Rethinking the International Monetary System


Book Description

According to a recent World Bank study, the Asian crisis led to a significant rise in poverty and sharp declines in middle-class living standards in the countries most affected. Real public spending on health and education fell, with poor households experiencing the largest declines in access to these services. The impact of decreased investment in human capital will have consequences for individuals and whole societies for years to come. Because these external shocks occurred very shortly after these countries had liberalized their capital markets, they have engendered a growing distrust of globalization in many parts of the world. We owe it to the people of the developing countries, as well as to ourselves, to consider how institutional or policy changes could moderate such setbacks in the future. For all these reasons, this conference seemed a good time to pause and consider the implications of recent events, institutional changes, and new research for the evolution of the international monetary system. Representing frontline countries and frontline institutions, many of the conference participants had struggled firsthand with the dilemmas posed by the recent crises. Thus, they brought unique perspectives on the issues and offered thoughtful observations and useful ideas that could improve the workings of the international monetary system. It is our hope that this publication of their views will stimulate further discussion, research and, more than partial implementation.




A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System


Book Description

At the close of the Second World War, when industrialized nations faced serious trade and financial imbalances, delegates from forty-four countries met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in order to reconstruct the international monetary system. In this volume, three generations of scholars and policy makers, some of whom participated in the 1944 conference, consider how the Bretton Woods System contributed to unprecedented economic stability and rapid growth for 25 years and discuss the problems that plagued the system and led to its eventual collapse in 1971. The contributors explore adjustment, liquidity, and transmission under the System; the way it affected developing countries; and the role of the International Monetary Fund in maintaining a stable rate. The authors examine the reasons for the System's success and eventual collapse, compare it to subsequent monetary regimes, such as the European Monetary System, and address the possibility of a new fixed exchange rate for today's world.




Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era


Book Description

An analysis of the operation and consequences of exchange rate regimes in an era of increasing international interdependence. The exchange rate is sometimes called the most important price in a highly globalized world. A country's choice of its exchange rate regime, between government-managed fixed rates and market-determined floating rates has significant implications for monetary policy, trade, and macroeconomic outcomes, and is the subject of both academic and policy debate. In this book, two leading economists examine the operation and consequences of exchange rate regimes in an era of increasing international interdependence. Michael Klein and Jay Shambaugh focus on the evolution of exchange rate regimes in the modern era, the period since 1973, which followed the Bretton Woods era of 1945-72 and the pre-World War I gold standard era. Klein and Shambaugh offer a comprehensive, integrated treatment of the characteristics of exchange rate regimes and their effects. The book draws on and synthesizes data from the recent wave of empirical research on this topic, and includes new findings that challenge preconceived notions.




The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes


Book Description

ical) and to self-fulfilling currency crisis, respectively. Research stressing the former approach was pioneered by Krugman (1979) and Flood and Garber (1984). According to this line of research, the failure of governments to adopt domestic monetary and fiscal policies consistent with their stated exchange rate targets leads to a gradual diminution of reserves and eventually a stock adjustment that depletes reserves suddenly in one attack (Sachs, Tornell, and Velasco, 1996, page 47). The result is either a devaluation of the exchange rate or a switch to floating. Subsequent work of this genre has specified a number of other channels, in addition to that involving inconsistent and unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies, that can precipitate an attack: 1. Inconsistency between external and internal objectives. The stances of monetary and fiscal policies may be consistent with the authorities' exchange rate target, but domestic economic indicators (such as the unemployment rate) may be inconsistent with internal balance, resulting in pressures on the authorities to relax macroeconomic policies. Private agents, aware of this inconsistency, perceive an opportunity for profits from a currency devaluation and precipitate an attack. 2. Contagion effects. Prior to an attack on another currency (say that of country B), the market may view a country's (say, country A's) exchange rate as consistent with economic fundamentals and, thus, sustainable.




Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries


Book Description

The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.




Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes


Book Description

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.




Too Sensational


Book Description

Most of the literature on exchange rate regimes has focused on the developed countries. Since the recent crises in emerging markets, however, attention has shifted to the choice of exchange rate regimes for developing countries, especially those that are more integrated into the world capital markets. In Too Sensational, W. Max Corden presents a systematic and accessible overview of the choice of exchange rate regimes. Reviewing many types of regimes, he shows how the choice of an exchange rate regime is related to both fiscal policy and trade policy. Building on the theory of optimum currency areas, Corden develops an analytic framework of three approaches (nominal anchor, real targets, and exchange rate stability) and three polar exchange rate regimes (absolutely fixed, pure floating, and fixed but adjustable). He considers all other regimes to be mixtures of two or three of the polar regimes. Beginning with theory and later turning to case studies of countries in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, Corden focuses on how economies react to negative and positive shocks under various exchange rate regimes. He examines in particular the Asian and Latin American currency crises of the 1990s. He concludes that although "too sensational" crises have discredited fixed but adjustable regimes, the extremes of absolutely fixed regimes or pure floating regimes need not be chosen.




China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime


Book Description

China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.




Modern Exchange-rate Regimes, Stabilisation Programmes and Co-ordination of Macroeconomic Policies


Book Description

Published in 1999, this work analyzes the phenomenon of macroeconomic adjustment, with special emphasis on selected Latin American countries facing stabilization programmes. It provides a historical description of the origins, functioning and collapse of exchange-rate regimes from the international classical gold standard period to modern arrangements. The author supports the argument that systemic asymmetries in the worldwide adjustment mechanism are inherent in the international monetary system. The recent theoretical literature dealing with the rules vs discretion debate and its interaction with the credibility issue is reviewed. This topic is intrinsically related to the dispute over the appropriate role of exchange-rate anchors in disinflation programmes. Against a background of academic dispute between advocates of exchange-rate prescriptions and monetary conceptions, the contrasting views of different theorists regarding the choice of exchange rate regimes are presented and assessed. Finally, a comparative analysis of recent experiments in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico with exchange-rate based disinflation stabilization programmes is undertaken. The problems that have arisen while establishing new institutional arrangements, such as new currency or a policy rule for monetary base creation, are examined.




Currency Politics


Book Description

The politics surrounding exchange rate policies in the global economy The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices. Exchange rates are set, either directly or indirectly, by government policy. Exchange rates are also central to the global economy, for they profoundly influence all international economic activity. Despite the critical role of exchange rate policy, there are few definitive explanations of why governments choose the currency policies they do. Filled with in-depth cases and examples, Currency Politics presents a comprehensive analysis of the politics surrounding exchange rates. Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry's characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. With an ambitious mix of narrative and statistical investigation, Currency Politics clarifies the political and economic determinants of exchange rate policies.