› › The Growth In Government Domestic Debt

Global Waves of Debt

Author : M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher : World Bank Publications

Page : 403 pages

File Size : 41,43 MB

Release : 2021-03-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1464815453

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Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.



Public Debt and Growth

Author : Jaejoon Woo

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 49 pages

File Size : 32,86 MB

Release : 2010-07-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 145520157X

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Book Description

This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.



Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

Author : Samba Mbaye

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 52 pages

File Size : 36,60 MB

Release : 2018-05-14

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484353595

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Book Description

This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.



This Time Is Different

Author : Carmen M. Reinhart

Publisher : Princeton University Press

Page : 513 pages

File Size : 18,78 MB

Release : 2011-08-07

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0691152640

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Book Description

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.



The Liquidation of Government Debt

Author : Ms.Carmen Reinhart

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 47 pages

File Size : 43,36 MB

Release : 2015-01-21

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1498338380

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Book Description

High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.



Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Author : Mr.Daniel Leigh

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 41 pages

File Size : 45,14 MB

Release : 2011-07-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1455294691

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Book Description

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.



Public Debt and Economic Growth

Author : Alfred Greiner

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 148 pages

File Size : 46,41 MB

Release : 2009-07-24

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 3642017452

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Book Description

Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.



Public Debt Through the Ages

Author : Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 60 pages

File Size : 13,82 MB

Release : 2019-01-15

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484392892

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Book Description

We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.



The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy

Author : Guillermo Calvo

Publisher : Springer

Page : 307 pages

File Size : 32,52 MB

Release : 1998-02-12

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1349260770

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Book Description

In all countries debt and deficits of the public sector are at the heart of economic policy debate. Debt and deficits pose major problems, all the more pressing in Europe because of the Maastricht criteria for entry into European Monetary Union. And in the developing world debt has been associated with major financial crises. This volume, arising from an International Economic Association conference at the Bundesbank, sees academics and policy makers debate the key issues and their implications in theory and practice.