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Structural Change and Time Dependence in Models of Stock Returns

Author : Dongcheol Kim

Publisher :

Page : pages

File Size : 36,16 MB

Release : 2018

Category :

ISBN :

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Book Description

In this paper, we provide evidence that the time-series properties of stock returns includeboth structural change and time dependence in the conditional variance. The absence of astructural change component tends to overstate the persistence parameter in a time-dependentmodel specification. The reason is that time-dependent model specifications do notdistinguish between positive residuals that increase volatility from those that represent aresolution of uncertainty. A sequential mixture of normal distributions model of structuralchange is employed to estimate discrete change points in the time-series of volatility ineither direction. Although the model of structural change appears to be the more descriptiveprocess in a mutually exclusive comparison, a joint model of time dependence andstructural change is most likely.





Hidden Markov Models

Author : Ramaprasad Bhar

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 167 pages

File Size : 18,98 MB

Release : 2006-04-18

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1402079400

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Book Description

Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.



Stochastic Theory and Control

Author : Bozenna Pasik-Duncan

Publisher : Springer

Page : 563 pages

File Size : 33,23 MB

Release : 2003-07-01

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 3540480226

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Book Description

This volume contains almost all of the papers that were presented at the Workshop on Stochastic Theory and Control that was held at the Univ- sity of Kansas, 18–20 October 2001. This three-day event gathered a group of leading scholars in the ?eld of stochastic theory and control to discuss leading-edge topics of stochastic control, which include risk sensitive control, adaptive control, mathematics of ?nance, estimation, identi?cation, optimal control, nonlinear ?ltering, stochastic di?erential equations, stochastic p- tial di?erential equations, and stochastic theory and its applications. The workshop provided an opportunity for many stochastic control researchers to network and discuss cutting-edge technologies and applications, teaching and future directions of stochastic control. Furthermore, the workshop focused on promoting control theory, in particular stochastic control, and it promoted collaborative initiatives in stochastic theory and control and stochastic c- trol education. The lecture on “Adaptation of Real-Time Seizure Detection Algorithm” was videotaped by the PBS. Participants of the workshop have been involved in contributing to the documentary being ?lmed by PBS which highlights the extraordinary work on “Math, Medicine and the Mind: Discovering Tre- ments for Epilepsy” that examines the e?orts of the multidisciplinary team on which several of the participants of the workshop have been working for many years to solve one of the world’s most dramatic neurological conditions. Invited high school teachers of Math and Science were among the part- ipants of this professional meeting.



Modern Portfolio Theory, + Website

Author : Jack Clark Francis

Publisher : John Wiley & Sons

Page : 576 pages

File Size : 27,13 MB

Release : 2013-01-22

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 111837052X

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Book Description

A through guide covering Modern Portfolio Theory as well as the recent developments surrounding it Modern portfolio theory (MPT), which originated with Harry Markowitz's seminal paper "Portfolio Selection" in 1952, has stood the test of time and continues to be the intellectual foundation for real-world portfolio management. This book presents a comprehensive picture of MPT in a manner that can be effectively used by financial practitioners and understood by students. Modern Portfolio Theory provides a summary of the important findings from all of the financial research done since MPT was created and presents all the MPT formulas and models using one consistent set of mathematical symbols. Opening with an informative introduction to the concepts of probability and utility theory, it quickly moves on to discuss Markowitz's seminal work on the topic with a thorough explanation of the underlying mathematics. Analyzes portfolios of all sizes and types, shows how the advanced findings and formulas are derived, and offers a concise and comprehensive review of MPT literature Addresses logical extensions to Markowitz's work, including the Capital Asset Pricing Model, Arbitrage Pricing Theory, portfolio ranking models, and performance attribution Considers stock market developments like decimalization, high frequency trading, and algorithmic trading, and reveals how they align with MPT Companion Website contains Excel spreadsheets that allow you to compute and graph Markowitz efficient frontiers with riskless and risky assets If you want to gain a complete understanding of modern portfolio theory this is the book you need to read.



Dependence in Probability and Statistics

Author : Patrice Bertail

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 491 pages

File Size : 47,46 MB

Release : 2006-09-24

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 038736062X

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Book Description

This book gives an account of recent developments in the field of probability and statistics for dependent data. It covers a wide range of topics from Markov chain theory and weak dependence with an emphasis on some recent developments on dynamical systems, to strong dependence in times series and random fields. There is a section on statistical estimation problems and specific applications. The book is written as a succession of papers by field specialists, alternating general surveys, mostly at a level accessible to graduate students in probability and statistics, and more general research papers mainly suitable to researchers in the field.



Econometrics of Structural Change

Author : Walter Krämer

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 134 pages

File Size : 10,95 MB

Release : 2012-12-06

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 3642484123

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Book Description

Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t



Regime Changes in Stock Returns

Author : Ramon P. DeGennaro

Publisher :

Page : 14 pages

File Size : 27,58 MB

Release : 2003

Category :

ISBN :

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Book Description

This paper models stock returns as a function of three components: a constant expected return, the impact of the mechanism for executing trades, and a rational expectations error. We examine changes in these parameters using Goldfeld and Quandt's (1976) deterministic switching based on time. This method not only allows us to learn if and when the regression structure changes, but also provides a measure of the speed of transition from one regime to the other. We find that, regardless of the sample period, all regime shifts are due to changes in the estimated variance of the error. This is true even if the ex post return on the stock portfolio or the estimated rate of compensation for financing costs changes substantially. In addition, these structural shifts occur during substantial changes in the business environment, driven by important political decisions. We interpret these findings as suggesting that government policy strongly affects the volatility of the stock market.





Financial Surveillance

Author : Marianne Frisen

Publisher : John Wiley & Sons

Page : 272 pages

File Size : 46,23 MB

Release : 2008-02-28

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 9780470987162

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Book Description

This is the first book-length treatment of statistical surveillance methods used in financial analysis. It contains carefully selected chapters written by specialists from both fields and strikes a balance between the financial and statistical worlds, enhancing future collaborations between the two areas, and enabling more successful prediction of financial market trends. The book discusses, in detail, schemes for different control charts and different linear and nonlinear time series models and applies methods to real data from worldwide markets, as well as including simulation studies.