Beyond Six Billion


Book Description

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.




Recent Fertility Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa


Book Description

Fertility rates and population growth influence economic development. The marked declines in fertility seen in some developing nations have been accompanied by slowing population growth, which in turn provided a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth. For many sub-Saharan African nations, this window has not yet opened because fertility rates have not declined as rapidly there as elsewhere. Fertility rates in many sub-Saharan African countries are high: the total rate for the region is estimated to be 5.1 births per woman, and rates that had begun to decline in many countries in the region have stalled. High rates of fertility in these countries are likely to contribute to continued rapid population growth: the United Nations projects that the region's population will increase by 1.2 billion by 2050, the highest growth among the regions for which there are projections. In June 2015, the Committee on Population organized a workshop to explore fertility trends and the factors that have influenced them. The workshop committee was asked to explore history and trends related to fertility, proximate determinants and other influences, the status and impact of family planning programs, and prospects for further reducing fertility rates. This study will help donors, researchers, and policy makers better understand the factors that may explain the slow pace of fertility decline in this region, and develop methods to improve family planning in sub-Saharan Africa.




Fertility Decline in Developing Countries, 1960-1997


Book Description

With the emergence of fertility declines in the greater part of the developing world, study of the phenomenon has increased profoundly over the last three decades, and a voluminous amount of literature has emerged. Yet our knowledge of the decline is scattered in numerous publications, making sources difficult to find. This bibliography provides a guide to the literature on fertility decline in Latin America, Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. It will be an invaluable asset for population experts and students wishing to do research on fertility decline. Covering the literature from 1960 to 1997, the book draws on extensive sources including books, articles in leading population journals, research papers, and dissertations. The opening chapter covers the literature on theories and concepts underlying fertility decline. The next three chapters are devoted to the major geographical areas—Latin America, Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa—and the final chapter looks at general literature on fertility declines in developing countries.




World Fertility and Family Planning 2020: Highlights


Book Description

The main contents are key findings and messages regarding the relationship between contraceptive use and fertility, for 195 countries or areas of the world. These highlights will draw mainly from World Population Prospects 2019, and model-based estimates and projections of family planning indicators 2019. Policy-related implications of and responses to trends in family planning and fertility will be integrated throughout the text. In particular, these issues are of relevance for contextualizing Sustainable Development Goals 3.7.1. and 3.7.2. and the achievement of the 2030 Agenda.




Vital Rates in India, 1961-1981


Book Description




The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia


Book Description

Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.




Brazil in the Anthropocene


Book Description

Brazil is considered one of the world’s most important environmental powers. With a continental territory containing almost 70 per cent of the Amazon rainforest, along with a rich biodiversity and huge amount of natural resources, its geopolitical role in environmental decisions is crucial to ongoing global negotiations surrounding climate change. Development policies based on extraction and exportation of raw materials by the mining and agribusiness sectors threaten the global environmental balance and the long-term sustainability of Brazil’s economy. Brazil in the Anthropocene examines Brazil's role within the global ecological crisis and considers how national and international policy is influenced by the interdependence of social, political, ethical, scientific and economic factors in the modern age. With chapters from a diverse range of international scholars this interdisciplinary volume will be of great interest to students and scholars of environmental politics, environmental sociology and the environmental humanities.




The Methods and Uses of Anthropological Demography


Book Description

This volume takes stock of the current status of the comparatively new discipline of `Anthropological Demography', and discusses its major methods, its main strengths, and its chief limitations. It includes contributions from both mainstream demographers and foremost anthropologists, all stressing the necessity of a shared agenda for each discipline to progress successfully and avoid marginalization. While the unique research and personal satisfaction afforded by `participant observation' is described, the book also highlights the potential contribution to the understanding of demographic events of much more than the field methods of traditional anthropology. In particular, it stresses the insights possible from qualitative focus group interviews, from longitudinal studies and from a greater interest in `armchair' anthropology, in which demographers complement their quantitative findings with qualitative information and understanding gleaned from a careful reading of the anthropological literature, in the form of both ethnographies and anthropological theories. In addition, it stresses the larger world of the ideal anthropological demographer: a world that includes the cultural context of course, but also takes into account the historical and political forces that condition so much individual behaviour. But the book is also a critical venture. It includes therefore considerable discussion of the common limits of the purely anthropological approach for understanding demographic events and processes, especially from a larger policy perspective, at the same time as it emphasizes the crucial role of the anthropological approach to designing policy that is potentially effective as well as socially and culturally sensitive. It reiterates the often complementary role of anthropological demography and also discusses some specific questions in demographic research which it does not as yet seem to have the capacity to illuminate. The book is aimed primarily at demographers wishing to broaden their research agenda and deepen their understanding of demographic behaviour, but it also hopes to convert mainstream anthropologists to take a more active interest in demographic issues. Both disciplines, after all, have a common intense interest in the kind of life and death issues that they can fruitfully explore together or by using one another's research methods.