Statistical Modelling and Risk Analysis


Book Description

This volume covers the latest results on novel methods in Risk Analysis and assessment, with applications in Biostatistics (which is providing food for thought since the first ICRAs, covering traditional areas of RA, until now), Engineering Reliability, the Environmental Sciences and Economics. The contributions, based on lectures given at the 9th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 9), at Perugia, Italy, May 2022, detail a wide variety of daily risks, building on ideas presented at previous ICRA conferences. Working within a strong theoretical framework, supporting applications, the material describes a modern extension of the traditional research of the 1980s. This book is intended for graduate students in Mathematics, Statistics, Biology, Toxicology, Medicine, Management, and Economics, as well as quantitative researchers in Risk Analysis.




Risk Analysis Foundations, Models, and Methods


Book Description

Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models, and Methods fully addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" and "How can its potentialities be developed to be most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers?" Risk analysis provides methods and principles for answering these questions. It is divided into methods for assessing, communicating, and managing health risks. Risk assessment quantitatively estimates the health risks to individuals and to groups from hazardous exposures and from the decisions or activities that create them. It applies specialized models and methods to quantify likely exposures and their resulting health risks. Its goal is to produce information to improve decisions. It does this by relating alternative decisions to their probable consequences and by identifying those decisions that make preferred outcomes more likely. Health risk assessment draws on explicit engineering, biomathematical, and statistical consequence models to describe or simulate the causal relations between actions and their probable effects on health. Risk communication characterizes and presents information about health risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and stakeholders. Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.




Statistical modeling : a fresh approach


Book Description

"Statistical Modeling: A Fresh Approach introduces and illuminates the statistical reasoning used in modern research throughout the natural and social sciences, medicine, government, and commerce. It emphasizes the use of models to untangle and quantify variation in observed data. By a deft and concise use of computing coupled with an innovative geometrical presentation of the relationship among variables. A Fresh Approach reveals the logic of statistical inference and empowers the reader to use and understand techniques such as analysis of covariance that appear widely in published research but are hardly ever found in introductory texts."-- book cover




Statistical Models and Methods for Financial Markets


Book Description

The idea of writing this bookarosein 2000when the ?rst author wasassigned to teach the required course STATS 240 (Statistical Methods in Finance) in the new M. S. program in ?nancial mathematics at Stanford, which is an interdisciplinary program that aims to provide a master’s-level education in applied mathematics, statistics, computing, ?nance, and economics. Students in the programhad di?erent backgroundsin statistics. Some had only taken a basic course in statistical inference, while others had taken a broad spectrum of M. S. - and Ph. D. -level statistics courses. On the other hand, all of them had already taken required core courses in investment theory and derivative pricing, and STATS 240 was supposed to link the theory and pricing formulas to real-world data and pricing or investment strategies. Besides students in theprogram,thecoursealso attractedmanystudentsfromother departments in the university, further increasing the heterogeneity of students, as many of them had a strong background in mathematical and statistical modeling from the mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences but no previous experience in ?nance. To address the diversity in background but common strong interest in the subject and in a potential career as a “quant” in the ?nancialindustry,thecoursematerialwascarefullychosennotonlytopresent basic statistical methods of importance to quantitative ?nance but also to summarize domain knowledge in ?nance and show how it can be combined with statistical modeling in ?nancial analysis and decision making. The course material evolved over the years, especially after the second author helped as the head TA during the years 2004 and 2005.




Statistical Models in Toxicology


Book Description

Statistical Models in Toxicology presents an up-to-date and comprehensive account of mathematical statistics problems that occur in toxicology. This is as an exciting time in toxicology because of the attention given by statisticians to the problem of estimating the human health risk for environmental and occupational exposures. The development of modern statistical techniques with solid mathematical foundations in the 20th century and the advent of modern computers in the latter part of the century gave way to development of many statistical models and methods to describe toxicological processes and attempts to solve the associated problems. Not only have the models enjoyed a high level of elegance and sophistication mathematically, they are widely used by industry and government regulatory agencies. Features: Focuses on describing the statistical models in environmental toxicology that facilitate the assessment of risk mainly in humans. The properties and shortfalls of each model are discussed and its impact in the process of risk assessment is examined. Discusses models that assess the risk of mixtures of chemicals. Presents statistical models that are developed for risk estimation in different aspects of environmental toxicology including cancer and carcinogenic substances. Includes models for developmental and reproductive toxicity risk assessment, risk assessment in continuous outcomes and developmental neurotoxicity. Contains numerous examples and exercises. Statistical Models in Toxicology introduces a wide variety of statistical models that are currently utilized for dose-response modeling and risk analysis. These models are often developed based on design and regulatory guidelines of toxicological experiments. The book is suitable for practitioners or as use as a textbook for advanced undergraduate or graduate students of mathematics and statistics.




Monte-Carlo Simulation-Based Statistical Modeling


Book Description

This book brings together expert researchers engaged in Monte-Carlo simulation-based statistical modeling, offering them a forum to present and discuss recent issues in methodological development as well as public health applications. It is divided into three parts, with the first providing an overview of Monte-Carlo techniques, the second focusing on missing data Monte-Carlo methods, and the third addressing Bayesian and general statistical modeling using Monte-Carlo simulations. The data and computer programs used here will also be made publicly available, allowing readers to replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter, and to readily apply them in their own research. Featuring highly topical content, the book has the potential to impact model development and data analyses across a wide spectrum of fields, and to spark further research in this direction.




Applied Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis


Book Description

This complete resource on the theory and applications of reliability engineering, probabilistic models and risk analysis consolidates all the latest research, presenting the most up-to-date developments in this field. With comprehensive coverage of the theoretical and practical issues of both classic and modern topics, it also provides a unique commemoration to the centennial of the birth of Boris Gnedenko, one of the most prominent reliability scientists of the twentieth century. Key features include: expert treatment of probabilistic models and statistical inference from leading scientists, researchers and practitioners in their respective reliability fields detailed coverage of multi-state system reliability, maintenance models, statistical inference in reliability, systemability, physics of failures and reliability demonstration many examples and engineering case studies to illustrate the theoretical results and their practical applications in industry Applied Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis is one of the first works to treat the important areas of degradation analysis, multi-state system reliability, networks and large-scale systems in one comprehensive volume. It is an essential reference for engineers and scientists involved in reliability analysis, applied probability and statistics, reliability engineering and maintenance, logistics, and quality control. It is also a useful resource for graduate students specialising in reliability analysis and applied probability and statistics. Dedicated to the Centennial of the birth of Boris Gnedenko, renowned Russian mathematician and reliability theorist




Data Analysis with Competing Risks and Intermediate States


Book Description

Data Analysis with Competing Risks and Intermediate States explains when and how to use models and techniques for the analysis of competing risks and intermediate states. It covers the most recent insights on estimation techniques and discusses in detail how to interpret the obtained results.After introducing example studies from the biomedical and




Statistical Applications for Environmental Analysis and Risk Assessment


Book Description

Statistical Applications for Environmental Analysis and Risk Assessment guides readers through real-world situations and the best statistical methods used to determine the nature and extent of the problem, evaluate the potential human health and ecological risks, and design and implement remedial systems as necessary. Featuring numerous worked examples using actual data and “ready-made” software scripts, Statistical Applications for Environmental Analysis and Risk Assessment also includes: • Descriptions of basic statistical concepts and principles in an informal style that does not presume prior familiarity with the subject • Detailed illustrations of statistical applications in the environmental and related water resources fields using real-world data in the contexts that would typically be encountered by practitioners • Software scripts using the high-powered statistical software system, R, and supplemented by USEPA’s ProUCL and USDOE’s VSP software packages, which are all freely available • Coverage of frequent data sample issues such as non-detects, outliers, skewness, sustained and cyclical trend that habitually plague environmental data samples • Clear demonstrations of the crucial, but often overlooked, role of statistics in environmental sampling design and subsequent exposure risk assessment.




Statistics and Data Analysis for Financial Engineering


Book Description

The new edition of this influential textbook, geared towards graduate or advanced undergraduate students, teaches the statistics necessary for financial engineering. In doing so, it illustrates concepts using financial markets and economic data, R Labs with real-data exercises, and graphical and analytic methods for modeling and diagnosing modeling errors. These methods are critical because financial engineers now have access to enormous quantities of data. To make use of this data, the powerful methods in this book for working with quantitative information, particularly about volatility and risks, are essential. Strengths of this fully-revised edition include major additions to the R code and the advanced topics covered. Individual chapters cover, among other topics, multivariate distributions, copulas, Bayesian computations, risk management, and cointegration. Suggested prerequisites are basic knowledge of statistics and probability, matrices and linear algebra, and calculus. There is an appendix on probability, statistics and linear algebra. Practicing financial engineers will also find this book of interest.