Statistical Methods for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis


Book Description

Hazard assessment and risk analysis of natural disasters requires detailed analysis of the available information. The raw material of such investigations are the past data which are often incomplete and insufficient. Due to the nature of the problem statistical methods have been increasingly used in hazard assessment and risk analysis of disasters such as earthquakes, high speed winds, and floods. Although most of the classical theories have been utilized for this purpose, there are still many important areas which have not received enough attention. This book is devoted to description of some statistical theories and methods and discussion of their relevance to hazard assessment of natural disasters in general and earthquakes in particular. Except for introductory material, different chapters of the book are made independent from each other whenever possible. This is done in the expense of covering the same material in several places. In doing so our goal was to make it easier for readers who seek to learn and apply a particular method. Also to facilitize this, theories utilized are described in detail in the corresponding chapters.




Handbook of Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems


Book Description

Earthquakes represent a major risk to buildings, bridges and other civil infrastructure systems, causing catastrophic loss to modern society. Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems reviews the state of the art in the seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems. Part one reviews research in the quantification of uncertainties in ground motion and seismic hazard assessment. Part twi discusses methodologies in seismic risk analysis and management, whilst parts three and four cover the application of seismic risk assessment to buildings, bridges, pipelines and other civil infrastructure systems. Part five also discusses methods for quantifying dependency between different infrastructure systems. The final part of the book considers ways of assessing financial and other losses from earthquake damage as well as setting insurance rates. Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems is an invaluable guide for professionals requiring understanding of the impact of earthquakes on buildings and lifelines, and the seismic risk assessment and management of buildings, bridges and transportation. It also provides a comprehensive overview of seismic risk analysis for researchers and engineers within these fields. This important handbook reviews the wealth of recent research in the area of seismic hazard analysis in modern earthquake design code provisions and practices Examines research into the analysis of ground motion and seismic hazard assessment, seismic risk hazard methodologies Addresses the assessment of seismic risks to buildings, bridges, water supply systems and other aspects of civil infrastructure




Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis


Book Description

Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.




Statistical Methods and Modeling of Seismogenesis


Book Description

The study of earthquakes is a multidisciplinary field, an amalgam of geodynamics, mathematics, engineering and more. The overriding commonality between them all is the presence of natural randomness. Stochastic studies (probability, stochastic processes and statistics) can be of different types, for example, the black box approach (one state), the white box approach (multi-state), the simulation of different aspects, and so on. This book has the advantage of bringing together a group of international authors, known for their earthquake-specific approaches, to cover a wide array of these myriad aspects. A variety of topics are presented, including statistical nonparametric and parametric methods, a multi-state system approach, earthquake simulators, post-seismic activity models, time series Markov models with regression, scaling properties and multifractal approaches, selfcorrecting models, the linked stress release model, Markovian arrival models, Poisson-based detection techniques, change point detection techniques on seismicity models, and, finally, semi-Markov models for earthquake forecasting.




Earthquake Data in Engineering Seismology


Book Description

This book addresses current activities in strong-motion networks around the globe, covering issues related to designing, maintaining and disseminating information from these arrays. The book is divided into three principal sections. The first section includes recent developments in regional and global ground-motion predictive models. It presents discussions on the similarities and differences of ground motion estimations from these models and their application to design spectra as well as other novel procedures for predicting engineering parameters in seismic regions with sparse data. The second section introduces topics about the particular methodologies being implemented in the recently established global and regional strong-motion databanks in Europe to maintain and disseminate the archived accelerometric data. The final section describes major strong-motion arrays around the world and their historical developments. The last three chapters of this section introduce projects carried out within the context of arrays deployed for seismic risk studies in metropolitan areas. Audience: This timely book will be of particular interest for researchers who use accelerometric data extensively to conduct studies in earthquake engineering and engineering seismology.







Statistical Methods for QTL Mapping


Book Description

While numerous advanced statistical approaches have recently been developed for quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping, the methods are scattered throughout the literature. Statistical Methods for QTL Mapping brings together many recent statistical techniques that address the data complexity of QTL mapping. After introducing basic genetics topics and statistical principles, the author discusses the principles of quantitative genetics, general statistical issues of QTL mapping, commonly used one-dimensional QTL mapping approaches, and multiple interval mapping methods. He then explains how to use a feature selection approach to tackle a QTL mapping problem with dense markers. The book also provides comprehensive coverage of Bayesian models and MCMC algorithms and describes methods for multi-trait QTL mapping and eQTL mapping, including meta-trait methods and multivariate sequential procedures. This book emphasizes the modern statistical methodology for QTL mapping as well as the statistical issues that arise during this process. It gives the necessary biological background for statisticians without training in genetics and, likewise, covers statistical thinking and principles for geneticists. Written primarily for geneticists and statisticians specializing in QTL mapping, the book can also be used as a supplement in graduate courses or for self-study by PhD students working on QTL mapping projects.




Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis


Book Description

Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.




Earthquake Statistical Analysis through Multi-state Modeling


Book Description

Earthquake occurrence modeling is a rapidly developing research area. This book deals with its critical issues, ranging from theoretical advances to practical applications. The introductory chapter outlines state-of-the-art earthquake modeling approaches based on stochastic models. Chapter 2 presents seismogenesis in association with the evolving stress field. Chapters 3 to 5 present earthquake occurrence modeling by means of hidden (semi-)Markov models and discuss associated characteristic measures and relative estimation aspects. Further comparisons, the most important results and our concluding remarks are provided in Chapters 6 and 7.