The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier


Book Description

We show how real and financial frictions amplify the impact of uncertainty shocks. We build a model with real frictions, and find adding financial frictions roughly doubles the impact of uncertainty shocks. Higher uncertainty alongside financial frictions induces the standard real-options effects on investment and hiring, but also leads firms to hoard cash, further reducing investment and hiring. We then test the model using a panel of US firms and a novel instrumentation strategy for uncertainty exploiting differential firm exposure to exchange rate and price volatility. These results highlight why in periods with greater financial frictions uncertainty can be particularly damaging.




Financial Uncertainty and Real Activity


Book Description

This paper quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier (i.e., the magnifying effect of the real impact of uncertainty shocks due to financial frictions) by relying on two historical events related to the US economy, i.e., the large jump in financial uncertainty occurred in October 1987 (which was not accompanied by a deterioration of the credit supply conditions), and the comparable jump in financial uncertainty in September 2008 (which went hand-in-hand with an increase in financial stress). Working with a VAR framework and a set-identification strategy which focuses on - but it is not limited to - restrictions related to these two dates, we estimate the finance uncertainty multiplier to be equal to 2, i.e., credit supply disruptions are found to double the negative output response to an uncertainty shock. We then employ our model to estimate the overall economic cost of the COVID-19-induced uncertainty shock under different scenarios. Our results point to the possibility of a cumulative yearly loss of industrial production as large as 31% if credit supply gets disrupted. Liquidity interventions that keep credit conditions as healthy as they were before the COVID-19 uncertainty shock are found to substantially reduce such loss.




Uncertainty, Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation


Book Description

Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.




Financial Economics, Risk and Information


Book Description

Financial Economics, Risk and Information presents the fundamentals of finance in static and dynamic frameworks with focus on risk and information. The objective of this book is to introduce undergraduate and first-year graduate students to the methods and solutions of the main problems in finance theory relating to the economics of uncertainty and information. The main goal of the second edition is to make the materials more accessible to a wider audience of students and finance professionals. The focus is on developing a core body of theory that will provide the student with a solid intellectual foundation for more advanced topics and methods. The new edition has streamlined chapters and topics, with new sections on portfolio choice under alternative information structures. The starting point is the traditional mean-variance approach, followed by portfolio choice from first principles. The topics are extended to alternative market structures, alternative contractual arrangements and agency, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium in discrete and continuous time, attitudes towards risk and towards inter-temporal substitution in discrete and continuous time; and option pricing. In general, the book presents a balanced introduction to the use of stochastic methods in discrete and continuous time in the field of financial economics.




Policy Externalities And International Trade Agreements


Book Description

The book Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements is a selection of published articles examining how policy externalities motivate and can be addressed by international trading institutions. The studies provide groundbreaking evidence of the role of international market power and policy uncertainty as motives for trade agreements and on the potential clash between preferential trade liberalization (e.g. European Union, NAFTA) and multilateral agreements (WTO). The studies presented in this book not only identify and estimate how different policies interact with each other and across agreements, but also examine how international trading institutions can be used to limit redistribution towards special interest groups and enforce better cooperation across issues, such as labor and the environment, and between developing and developed countries.










Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies


Book Description

Macroeconomics increasingly uses stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models to understand theoretical and policy issues. Unless very strong assumptions are made, understanding the properties of particular models requires solving the model using a computer. This volume brings together leading contributors in the field who explain in detail how to implement the computational techniques needed to solve dynamic economics models. A broad spread of techniques are covered, and their application in a wide range of subjects discussed. The book provides the basics of a toolkit which researchers and graduate students can use to solve and analyse their own theoretical models.




Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis


Book Description

The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.




Economic Foundations for Finance


Book Description

This book provides readers with essential concepts from financial economics for an integrated study of the financial system and the real economy. It discusses how long-term market prices are determined and affected by population growth, technological progress and non-renewable resources. The meaning of market prices is examined from the perspective of households and from the perspective of firms. The book therefore connects different fields of finance, which usually focus only on either the households’ side or the firms’ side.