Author : John W. Payne
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 31,31 MB
Release : 1993-05-28
Category : Education
ISBN : 9780521425261
The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predicts which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyse how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.
Author : John W. Payne
Publisher :
Page : 330 pages
File Size : 42,89 MB
Release : 1993
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 355 pages
File Size : 19,92 MB
Release : 2011-09-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 026225834X
An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble—and why experience can’t be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines—gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete—but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples—ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O’Brian’s Master and Commander novels—to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn’t. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything. “I know of no one who combines theory and observation—intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world—so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.” —Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink
Author : Francesco Sofo
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 126 pages
File Size : 26,96 MB
Release : 2013-03-19
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 146146708X
This exciting publication provides the reader with a theoretical and practical approach to adaptive decision making, based on an appreciation of cognitive styles, in a cross-cultural context. The aim of this Brief is to describe the role of thinking-through different options as part of the decision-making process. Since cognitive style influences decision behavior, the book will first examine thinking styles, which involve both cognitive and emotive elements, as habits or preferences that shape and empower one’s cognition and emotion. The information contained in this Brief will be a useful resource to both researchers studying decision making as well as to instructors in the higher education sector and to human resource development practitioners, especially those working in international, multi-cultural companies.
Author : John W. Payne
Publisher :
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 41,57 MB
Release : 1989
Category :
ISBN :
Research has shown that the strategies people use to evaluate and choose among a set of multiattribute alternatives are highly sensitive to a variety of task and context variables. This chapter reviews a program of research concerned with better understanding how decision making behavior is contingent upon properties of the decision task. The perspective adopted is that strategy selection is a function of both costs, primarily the effort required to use a decision Rule, and benefits, primarily the ability of a strategy to select the best alternative. A series of experiments involving both Monte-Carlo simulation and process-tracing techniques is reported that support the effort-accuracy framework. Unresolved issues of learning, bottom-up as well as top-down processing, and the role of incentives in strategy selection are then discussed. Finally, an implication of adaptive decision behavior for improving decisions by designing information displays which make effective processing easier is outlined. (KR).
Author : Michael J. Conroy
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 12,80 MB
Release : 2013-03-18
Category : Science
ISBN : 0470671742
This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches for modeling decision influence and incorporating feedback from monitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management. Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along with detailed case studies illustrating the authors’ experience in applying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailed technical appendices. An accompanying website provides computer code and data used in the worked examples. Additional resources for this book can be found at: www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement.
Author : Matthew Tierney MacMahon
Publisher :
Page : 142 pages
File Size : 50,15 MB
Release : 2002
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 30,82 MB
Release : 2017-09-15
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 0262534290
As seen in Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink—the modern, groundbreaking classic on effective decision making. How people really make decisions: by drawing on prior experience and using a combination of intuition and analysis. We have all seen images of firefighters rescuing people from burning buildings and paramedics treating bombing victims. How do these individuals make the split-second decisions that save lives? Most studies of decision making, based on artificial tasks assigned in laboratory settings, view people as biased and unskilled. In this modern classic, Gary A. Klein proposes a naturalistic approach to decision making, which views people as gaining experience that then enables them to use a combination of intuition and analysis to make decisions. To illustrate this approach, Klein tells stories of people—from pilots to chess masters—acting under such real-life constraints as time pressure, high stakes, personal responsibility, and shifting conditions. Since its publication, Sources of Power has been enormously influential. The book has sold more than 50,000 copies, has been translated into six languages, has been cited in professional journals that range from Journal of Marketing Research to Journal of Nursing, and is mentioned by Malcolm Gladwell in Blink. Author Gary Klein has collaborated with Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and served on a team that redesigned the White House Situation Room to support more effective decision making. The model of decision-making Klein proposes in the book has been adopted in many fields, including law enforcement training and petrochemical plant operation.
Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 21,1 MB
Release : 2019-04-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3030052524
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Author : Priyanka Chandana Paranagama
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 21,90 MB
Release : 2000
Category : Computer architecture
ISBN :
