The Economy of Certainty


Book Description

Aron Zysow's 1984 Ph.D. dissertation, "The Economy of Certainty," remains the most important, compelling, and intellectually ambitious treatment of Islamic legal theory (usul al-fiqh) in Western scholarship to date. It continues to be widely read and cited, and remains unsurpassed in its incisive analysis of the most fundamental assumptions of Islamic legal thought. Zysow argues that the great dividing line in Islamic legal thought is between those legal theories that require certainty in every detail of the law and those that will admit probability. The latter were historically dominant and include the leading legal schools that have survived to our own day. Zahirism and, for much of its history, Twelver Shi'ism, are examples of the former. The well-known dispute regarding the legitimacy of juridical analogy is only one feature of this fundamental epistemological division, since probability can enter the law in the process of authenticating prophetic traditions and in the interpretation of the revealed texts, as well as through analogy. The notion of consensus in Islamic legal theory functioned to reintroduce some measure of certainty into the law by identifying one of the competing probable solutions as correct. Consequently consensus has only a reduced role, if any, in those systems that reject probability. Another, more radical, means of regaining certainty was the doctrine that regarded the legal reasoning of all qualified jurists on matters of probability as infallible. The development of legal theories of both types, that of Zahirism no less than that of Hanafism, was to a large extent shaped by theology and, most significantly, by Mu'tazilism, and subsequently by Ash'arism and Maturidism. Zysow's important work is published here in full, for the first time, with updated references and some further reflections by the author.




The Limits to Certainty


Book Description

I consider it a privilege to have been invited to write a preface for "The Limits to Certainty". It is however paradoxical that a theo retical physicist be asked to write about a monograph dealing mainly with service economics. Notwithstanding, I am delighted to do so. Indeed, it is striking that two so widely different fields like physics and social science, and more especially economics, can interact in such a constructive way. There is no question here of reductionism. Nobody claims to be able to reduce social scien ces to physics, nor to use patterns of social interaction in order to formulate new laws for atoms. What is at stake here is more im portant than reduction; the age-old separation between the so-cal led "hard" and "soft sciences" is breaking down. This separation has a long history. First, one should recall the influence of Newton's achievement on the formulation of scienti fic goals. This influence led to the formulation of equilibrium mo dels for supply/demand adjustment. As was noticed by Walter Weisskopf: "the Newtonian paradigm underlying classical and non-classical economics interpreted the economy according to the patterns developed in classical physics and mechanics, in analogy to the planetary system, to a machine or clockwork: a closed auto nomous system ruled by endogenous factors of a highly selective nature, self-regulating and moving to a determinate, predictable point of equilibrium" (The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance (1984), Vol. 9, no. 33, pp. 335-360).




Faith Without Certainty


Book Description

This book lays out the basic characteristics of liberal theology, delving into historical and philosophical sources as well as social and intellectual roots. Ideal for readers who want a better understanding of liberal theology, a religious tradition that is rooted not in authority but in one's own experience and conscience.




The Limits to Certainty


Book Description




What’s Wrong with Economics?


Book Description

A passionate and informed critique of mainstream economics from one of the leading economic thinkers of our time This insightful book looks at how mainstream economics’ quest for scientific certainty has led to a narrowing of vision and a convergence on an orthodoxy that is unhealthy for the field, not to mention the societies which base policy decisions on the advice of flawed economic models. Noted economic thinker Robert Skidelsky explains the circumstances that have brought about this constriction and proposes an approach to economics which includes philosophy, history, sociology, and politics. Skidelsky’s clearly written and compelling critique takes aim at the way that economics is taught in today’s universities, where a focus on modelling leaves students ill-equipped to grapple with what is important and true about human life. He argues for a return to the ideal set out by John Maynard Keynes that the economist must be a “mathematician, historian, statesman, [and] philosopher” in equal measure.




Risk, Uncertainty and Profit


Book Description

A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.




The Age of Surveillance Capitalism


Book Description

The challenges to humanity posed by the digital future, the first detailed examination of the unprecedented form of power called "surveillance capitalism," and the quest by powerful corporations to predict and control our behavior. In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in the twenty-first century just as industrial capitalism disfigured the natural world in the twentieth. Zuboff vividly brings to life the consequences as surveillance capitalism advances from Silicon Valley into every economic sector. Vast wealth and power are accumulated in ominous new "behavioral futures markets," where predictions about our behavior are bought and sold, and the production of goods and services is subordinated to a new "means of behavioral modification." The threat has shifted from a totalitarian Big Brother state to a ubiquitous digital architecture: a "Big Other" operating in the interests of surveillance capital. Here is the crucible of an unprecedented form of power marked by extreme concentrations of knowledge and free from democratic oversight. Zuboff's comprehensive and moving analysis lays bare the threats to twenty-first century society: a controlled "hive" of total connection that seduces with promises of total certainty for maximum profit -- at the expense of democracy, freedom, and our human future. With little resistance from law or society, surveillance capitalism is on the verge of dominating the social order and shaping the digital future -- if we let it.




Animal Spirits


Book Description

From acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, the case for why government is needed to restore confidence in the economy The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government—simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life—such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes—and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits—the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time—unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.




Between Certainty and Uncertainty


Book Description

„Between Certainty & Uncertainty” is a one-of–a-kind short course on statistics for students, engineers and researchers. It is a fascinating introduction to statistics and probability with notes on historical origins and 80 illustrative numerical examples organized in the five units: · Chapter 1 Descriptive Statistics: Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics . · Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables. Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles. · Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions as a prerequisite to the concept of two regression lines. Misleading in interpreting two regression lines. Derivation of the two regression lines. Was Hubble right? Houbolt’s cloud. What in fact measures the correlation coefficient? · Chapter 4 Binomial distribution: Middle ages origins of the binomials; figurate numbers and combinatorial rules. Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle. Bernoulli’s or Poisson Trials? John Arbuthnot curing binomials. How Newton taught S. Pepys probability. Jacob Bernoulli’s Weak Law of Large Numbers and others. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace. · Chapter 1 Descriptive Statistics: Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics . · Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables. Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles. · Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions as a prerequisite to the concept of two regression lines. Misleading in interpreting two regression lines. Derivation of the two regression lines. Was Hubble right? Houbolt’s cloud. What in fact measures the correlation coefficient? · Chapter 4 Binomial distribution: Middle ages origins of the binomials; figurate numbers and combinatorial rules. Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle. Bernoulli’s or Poisson Trials? John Arbuthnot curing binomials. How Newton taught S. Pepys probability. Jacob Bernoulli’s Weak Law of Large Numbers and others. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace.




The End of Certainty


Book Description

A bold, invigorating analysis of the decade that revolutionised Australian politics - the 1980s.