Term Structure Dynamics with Macro Factors Using High Frequency Data


Book Description

This paper empirically studies the role of macro factors in explaining and predicting daily bond yields. In general, macro-finance models use low-frequency data to match with macroeconomic variables available only at low frequencies. To deal with this, we construct and estimate a tractable no-arbitrage affine model with both conventional latent factors and macro factors by imposing cross-equation restrictions on the daily yields of bonds with different maturities, credit risks, and inflation indexation. The estimation results using both the US and UK data show that the estimated macro factors significantly predict actual inflation and the output gap. In addition, our daily macro term structure model forecasts better than no-arbitrage models with only latent factors as well as other statistical models.




Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic Factors


Book Description

Affine term structure models (ATSMs) are known to have a trade-off in predicting future Treasury yields and fitting the time-varying volatility of interest rates. First, I empirically study the role of macroeconomic variables in simultaneously achieving these two goals under affine models. To this end, I incorporate a liquidity demand theory via a measure of the velocity of money into affine models. I find that this considerably reduces the statistical tension between matching the first and second moments of interest rates. In terms of forecasting yields, the models with the velocity of money outperform among the ATSMs examined, including those with inflation and real activity. My result is robust across maturities, forecasting horizons, risk price specifications, and the number of latent factors. Next, I incorporate latent macro factors and the spread factor between the short-term Treasury yield and the federal funds rate into an affine term structure model by imposing cross-equation restrictions from no-arbitrage using daily data. In doing so, I identify the highfrequency monetary policy rule that describes the central bank's reaction to expected inflation and real activity at daily frequency. I find that my affine model with macro factors and the spread factor shows better forecasting performance.










The Term Structure, Latent Factors and Macroeconomic Data


Book Description

This paper applies a local linear level model to European yields using the state space methodology to structural equation models in order to obtain an unobserved state vector containing the level, slope and seasonal component of the yields. In addition, this has been performed by differentiating money markets from capital markets' yields. Also an affine term structure model has been calibrated using the estimated level, slope and seasonality from the local linear level model. It is shown that both, the local level model as well as the no-arbitrage approach, perform quite well in replicating the yields. The model also shows that there is strong evidence of macroeconomic effects influencing the level, the slope and the seasonal components common to a set of yields (the yield curve). However, this paper shows that there is weak evidence of yields influencing European macroeconomic variables. This could be interpreted as the central bank and markets responding to macroeconomic releases, which is observed in yield movements, but there is weak evidence of yield innovations influencing the macroeconomy.




Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling


Book Description

State-of-the-art research from academics and policymakers on the role of and challenges to monetary policy during the ongoing financial crisis.




Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates


Book Description

I formulate an affine term structure model of bond yields from a general equilibrium business-cycle model, with observable macro state variables of the structural economy as the factors. The factor representing monetary policy is strongly mean-reverting, and its influence on the term structure is primarily through changing the slope of the yield curve. The factor representing technology is more persistent, and it affects the term structure by shifting the level of the yield curve. The dynamic implications of the model for the macro economy and the term structure are consistent with the broad empirical patterns. From simulation studies of the macro-factor model I can extract the level and slope factors, similar to the ones extracted from the empirical term structure estimations. Simulation studies also show that the movement of the slope factor is primarily driven by the monetary-policy innovations, and the changes of the level factor is more closely associated with the aggregate-supply shocks from the private sector.




Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing


Book Description

Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.







Term-Structure Models


Book Description

Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.