The Menace of Fiscal QE


Book Description

In his brief but systematic study, George Selgin reviews the movement favoring fiscal QE, shows how it threatens both the Fed's independence and democratic control of government spending, and counters claims that it offers a low-cost means for financing such spending.




Floored!


Book Description

In October 2008, as the U.S. economy plunged, the Federal Reserve began paying interest on banks' reserve balances. The resulting switch to a "floor system" of monetary control, in which changes in the interest rate on reserves, rather than reserve creation or destruction, became the Fed's chief tool for influencing economic activity, was to have far-reaching consequences--almost all of them regrettable. Besides intensifying the downturn by causing banks to hoard reserves, the floor system all but destroyed the market for unsecured interbank loans that had been banks' ordinary "first resort" source of last-minute liquidity. By depriving the Fed's asset purchases of the ability to stimulate investment and spending, it also compelled the Fed to compensate by purchasing assets on an unprecedented scale. All of this resulted in a substantial increase in the Fed's role in allocating scarce credit. Finally, by severing the ordinary connection between the stance of monetary policy and the extent of the Fed's asset holdings, the floor system risks turning the Fed's balance sheet into a fiscal-policy playground. Floored! offers a matchless account of our post-crisis monetary system's history and shortcomings.




Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012


Book Description

The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.




Anatomy of the Crash


Book Description

The Great Crash of 2020 was not caused by a virus. It was precipitated by the virus, and made worse by the crazed decision of governments around the world to shut down business and travel. But it was caused by economic fragility. The purpose of this collection is to highlight the important work of contemporary Austrian economists on the modern financial system. Although the mainstream financial press has been crediting American, European, and Chinese policymakers with upholding the global economy in the aftermath of 2008, Austrians have long been warning that these very same actions have only set the world up for a larger disaster. Promises in 2008 of the ease of normalizing monetary policy—such as by reducing balance sheets and phasing out market intervention—have been proven to be lies, just as Austrians warned. Authors Include: Ryan McMaken, Daniel Lacalle, Brendan Brown, Thorsten Polleit, Alasdair Macleod, Philipp Bagus, Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Mark J. Valek, Arkadiusz Sieroń, Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Jeff Deist, Joseph T. Salerno, and Claudio Grass.




Fiscal Hangover


Book Description

The rules of making money have changed-forever With the collapse of investment banks, trillion-dollar-plus government bailouts, and the Dow plunging like a rock, it's never been more important to understand-and actually profit from-the "new rules." Fact is, Fiscal Hangover, will give you an investing blueprint that will allow you to profit from the changing global economy. For the first time in 200 years, American consumers are stepping down from their position as the driving force behind the world's economy. In Fiscal Hangover, Keith Fitz-Gerald analyzes the declining power of the American consumer and introduces you to the resulting investment opportunities. Without question, the American consumer and the United States government have provided the rest of the world with liquidity in the form of cheap capital and abundant debt. But in light of recent economic events, the rules of the game have changed and that means you must change with them-if you intend on securing your financial future. Unlike most of today's finance books that simply examine the end of the American Empire, Fiscal Hangover shows you how to prepare for the fall, effectively allocate your investments, and thrive in the new global economy. This book offers specific analysis and concrete actionable steps for individual investors interested in grabbing their fair share of what will be the greatest wealth creation in the history of mankind. Examines our current financial situation and offers practical investment advice to overcome the challenges you'll face Analyzes the declining power of the American consumer and introduces you to the resulting investment opportunities Details new investing benchmarks and discusses why the old ones no longer work Explores big picture economic issues that will affect your individual investment endeavors The coming years may hold the greatest investment opportunities of our times, but in order to take advantage of this you'll need the insights that can only be found in Fiscal Hangover.




The American Economy


Book Description

Each year, 25% of the world's output is produced by less than 5% of the planet's population. The juxtaposition of these two figures gives an idea of the power of the American economy. Not only is it the most productive among the major developed economies, but it is also a place where new products, services and production methods are constantly being invented. Even so, for all its efficiency and its capacity for innovation, the United States is progressively manifesting worrying signs of dysfunction. Since the 1970s, the American economy has experienced increasing difficulty in generating social progress. Worse still, over the past twenty years, signs of actual regression are becoming more and more numerous. How can this paradox be explained? Answering this question is the thread running throughout the chapters of this book. Anton Brender and Florence Pisani, economists with Candriam Investors Group, offer the reader an overview of the history and structure of the American economy, guided by a concern to shed light on the problems it faces today.




The Money Makers


Book Description

Shortly after arriving in the White House in early 1933, Franklin Roosevelt took the United States off the gold standard. His opponents thought his decision unwise at best, and ruinous at worst. But they could not have been more wrong. With The Money Makers, Eric Rauchway tells the absorbing story of how FDR and his advisors pulled the levers of monetary policy to save the domestic economy and propel the United States to unprecedented prosperity and superpower status. Drawing on the ideas of the brilliant British economist John Maynard Keynes, among others, Roosevelt created the conditions for recovery from the Great Depression, deploying economic policy to fight the biggest threat then facing the nation: deflation. Throughout the 1930s, he also had one eye on the increasingly dire situation in Europe. In order to defeat Hitler, Roosevelt turned again to monetary policy, sending dollars abroad to prop up the faltering economies of Britain and, beginning in 1941, the Soviet Union. FDR's fight against economic depression and his fight against fascism were indistinguishable. As Rauchway writes, "Roosevelt wanted to ensure more than business recovery; he wanted to restore American economic and moral strength so the US could defend civilization itself." The economic and military alliance he created proved unbeatable-and also provided the foundation for decades of postwar prosperity. Indeed, Rauchway argues that Roosevelt's greatest legacy was his monetary policy. Even today, the "Roosevelt dollar" remains both the symbol and the catalyst of America's vast economic power. The Money Makers restores the Roosevelt dollar to its central place in our understanding of FDR, the New Deal, and the economic history of twentieth-century America. We forget this history at our own peril. In revealing the roots of our postwar prosperity, Rauchway shows how we can recapture the abundance of that period in our own.




Money, Finance, and the Real Economy


Book Description

Money matters... but so does finance Starting with the link between money and economic activity, this study shows how today's financial systems have shaped the way that monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy. The information gathering and decisionmaking processes within the financial system play a key role in determining both how credit is allocated and how the risks implied by credit are borne. The study points to what went wrong during the credit boom of the 2000s, which was the counterpart to a huge accumulation of savings, concentrated mainly in emerging economies. This accumulation could well continue. Making better use of the coming savings is a challenge that authorities will have to meet if they want finance to better serve the real economy.




Modern Political Economics


Book Description

Once in a while the world astonishes itself. Anxious incredulity replaces intellectual torpor and a puzzled public strains its antennae in every possible direction, desperately seeking explanations for the causes and nature of what just hit it. 2008 was such a moment. Not only did the financial system collapse, and send the real economy into a tailspin, but it also revealed the great gulf separating economics from a very real capitalism. Modern Political Economics has a single aim: To help readers make sense of how 2008 came about and what the post-2008 world has in store. The book is divided into two parts. The first part delves into every major economic theory, from Aristotle to the present, with a determination to discover clues of what went wrong in 2008. The main finding is that all economic theory is inherently flawed. Any system of ideas whose purpose is to describe capitalism in mathematical or engineering terms leads to inevitable logical inconsistency; an inherent error that stands between us and a decent grasp of capitalist reality. The only scientific truth about capitalism is its radical indeterminacy, a condition which makes it impossible to use science's tools (e.g. calculus and statistics) to second-guess it. The second part casts an attentive eye on the post-war era; on the breeding ground of the Crash of 2008. It distinguishes between two major post-war phases: The Global Plan (1947-1971) and the Global Minotaur (1971-2008). This dynamic new book delves into every major economic theory and maps out meticulously the trajectory that global capitalism followed from post-war almost centrally planned stability, to designed disintegration in the 1970s, to an intentional magnification of unsustainable imbalances in the 1980s and, finally, to the most spectacular privatisation of money in the 1990s and beyond. Modern Political Economics is essential reading for Economics students and anyone seeking a better understanding of the 2008 economic crash.




Currency Wars


Book Description

In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon. Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008. Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict. As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself. Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas. While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.