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The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices

Author : Allen M. Poteshman

Publisher :

Page : pages

File Size : 37,56 MB

Release : 2010

Category :

ISBN :

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Book Description

We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique data set, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and nonpublicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is nonpublic information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.



The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices

Author : Jun Pan

Publisher :

Page : 36 pages

File Size : 36,45 MB

Release : 2004

Category : Stock price forecasting

ISBN :

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Book Description

We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock price movements. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and non-publicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is non-public information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability from option signals for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.



The Information in Option Volume for Stock Prices

Author : Allen M. Poteshman

Publisher :

Page : 28 pages

File Size : 49,98 MB

Release : 2009

Category :

ISBN :

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Book Description

We find strong evidence of information transmission from the options market to underlying stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put to call volume ratios for underlying stocks, using only volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Performing daily cross-sectional analyses from 1990 to 2001, we find that buying stocks with low put/call ratios and selling stocks with high put/call ratios generates an expected return of 40 basis points per day and 1 percent per week. This result is present during each year of our sample period, and is not affected by the exclusion of earnings announcement windows. Moreover, the result is stronger for smaller stocks, indicating that the options market may be a more important avenue for information transmission for stocks with less efficient information flow. Our analysis also sheds light on the type of investor behind the informed option trading. Specifically, we find that option trading from customers of full service brokers provides the strongest predictability, while that from firm proprietary traders is not informative. Furthermore, our analysis shows that while public customers on average trade in the options market as contrarians -- buying fresh new puts on stocks that have done well and calls on stocks that have done poorly, firm proprietary traders exhibit the opposite behavior. Finally, in contrast to the equity options market, we do not find any evidence of informed trading in the index options market.



Option Volume and Stock Prices

Author : David Easley

Publisher :

Page : pages

File Size : 18,67 MB

Release : 1998

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ISBN :

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Book Description

This paper investigates the informational role of transactions volume in options markets. We develop an asymmetric information model in which informed traders may trade in option or equity markets. We show conditions under which informed traders trade options, and we investigate the implications of this for the linkage between markets. Our model predicts an important informational role for the volume of particular types of option trades. We empirically test our model's hypotheses with intra-day option data. Our main empirical result is that negative and positive option volumes contain information about future stock prices.



Options:Essential Concepts, 3rd Edition

Author : The Options Institute

Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional

Page : 470 pages

File Size : 11,55 MB

Release : 1999-06-21

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 9780071341691

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Book Description

Get the acknowledged industry classic revised and updated to deliver everything from time-honored options concepts to strategies for individual and institutional investors and traders. Every stock trader or market maker, whether currently involved with options or not, should own OPTIONS: ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS AND TRADING STRATEGIES, THIRD EDITION. Written by todays leading options practitionersand edited by The Options Institute, the globally renowned Educational Division of the Chicago Board Options ExchangeOPTIONS leaves no stone unturned in delivering the most complete, authoritative, and easy-to-understand blueprint available for navigating the profitable twists and turns of todays options marketplace. No-nonsense, packed with useful information, and valuable as either an introductory textbook or a comprehensive fingertip reference source, this thoroughly revised and updated edition details: What options are, how they are priced, and how they are traded; Basic option trading strategies such as covered writing and protective puts; Advanced strategies involving LEAPS and the stock repair strategy; Options from three points of view: private investor, institutional investor, and market maker; How to use the power of the Internet for trading and detailed information gathering. The well-organized, thought-provoking, and dependable ideas found here will help you use options to increase the returns in virtually any investment mix. The comprehensive answers to a wide range of options questions, as well as insights into the latest options trading strategies, cover: Option Market History From early transactions to latter-day innovations including LEAPS and index options, knowledge of options industry history will help you intuitively understand and trade profitably today; Essential Concepts Fundamentals of options pricing theory and their relationship to market prediction, stock selection, and risk management; volatility explained; and introductory strategies from long call to covered strangle; Investing and Trading Strategies Discussions of how to approach and understand "investing" strategies that focus on ownership of an underlying equity versus "trading". strategies with no intent to hold the underlying stock; plus, the function of market makers ; Real-Time Applications Institutional case studies; how to use options as an indicator of price moves for an underlying stock; using the Internet for instantaneous trades and information; plus, a comprehensive glossary of option market terminology. OPTIONS, THIRD EDITION, takes the guesswork out of trading options and gives you the information you need to become a savvy options trader. So get your questions together, and use this step-by-step guidebook to develop option strategies that meet your investment objectives: hedging your stock market risk, increasing your portfolio income, or improving your trading results.



Derivatives and Hedge Funds

Author : Stephen Satchell

Publisher : Springer

Page : 416 pages

File Size : 11,77 MB

Release : 2016-05-18

Category : Science

ISBN : 1137554177

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Book Description

Over the last 20 years hedge funds and derivatives have fluctuated in reputational terms; they have been blamed for the global financial crisis and been praised for the provision of liquidity in troubled times. Both topics are rather under-researched due to a combination of data and secrecy issues. This book is a collection of papers celebrating 20 years of the Journal of Derivatives and Hedge Funds (JDHF). The 18 papers included in this volume represent a small sample of influential papers included during the life of the Journal, representing industry-orientated research in these areas. With a Preface from co-editor of the journal Stephen Satchell, the first part of the collection focuses on hedge funds and the second on markets, prices and products.



Options Trading Strategies

Author : Stock Market Guru

Publisher : Stock Market Guru

Page : 51 pages

File Size : 35,75 MB

Release :

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN :

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Book Description

Options Trading Strategies Options are great for novice and experienced investors, great for all investors who wish to expand their portfolios and make money in stock market.Learn profitable and powerful options trading strategies which will lower your risk and increase your profits in today's market. This book contains the following topics that will guide you through the path of Options Trading Strategy. Index Chapter 1 Introduction to Options Options defined The Importance of Learning Options The Difficult Side of Options Chapter 2a: Advantages of Options Trading Hedging and Speculation The Good and the Bad Sides of Options Trading Chapter 2b: Nature and Characteristics of Options Options Trading Parties What is Call Option? What is Put Option? The Variants of Option Option Trade Transacting versus Closing Out Option Pricing and How It is Done Chapter 3: Important Options Terms to Remember Strike Price Listed Option Premium Conversion Intrinsic Value Underlying Asset Chapter 4: Should I Buy Futures or Should I Buy Options? Buying Futures, Buying Options Buying Options: Short Term and Long Term Puts and Call – Buy Them but Don’t Sell Them Buying Puts How to Make Money when the Market is Falling Buying Puts for Surefire Gains Buying Calls Buying Calls to Profit From an Up Trend How to Profit when Buying Calls from a Bottoming Out Market Buying Futures Chapter 5: How to Trade F&Os in Several Market Conditions What It Means When You Buy in Wild Swings Buying When Risk Aversion is High Playing the Bull Market How to Play in the Bear Market Direction less Markets Playing Range Bound Markets Playing Intra day Moves Being a Compulsive Trader Trading a Falling Market Caused by Crazy Valuations Trading a Falling Market Caused by Negative News Trading a Rising Market Caused by Increasing Interest Selling Puts Amidst High Tendency of Risk Aversion Trading Accumulation and Distribution Chapter 6: Understanding the Golden Rules of F&O Trading Start by Having a Plan Each Single Stock is Not a Trade Don’t Buy a Mercedes if What You Can Afford is a Motorcycle! Set Your Trades to a Maximum Limit of Three at Any Single Time Don’t Trade Stocks That Have No Heavy Liquidity Trade According to the Trend The Value of Timing Trade the Body and not the Head of the Price Move Always Keep Track Of Your Emotions Learn the Value of Being Consistent and Disciplined Reality as Opposed to One’s Belief A Trade is Born out of Positive Expectation that is Backed by a Positive Trend Bread and Butter Money must be for Bread and Butter Alone Be Contrarian in Your Thinking and Not When You Go Trading Be Patient When You Find a Trade But Not When You Cut Losses Emotions versus F&O Trading The Value of Moderation in F&O Trading Having a Profit Then Going Out With a Loss When You Average a Loss in a Futures Position, You Are Simply Burning Money! Avoid Watching TV! The Unique Personality of Stock Futures and Options Getting Different Results Mean Doing Things Differently Trading Options Time Frame Buy Options in Low Cost/Premium Buy Options When a Stock, a Sector or the Market is Trending Very Strongly The Reality after Waking up from a Dream Open Interest – How Real Can It Be Understanding if the Option Price is Right So What is the Real Deal on Options Understanding How Options Really Work Calls and Puts Long and Short European and American Options Some Terminology Futures or Options?





The Information Content of Option Ratios

Author : Benjamin M. Blau

Publisher :

Page : 29 pages

File Size : 45,42 MB

Release : 2016

Category :

ISBN :

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Book Description

A broad stream of research shows that information flows into underlying stock prices through the options market. For instance, prior research shows that both the Put-Call Ratio (P/C) and the Option-to-Stock Volume Ratio (O/S) predict negative future stock returns. In this paper, we compare the level of information contained in these two commonly used option volume ratios. Our comparison of the return predictability contained in these ratios yields some new results. First, we find that P/C ratios contain more predictability about future stock returns at the daily level than O/S ratios. Second, in contrast to our first set of results, O/S ratios contain more predictability about future returns at the weekly and monthly levels than P/C ratios. In fact, our tests show that while P/C ratios contain predictability about future daily returns and, to some extent, future weekly returns, the return predictability in P/C ratios is fleeting. O/S ratios, on the other hand, significantly predict negative returns at both the weekly and monthly levels, respectively.



Essays on Single-Stock Futures and Options Markets

Author : Cuyler Lawrence Strong

Publisher :

Page : 141 pages

File Size : 43,62 MB

Release : 2020

Category : Options (Finance)

ISBN :

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Book Description

These two essays demonstrate the important role that derivative markets play in assimilating information into financial markets. In the first essay I use the 2008 short-selling ban to examine the impact of single-stock futures (SSFs) trading on options market quality. I show that there is a substitution effect between options trading and SSFs trading during the ban period. In addition, my results show that SSFs trading had a significant effect in narrowing the bid-ask spreads of options contracts. Moreover, compared to stocks without SSFs, stocks with SSFs were less likely to violate put-call parity during the ban period. My results suggest that SSFs trading helps mitigate the negative effect of the short-selling ban on options market quality documented in the literature.In the second essay I look at information flows through large option trades. The motivation comes from CNBC's "Halftime Report" which regularly covers unusual option activity, i.e., those abnormally large trades, and recommend investors to follow the "smart money". I investigate the impact of the CNBC coverage on underlying stock prices and whether investors can indeed profit by following the "smart money". I document an immediate spike in trading volume and abnormal returns at the time of the CNBC coverage, and evidence that the unusual option trades are informative of stock prices around the coverage. However, I also document a significant reversal in underlying stock prices following the CNBC coverage. Using the same criteria advocated by the CNBC commentators, I identify unusual option activities for a large sample of stocks without CNBC coverage. I confirm that the unusual option trades significantly predict underlying stock returns, but find no evidence of reversal in underlying stock prices. My findings suggest that the CNBC coverage of unusual option activity has a destabilizing effect on underlying stock prices and investors cannot profit by simply following the CNBC reporting on the "smart money".