The Estimation of Probabilities


Book Description

The problem of how to estimate probabilities has interested philosophers, statisticians, actuaries, and mathematicians for a long time. It is currently of interest for automatic recognition, medical diagnosis, and artificial intelligence in general. The main purpose of this monograph is to review existing methods, especially those that are new or have not been written up in a connected manner. The need for nontrivial theory arises because our samples are usually too small for us to rely exclusively on the frequency definition of probability. Most of the techniques described in this book depend on a modern Bayesian approach. The maximum-entropy principle, also relevant to this discussion, is used in the last chapter. It is hoped that the book will stimulate further work in a field whose importance will increasingly be recognized. Methods for estimating probabilities are related to another part of statistics, namely, significance testing, and examples of this relationship are also presented. Many readers will be persuaded by this work that it is necessary to make use of a theory of subjective probability in order to estimate physical probabilities; and also that a useful idea is that of a hierarchy of three types of probability which can sometimes be identified with, physical, logical, and subjective probabilities. The Estimation of Probabilities is intended for statisticians, probabilists, philosophers of science, mathematicians, medical diagnosticians, and workers on artificial intelligence.




The Estimation Of Probabilities


Book Description

The problem of how to estimate probabilities has interested philosophers, statisticians, actuaries, and mathematicians for a long time. It is currently of interest for automatic recognition, medical diagnosis, and artificial intelligence in general. This monograph reviews existing methods, including those that are new or have not been written up in a connected manner. The problem of how to estimate probabilities has interested philosophers, statisticians, actuaries, and mathematicians for a long time. It is currently of interest for automatic recognition, medical diagnosis, and artificial intelligence in general. The main purpose of this monograph is to review existing methods, especially those that are new or have not been written about in an organized way. The need for nontrivial theory arises because our samples are usually too small for us to rely exclusively on the frequency definition of probability. Most of the techniques described in this book depend on a modern Bayesian approach. The maximum-entropy principle, also relevant to this discussion, is used in the last chapter. It is hoped that the book will stimulate further work in a field whose importance will increasingly be recognized. Methods for estimating probabilities are related to another part of statistics, namely, significance testing, and example of this relationship are also presented. Many readers will be persuaded by this work that it is necessary to make use of a theory of subjective probability in order to estimate physical probabilities and also that a useful idea is that of a hierarchy of three types of probability which can sometimes be identified with physical, logical, and subjective probabilities.




Estimating and Choosing


Book Description

Ever since the beginning of modern probability theory in the seventeenth century there has been a continuous debate over the meaning and applicability of the concept of probability. This book presents a coherent and well thoughtout framework for the use of probabilistic models to describe unique phenomena in a purely objective way. Although Estimating and Choosing was written with geostatistical applications in mind, the approach is of general applicability across the whole spectrum of probabilistic modelling. The only full-fledged treatment of the foundations of practical probability modelling ever written, this book fills an important gap in the literature of probability and statistics.




Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems


Book Description

Rare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem.Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues







Foundations of Estimation Theory


Book Description

The application of estimation theory renders the processing of experimental results both rational and effective, and thus helps not only to make our knowledge more precise but to determine the measure of its reliability. As a consequence, estimation theory is indispensable in the analysis of the measuring processes and of experiments in general.The knowledge necessary for studying this book encompasses the disciplines of probability and mathematical statistics as studied in the third or fourth year at university. For readers interested in applications, comparatively detailed chapters on linear and quadratic estimations, and normality of observation vectors have been included. Chapter 2 includes selected items of information from algebra, functional analysis and the theory of probability, intended to facilitate the reading of the text proper and to save the reader looking up individual theorems in various textbooks and papers; it is mainly devoted to the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, helpful in solving many estimation problems. The text proper of the book begins with Chapter 3. This is divided into two parts: the first deals with sufficient statistics, complete sufficient statistics, minimal sufficient statistics and relations between them; the second contains the mostimportant inequalities of estimation theory for scalar and vector valued parameters and presents properties of the exponential family of distributions.The fourth chapter is an introduction to asymptotic methods of estimation. The method of statistical moments and the maximum-likelihood method are investigated. The sufficient conditions for asymptotical normality of the estimators are given for both methods. The linear and quadratic methods of estimation are dealt with in the fifth chapter. The method of least squares estimation is treated. Five basic regular versions of the regression model and the unified linear model of estimation are described. Unbiased estimators for unit dispersion (factor of the covariance matrix) are given for all mentioned cases. The equivalence of the least-squares method to the method of generalized minimum norm inversion of the design matrix of the regression model is studied in detail. The problem of estimating the covariance components in the mixed model is mentioned as well. Statistical properties of linear and quadratic estimators developed in the fifth chapter in the case of normally distributed errors of measurement are given in Chapter 6. Further, the application of tensor products of Hilbert spaces generated by the covariance matrix of random error vector of observations is demonstrated. Chapter 7 reviews some further important methods of estimation theory. In the first part Wald's method of decision functions is applied to the construction of estimators. The method of contracted estimators and the method of Hoerl and Kennard are presented in the second part. The basic ideas of robustness and Bahadur's approach to estimation theory are presented in the third and fourth parts of this last chapter.










Probability, Statistical Optics, and Data Testing


Book Description

Scientists in optics are increasingly confronted with problems that are of a random nature and that require a working knowledge of probability and statistics for their solution. This textbook develops these subjects within the context of optics using a problem-solving approach. All methods are explicitly derived and can be traced back to three simple axioms given at the outset. Students with some previous exposure to Fourier optics or linear theory will find the material particularly absorbing and easy to understand. This third edition contains many new applications to optical and physical phenomena. This includes a method of estimating probability laws exactly, by regarding them as laws of physics to be determined using a new variational principle.