The Demand for Oil Products in Developing Countries


Book Description

World Bank Discussion Paper No. 354. Promoting a high savings rate is high on the World Bank's agenda for promoting national income growth. This study surveys broad saving trends worldwide, summarizes current knowledge about savings and consumption, identifies main unresolved issues, and outlines the major policy questions to be researched. The paper include case studies from Sub-Saharan Africa, China, Colombia, India, Mexico, and Pakistan.




The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries


Book Description

How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade? How will their economic growth affect world demand? To answer these questions, the authors have tried to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next ten years. Although the focus is mainly on demand for oil, some attention is given to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. The data used in fitting the models cover 77 NOLDCs, which, in 1976, accounted for 79 percent of total oil consumption by all 124 NOLDCs. The uncertainties associated with the forecasts are spelled out, as are the income and price elasticities on which the forecasts are based. Finally, the authors consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for U.S. energy policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.




Review and Outlook for the World Oil Market


Book Description

After the collapse of the Soviet system, the immense problems of environmental pollution in Central and Eastern Europe were widely publicized. Less well known were its effects on health in the region, which have led to a serious health crisis. This report examines the degree to which the pollution adversely affected human health, putting it in the context of other health determinants such as socioeconomic factors, health care standards and availability, and lifestyle factors. Among the numerous pollutants, the report points to lead, dust, toxic gases, and nitrates in rural water supplies as having a significant impact on health in Central and Eastern Europe. The author suggests possible avenues for international action. However, an analysis of the determinants of health reveals that addressing the pollution problems alone will not solve the health crisis. Improving health in this region will depend on the changing economic fortunes of individual countries and the ability of each to create a supportive social environment for its citizens.




The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries


Book Description

How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade? Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important? How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs? In this report, the authors try to develop some reasonable forecasts of the range of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. They have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with these forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, they consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for U.S. policies concerning NOLDCs, and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues. Although some results will be reported for total commercial demand for energy, and its associated income and price elasticities, their main emphasis is on NOLDC demand for oil. While they do not attempt to estimate cross elasticities of demand between oil and other fuels, the range of uncertainty in their reported estimates for oil demand is probably sufficient to cover a reasonable allowance for cross elasticities. Chapter 2 provides a brief background, summarizing previous estimates (or assumptions) about price and income elasticities of demand, previous demand forecasts, and the methods used in making them. Chapter 3 summarizes the models and data the authors have used, and their principal results: price and income elasticities for the NOLDCs as a group, and for several subgroups; forecasts of NOLDC oil and energy demand in 1985 and 1990; and the scaling of these forecasts relative to world demand for both energy and oil. Finally, Chapter 4 suggests implications for U.S. policy and for further research.




Oil, Debt and Development


Book Description

This book, originally published in 1981, discusses the various welfare effects – including ai, debt, trade and labour flows - of the rise in oil prices and revenues which took place in the 1970s. These complex effects and the negotiating stances of the developing countries are all examined an dinvestigated, drawing upon a wide range of sources and material for the more quantitative parts. Throughout, however, the treatment is non-mathematical and is written in clear English accessible not only to bankers and polititians, but also students of economics, international relationjs and area studies.




Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices


Book Description

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.




Overcoming Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices


Book Description

Soaring oil prices are threatening the prospects of millions of people in the developing world and posing an unforeseen challenge to the Millennium Development Goals. This report examines the impact of rising oil prices since 2003 on developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region. It represents a set of policy options and priorities that can help reduce national vulnerability to future price rises and protect the interests of the poor. The report also includes field studies carried out in rural and urban areas of four countries: China, India, Indonesia and Lao PDR.




Energy Demand in the Developing Countries


Book Description

Studies about the key factors that have contributed to the historical increases in energy consumption in theeight major developing countries and evaluates the changes likely to occur in the future.




The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation


Book Description

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.




Oil Prices and the Global Economy


Book Description

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.