Book Description

Far too much of the analysis of Iran's search for nuclear weapons treats it in terms of arms control or focuses on the potential threat to Israel. In reality, Iran's mix of asymmetric warfare, conventional warfare, and conventionally armed missile forces have critical weaknesses that make Iran anything but the hegemon of the Gulf. Iran's public focus on Israel also disguises the reality that its primary strategic focus is to deter and intimidate its Gulf neighbors and the United States, not Israel. It has made major progress in creating naval forces for asymmetric warfare and developing naval missiles, but it has very limited air-sea and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (IS&R) capabilities. It lacks modern conventional land, air, air defense and sea power, has fallen far behind the Arab Gulf states in modern aircraft and ships, and its land forces are filled with obsolete and mediocre weapons that lack maneuver capability and sustainability outside Iran. Iran needs nuclear weapons to offset these facts. Iran's Al Quds forces and efforts to build up regional forces like the Hezbollah have been highly effective, but it lacks any real amphibious capability force for entry. It is able to spend far less on military forces than the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and only a fraction of what they can spend on arms imports. It has large numbers of short range rockets and growing missile forces, but these lack the accuracy and lethality to pose a major threat to any Gulf state but Kuwait, and Iran is far weaker in every warfighting dimension than a combination of U.S. and GCC forces. Nuclear weapons change this situation to an important degree. Nuclear armed missile forces pose a major threat to every Gulf state, even if they have missile defenses. Many have only one major population center and all have critically vulnerable facilities. All, along with the United States, will have to be far more cautious in escalating to major attacks on Iran if it uses its asymmetric forces and pay far more attention to Iranian threats and efforts at intimidation.