Europe and Global Imbalances


Book Description

Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios, emphasizing both trade and financial channels. Finally, we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual European economies to external adjustment shocks.




The Fund's Mandate-The Legal Framework


Book Description

This paper is intended to accompany “The Fund’s Role and Mandate—An Overview” (the “Mandate Overview Paper”). Taking into account the issues raised in the Mandate Overview Paper and, in particular, the potential areas for reform that it identifies, this paper provides a brief analysis of both the constraints and flexibility that exist under the existing legal framework. At the outset, it is useful to identify several aspects of this framework that are of particular relevance.




Laid Low


Book Description

The latest book by journalist and author Paul Blustein to go behind the scenes at the highest levels of global economic policy making, Laid Low chronicles the International Monetary Fund’s role in the euro-zone crisis. Based on interviews with a wide range of participants and scrutiny of thousands of documents, the book tells how the IMF joined in bailouts that all too often piled debt atop debt and imposed excessively harsh conditions on crisis-stricken countries. As the author shows, IMF officials had grave misgivings about a number of these rescues, but went along at the insistence of powerful European policy makers — to the detriment of the Fund’s credibility, with disheartening implications for the management of future crises. The narrative ends with a tale of the clash between Greece’s radical Syriza government and the country’s creditor institutions that reached a dramatic climax in the summer of 2015.




Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis


Book Description

The first twenty years of the European Central Bank offer a unique insight into how a central bank can navigate macroeconomic insecurity and crisis. This volume examines the structures and decision-making processes behind the complex measures taken by the ECB to tackle some of the toughest economic challenges in the history of modern Europe.




Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe


Book Description

This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.







The IMF and European Economies


Book Description

This book examines the role that the IMF has played in the management of financial crises in developed nations. The topic is of particular significance in light of the global financial crisis that emerged following the collapse of American sub-prime mortgage markets in 2007, and the subsequent sovereign debt problems of many Western states.




Global Corporate Stress Tests—Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses


Book Description

Corporate sector vulnerabilities have been a central policy topic since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we analyze some 17,000 publicly listed firms in a sample of 24 countries, and assess their ability to withstand shocks induced by the pandemic to their liquidity, viability and solvency. For this purpose, we develop novel multi-factor sensitivity analysis and dynamic scenario-based stress test techniques to assess the impact of shocks on firm’s ability to service their debt, and on their liquidity and solvency positions. Applying the October 2020 WEO baseline and adverse scenarios, we find that a large share of publicly-listed firms become vulnerable as a result of the pandemic shock and additional borrowing needs to overcome cash shortfalls are large, while firm behavioral responses and policies substantially help overcome the impact of the shock in the near term. Looking forward, while interest coverage ratios tend to improve over time after the initial shock as earnings recover in line with projected macroeconomic conditions, liquidity needs remain substantial in many firms across countries and across industries, while insolvencies rise over time in specific industries. To inform policy debates, we offer an approach to a triage between viable and unviable firms, and find that the needs for liquidity support of viable firms remain important beyond 2020, and that medium-term debt restructuring needs and liquidations of firms may be substantial in the medium-term.




From Economic Crisis to Reform


Book Description

The wave of neoliberal economic reforms in the developing world since the 1980s has been regarded as the result of both severe economic crises and policy pressures from global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Using comparative evidence from the initiation and implementation of IMF programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe, From Economic Crisis to Reform shows that economic crises do not necessarily persuade governments to adopt IMF-style economic policies. Instead, ideology, interests, and institutions, at both the international and domestic levels, mediate responses to such crises. Grigore Pop-Eleches explains that the IMF's response to economic crises reflects the changing priorities of large IMF member countries. He argues that the IMF gives greater attention and favorable treatment to economic crises when they occur in economically or politically important countries. The book also shows how during the neoliberal consensus of the 1990s, economic crises triggered IMF-style reforms from governments across the ideological spectrum and how these reforms were broadly compatible with democratic politics. By contrast, during the Latin American debt crisis, the contentious politics of IMF programs reflected the ideological rivalries of the Cold War. Economic crises triggered ideologically divergent domestic policy responses and democracy was often at odds with economic adjustment. The author demonstrates that an economic crisis triggers neoliberal economic reforms only when the government and the IMF agree about the roots and severity of the crisis.




International and European Monetary Law


Book Description

This book introduces the fundamental monetary law problems of cross-border economic activity and the solutions thereto in international monetary law, and in EU law. After decades of having been neglected by legal scholars, international and European monetary law has attracted increasing attention in recent years. With the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), a full-fledged monetary union between sovereign States has been established for the first time in history. Its construction is primarily a work of law, with the Treaties on European Union (TEU) and on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) together with a number of protocols forming the constitutional basis. Yet, European monetary Integration has never taken place in isolation from international developments. Moreover, international monetary law, namely the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has always played a role - initially as the external monetary addition to the internal market project, after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System in the 1970s as one of the major driving forces for monetary Integration within the EU. On a fundamental basis, international and European monetary law address the same principled problems of monetary cooperation: how to proceed with financial transactions cross-border where no global currency exists. The present work describes the different approaches and relations and interplay between the two legal regimes.