Survival of the Fittest for Investors: Using Darwin’s Laws of Evolution to Build a Winning Portfolio


Book Description

The science behind creating portfolios that adapt to market changes “After ten years of poor stock market returns and yet great bond and gold returns, there is a real thirst for an all-weather portfolio in a high-risk period. Dick Stoken builds that diversified portfolio and also introduces some timing methods to improve returns and lower risks. This is a very timely and useful book.” —Ned Davis, Senior Investment Strategist, Ned Davis Research, Inc. “Dick Stoken’s Survival of the Fittest for Investors is a masterful and unique dissection of what makes the market tick. It represents an indispensable and brand-new approach for the serious investor. A must on every investor’s reading list.” —Leo Melamed, Chairman Emeritus, CME Group “I selected Stoken’s Strategic Investment Timing as the Best Investment Book of the Year in the 1985 Stock Trader’s Almanac; Survival of the Fittest for Investors will be a leading contender for Best Investment Book of the Year in the upcoming 2013 edition.” —Yale Hirsch, founder, Stock Trader’s Almanac About the Book: Just as the animal kingdom is composed of many species, today’s financial systems are composed of a multitude of independent participants, all over the globe, all influencing the whole. Survival of the Fittest for Investors breaks down the science behind the behavior of these market participants to present a definitive system for building profitable portfolios based on the concept of natural selection. This advanced guide to the cutting-edge science of complex adaptive systems in financial markets tells you where to find and how to track the evolutionary instability underlying these markets. It shows how, with heightened insight and a powerful algorithm, you can survive and thrive in volatile markets by following the simple principles of evolution. Award-winning and critically acclaimed author Dick Stoken punches holes in the outdated, Newtonian cause-and-effect paradigm and helps you see financial markets from a Darwinian perspective, where they function as complex systems that have the ability to adapt. By using his state-of-the-art algorithm, Stoken demonstrates how you can use agent-based modeling to assess the actual way markets behave in order to maximize the upside of your asset allocation. Stoken shows that variation is the key to profitability by using three real-world portfolios, each balancing four major asset classes going back thirty-nine years. Each portfolio clearly demonstrates how to reap consistently impressive profits with lower-than-market risk—regardless of your investment style. Whether you take conservative, traditional, or leveraged positions, this book helps you create portfolios of equities, debt, gold, and real estate that have proven to beat the S&P 500 by up to 22.5 percent! After opening your eyes to the science of complex adaptive systems and the vitality of punctuated equilibrium, Survival of the Fittest for Investors helps you implement the know-how into nuts-and-bolts results by equipping you with such practical tools as: A 1-year/6-month algorithm for accurately simulating evolutionary fluctuations in markets A cutting-edge allocation strategy that takes advantage of our natural “herding” instinct Tips for recognizing and enduring “bubbles” Without Survival of the Fittest for Investors, the evolution of investing may leave your wealth behind.




Stock Trader's Almanac 2013


Book Description

A time-tested guide to stock trading market cycles Published every year since 1968, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a practical investment tool with a wealth of information organized in calendar format. Everyone from well-known money managers to savvy traders and investors relies upon this annual resource for its in-depth analyses and insights. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2013 contains essential historical price information on the stock market, provides monthly and daily reminders, and highlights seasonal trading opportunities and dangers. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2013 is packed with timely insights and targeted analysis to help you navigate turbulent markets and beat the odds in the year ahead. This trusted guide combines over a century's worth of data, statistics, and trends along with vital analysis you won’t get anywhere else. Alerts you to little-known market patterns and tendencies to help forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence An indispensable annual resource, trusted for over 40 years by traders and investors The data in the Almanac is some of the best in the business For its wealth of information and the authority of its sources, the Stock Trader's Almanac stands alone as the guide to intelligent investing.




Computational Science – ICCS 2008


Book Description

The three-volume set LNCS 5101-5103 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2008, held in Krakow, Poland in June 2008. The 167 revised papers of the main conference track presented together with the abstracts of 7 keynote talks and the 100 revised papers from 14 workshops were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the three volumes. The main conference track was divided into approximately 20 parallel sessions addressing topics such as e-science applications and systems, scheduling and load balancing, software services and tools, new hardware and its applications, computer networks, simulation of complex systems, image processing and visualization, optimization techniques, numerical linear algebra, and numerical algorithms. The second volume contains workshop papers related to various computational research areas, e.g.: computer graphics and geometric modeling, simulation of multiphysics multiscale systems, computational chemistry and its applications, computational finance and business intelligence, physical, biological and social networks, geocomputation, and teaching computational science. The third volume is mostly related to computer science topics such as bioinformatics' challenges to computer science, tools for program development and analysis in computational science, software engineering for large-scale computing, collaborative and cooperative environments, applications of workflows in computational science, as well as intelligent agents and evolvable systems.




Human Evolution Beyond Biology and Culture


Book Description

A complete account of evolutionary thought in the social, environmental and policy sciences, creating bridges with biology.




Digital Darwinism


Book Description

Digital Darwinism takes a closer look at disruptive thinking to inspire those who want to be the best at digital transformation. Change across business is accelerating, but the lifespan of companies is decreasing as leaders face a growing abundance of decisions to make, data to process and technology that threatens even the most established business models. These forces could destroy your company or, with the right strategy in place, help you transform it into a market leader. Digital Darwinism lends a guiding hand through the turbulence, offering practical strategies while sounding a call to action that lights a fire underneath complacency to inspire creative change. Digital Darwinism shines a light on the future by exploring technology, society and lessons from the past so you can understand how to adapt, what to embrace and what to ignore. Tom Goodwin proves that assumptions the business world has previously made about "digital" are wrong: incremental change isn't good enough, adding technology at the edges won't work and digital isn't a thing - it's everything. If you want your organization to succeed in the post-digital age, you need to be enlightened by Digital Darwinism.




Adaptive Markets


Book Description

A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.




Dealing with Darwin


Book Description

MOORE/DEALING WITH DARWIN




Andrew Carnegie Speaks to the 1%


Book Description

Before the 99% occupied Wall Street... Before the concept of social justice had impinged on the social conscience... Before the social safety net had even been conceived... By the turn of the 20th Century, the era of the robber barons, Andrew Carnegie (1835-1919) had already accumulated a staggeringly large fortune; he was one of the wealthiest people on the globe. He guaranteed his position as one of the wealthiest men ever when he sold his steel business to create the United States Steel Corporation. Following that sale, he spent his last 18 years, he gave away nearly 90% of his fortune to charities, foundations, and universities. His charitable efforts actually started far earlier. At the age of 33, he wrote a memo to himself, noting ..".The amassing of wealth is one of the worse species of idolatry. No idol more debasing than the worship of money." In 1881, he gave a library to his hometown of Dunfermline, Scotland. In 1889, he spelled out his belief that the rich should use their wealth to help enrich society, in an article called "The Gospel of Wealth" this book. Carnegie writes that the best way of dealing with wealth inequality is for the wealthy to redistribute their surplus means in a responsible and thoughtful manner, arguing that surplus wealth produces the greatest net benefit to society when it is administered carefully by the wealthy. He also argues against extravagance, irresponsible spending, or self-indulgence, instead promoting the administration of capital during one's lifetime toward the cause of reducing the stratification between the rich and poor. Though written more than a century ago, Carnegie's words still ring true today, urging a better, more equitable world through greater social consciousness.




An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change


Book Description

This book contains the most sustained and serious attack on mainstream, neoclassical economics in more than forty years. Nelson and Winter focus their critique on the basic question of how firms and industries change overtime. They marshal significant objections to the fundamental neoclassical assumptions of profit maximization and market equilibrium, which they find ineffective in the analysis of technological innovation and the dynamics of competition among firms. To replace these assumptions, they borrow from biology the concept of natural selection to construct a precise and detailed evolutionary theory of business behavior. They grant that films are motivated by profit and engage in search for ways of improving profits, but they do not consider them to be profit maximizing. Likewise, they emphasize the tendency for the more profitable firms to drive the less profitable ones out of business, but they do not focus their analysis on hypothetical states of industry equilibrium. The results of their new paradigm and analytical framework are impressive. Not only have they been able to develop more coherent and powerful models of competitive firm dynamics under conditions of growth and technological change, but their approach is compatible with findings in psychology and other social sciences. Finally, their work has important implications for welfare economics and for government policy toward industry.




A History of the Theory of Investments


Book Description

"This exceptional book provides valuable insights into the evolution of financial economics from the perspective of a major player." -- Robert Litzenberger, Hopkinson Professor Emeritus of Investment Banking, Univ. of Pennsylvania; and retired partner, Goldman Sachs A History of the Theory of Investments is about ideas -- where they come from, how they evolve, and why they are instrumental in preparing the future for new ideas. Author Mark Rubinstein writes history by rewriting history. In unearthing long-forgotten books and journals, he corrects past oversights to assign credit where credit is due and assembles a remarkable history that is unquestionable in its accuracy and unprecedented in its power. Exploring key turning points in the development of investment theory, through the critical prism of award-winning investment theory and asset pricing expert Mark Rubinstein, this groundbreaking resource follows the chronological development of investment theory over centuries, exploring the inner workings of great theoretical breakthroughs while pointing out contributions made by often unsung contributors to some of investment's most influential ideas and models.