerns about a new type of speculative participant in commodity futures markets began to emerge. The main argument was that unprecedented buying pressure from new "commodity index" investors created massive bubbles that resulted in prices substantially exceeding fundamental value. At the time, it was not uncommon to link concerns about speculation and high prices to world hunger, food crises, and civil unrest. Naturally, this outcry resulted in numerous regulatory proposals to restrict speculation in commodity futures markets. This book presents important research on the impact of index investment on commodity futures prices that the authors conducted over the last fifteen years. The eleven articles presented in the book follow the timeline of our involvement in the world-wide debate about index funds as it evolved after 2007. We also include an introductory chapter, new author forewords for each article chapter, and a lessons learned chapter to round out the book. Policy-makers, researchers, and market participants will find the book not only functions as useful documentation of the debate; but, also as a natural starting point when high commodity prices inevitably create the next speculation backlash.




Commodity Index Investing


Book Description

A number of seemingly unrelated commodities experienced simultaneous price spikes recently. Congress investigated the increase in prices and concluded that the price increases were not attributable to fundamentals but rather to commodity index investing. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether commodity index investing is a disruptive force in commodity futures market. We conclude that: (a) due to its passive, long-only nature, commodity index investing is not speculation and (b) commodity index flows, whether due to rolling over existing futures positions or establishing new ones, have little impact on futures prices.










Does Speculation Drive Commodity Prices? Evidence from the Market for Corn


Book Description

Seminar paper from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This seminar paper reviews the literature on futures markets as well as the recent food crisis and presents an empirical investigation of the influence of (index) speculation on the corn price. My findings are in line with most of the other empirical conclusions that, rather than speculation, factors from the real and monetary economy played a role in the spike of commodity prices. For centuries, corn has been one of the most produced crops in the world, used to feed people, livestock and machines. During the last quarter of the twentieth-century, world food prices declined by more than 50 percent, thereby improving the nourishment of people all over the world. However, this extensive decline also raised calls for protectionist policies, aimed at defending the welfare of commodity producers. Starting in the early 2000s, all classes of commodities have experienced hefty price increases. The price for corn increased by more than 250 percent in roughly three years (2005-2008). The resulting food crisis devastated low-income communities around the globe, with the already large part of their income they spent on food becoming even more substantial, causing hunger and malnutrition. While a variety of explanations for this crisis have been offered, some were quick to blame excessive (index) speculation.




Fundamentals, Speculation, and the Pricing of Crude Oil Futures


Book Description

Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.




Why You Should Speculate in Futures


Book Description

This is the eBook version of the printed book. This Element is an excerpt from A Trader's First Book on Commodities: An Introduction to the World's Fastest Growing Market (9780137015450) by Carley Garner. Available in print and digital formats. Why futures are so valuable to speculators–and why speculation could help you earn life-changing profits. I encourage traders to come to futures and options for the right reasons and know what to expect when they get there. Along with significant risk of loss, there is potential for significant profits. That is why speculators flock to the markets and what keeps them coming back. For those with the willingness and the capital to speculate, the futures and options on futures markets offer some glaring advantages over other vehicles.







Back to the Futures: Crashing Dirt Bikes, Chasing Cows, and Unraveling the Mystery of Commodity Futures Markets


Book Description

Whoever said learning about futures markets had to be boring? Futures markets are a mystery. Fortunes are made and lost in these markets, yet most people know little about how they work. In Back to the Futures, agricultural economist Scott Irwin explains why it’s essential to understand futures markets, whether you’re talking about grain, cattle, or the largest market of them all—crude oil. These massive markets lie at the heart of our economy, affecting us all. Irwin’s engaging storytelling style brings the madcap world of futures trading to life, drawing you in by sharing his wild, life-threatening adventures with motorcycles, snowmobiles, race cars, farm equipment, and renegade cows while growing up on an Iowa farm. Back to the Futures will keep you riveted as he explains how to reduce risk in today’s intense arena of commodity trading. This unique book brings in other experts as well, such as Terry Duffy, CEO of the CME Group (the largest commodity trading exchange in the world), and Leo Melamed, the man who revolutionized the market with electronic trading. Together, these experts combine their knowledge and experiences to provide clarity on the following topics: Why future markets are crucial for farmers and consumers. The critical role future markets play in our financial system. The role speculators play in making these markets work. And much more. Commodity futures trading has become a vital part of doing business in America. So, get ready to learn something new–and don’t be surprised if you find yourself highly entertained along the journey!




Speculative Investment in Energy Markets


Book Description