Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth


Book Description

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.




Endogenous Growth in Historical Perspective


Book Description

In recent decades, new endogenous growth theory has become popular but the ideas are not new. They go back at least as far as Adam Smith, and the subsequent contributions made notably by Alfred Marshall and Allyn Young. This book critically discusses and provides an historical perspective to the entire spectrum of endogenous growth theories starting with Adam Smith and ending with Paul Romer. It fills an important gap in the literature. While contributions of individual authors are readily available, there is no comprehensive study on the subject covering such a vast ground, critically discussing these authors in a comprehensive framework. It collates all the arguments and economic viewpoints in one collection, providing both the seasoned economist and a graduate economist with a critical comparison of origin, mechanisms, conclusions, and policy implications of these models.




Tax Policy Implications in Endogenous Growth Models


Book Description

This paper surveys the tax policy implications in various endogenous growth models. The focus is on the long-run growth effects of income, consumption, and investment taxation in models whose engine of growth is the accumulation of human capital, technological innovation, and/or public infrastructure. The results depend on model specifications. This paper also reviews quantitative results from cross-country regressions and simulations, and indicates some statistical and methodological problems to which they are subject. Tax policy implications in endogenous growth models both with tax policy endogenously determined by a political process and with international capital mobility are also discussed.




Growth Effects of Income and Consumption Taxes


Book Description

The effects of income and consumption taxation are examined in the context of models in which the growth process is driven by the accumulation of human and physical capital. The different channels through which these taxes affect economic growth are discussed, and it is shown that in general the taxation of factor incomes (human and physical capital) is growth-reducing. The effects of consumption taxation on growth depend crucially on the elasticity of labor supply, and therefore on the specification of the leisure activity. The paper also derives some implications for the optimal intertemporal choice of tax instruments.




Tax Composition and Growth


Book Description

We investigate the relation between changes in tax composition and long-run economic growth using a new dataset covering a broad cross-section of countries with different income levels. We specifically consider 69 countries with at least 20 years of observations on total tax revenue during the period 1970-2009—21 high-income, 23 middle-income and 25 low-income countries. To our knowledge this is the most comprehensive and up-to-date dataset on tax composition and growth. We find that increasing income taxes while reducing consumption and property taxes is associated with slower growth over the long run. We also find that: (1) among income taxes, social security contributions and personal income taxes have a stronger negative association with growth than corporate income taxes; (2) a shift from income taxes to property taxes has a strong positive association with growth; and (3) a reduction in income taxes while increasing value added and sales taxes is also associated with faster growth.




The Value Added Tax and Growth: Design Matters


Book Description

Does the design of a tax matter for growth? Assembling a novel dataset for 30 OECD countries over the 1970-2016 period, this paper examines whether the value added tax (VAT) may have different effects on long-run growth depending on whether it is raised through the standard rate or through C-efficiency (a measure of the departure of the VAT from a perfectly enforced tax levied at a single rate on all consumption). Our key findings are twofold. First, for a given total tax revenue, a rise in the VAT, financed by a fall in income taxes, promotes growth only when the VAT is raised through C-efficiency. Second, for a given VAT revenue, a rise in Cefficiency, offset by a fall in the standard rate, also promotes growth. The implication is thus that in OECD countries broadening the VAT base through fewer reduced rates and exemptions is more conducive to higher long-run growth than a rise in the standard rate.




Tax Reform in Developing Countries


Book Description

Tax Reform in Developing Countries carefully examines the experience of eight developing countries that have undergone -- and in some instances are still undergoing -- significant and comprehensive tax reform. The countries are Bolivia, Colombia, Indonesia, Jamaica, Korea, Mexico, Morocco, and Turkey. It draws on their experiences to find lessons learned and to see how they may be applied to other countries on the road to tax reform. Equal attention is given to the process of tax reform, how it is implemented, and the substance or results of reform efforts. Throughout, the focus is on the practical rather than the theoretical aspects of tax reform.




The Economics and Econometrics of Innovation


Book Description

This overview of work in the field of innovation and technical change collects 22 contributions that reflect worldwide research efforts and the role of economic incentives in shaping and directing innovative activities. The papers are from the 10th International ADRES conference.




Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth


Book Description

The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed, there is a strong case for considering inequality and an inability to sustain economic growth as two sides of the same coin. Central to the Fund’s mandate is providing advice that will enable members’ economies to grow on a sustained basis. But the Fund has rightly been cautious about recommending the use of redistributive policies given that such policies may themselves undercut economic efficiency and the prospects for sustained growth (the so-called “leaky bucket” hypothesis written about by the famous Yale economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s). This SDN follows up the previous SDN on inequality and growth by focusing on the role of redistribution. It finds that, from the perspective of the best available macroeconomic data, there is not a lot of evidence that redistribution has in fact undercut economic growth (except in extreme cases). One should be careful not to assume therefore—as Okun and others have—that there is a big tradeoff between redistribution and growth. The best available macroeconomic data do not support such a conclusion.




For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation


Book Description

Many studies predict massive job losses and real wage decline as a result of the ongoing widespread automation of production, a trend that may be further aggravated by the COVID-19 crisis. Yet automation is also expected to raise productivity and output. How can we share the gains from automation more widely, for the benefit of all? And what are the attendant equity-efficiency trade-offs? We analyze this issue by considering the effects of fiscal policies that seek to redistribute the gains from automation and address income inequality. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition, including a novel specification linking corporate power to automation. While fiscal policy cannot eliminate the classic equity-efficiency trade-offs, it can help improve them, reducing inequality at small or no loss of output. This is particularly so when policy takes advantage of novel, less distortive transmission channels of fiscal policy created by the empirically observed link between corporate market power and automation.