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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Cyclicality of Marginal Cost

Author : Sandeep Mazumder

Publisher :

Page : pages

File Size : 40,70 MB

Release : 2010

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Book Description

Several authors have argued that if the labor share of income is used as the proxy for real marginal cost, then the sticky-price version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve does a good job of approximating US inflation dynamics. However, this paper argues that the labor share is an inappropriate measure of real marginal cost for two reasons: it is countercyclical whereas theory predicts marginal cost should be procyclical, and it assumes that labor can be costlessly adjusted at a fixed real wage rate. Relaxing this assumption to a more realistic one leads to a measure of marginal cost that is markedly procyclical. Testing this improved measure of marginal cost then produces results that are contradictory to the entire underlying model of the NKPC. Thus I conclude that the NKPC fails to give a sound explanation of inflation dynamics.



Is There a Phillips Curve? A Full Information Partial Equilibrium Approach

Author : Mr.Roberto Piazza

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 59 pages

File Size : 35,23 MB

Release : 2018-03-09

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484345207

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Book Description

Empirical tests of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve have provided results often inconsistent with microeconomic evidence. To overcome the pitfalls of standard estimations on aggregate data, a Full Information Partial Equilibrium approach is developed to exploit sectoral level data. A model featuring sectoral NKPCs subject to a rich set of shocks is constructed. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the structural parameters are provided to allow sectoral idiosyncratic components to be linearly extracted. Estimation biases are corrected using the model's restrictions on the partial equilibrium propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. An application to the US, Japan and the UK rejects the purely forward looking, labor cost-based NKPC.



The 'new Keynesian' Phillips Curve

Author : Assaf Razin

Publisher :

Page : 28 pages

File Size : 40,24 MB

Release : 2001

Category : Capital market

ISBN :

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The paper extends Woodford's (2000) analysis of the closed economy Phillips curve to an open economy with both commodity trade and capital mobility. We show that consumption smoothing, which comes with the opening of the capital market, raises the degree of strategic complementarity among monopolistically competitive suppliers, thus rendering prices more sticky and magnifying output responses to nominal GDP shocks.



The New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Author : Paolo Guarda

Publisher :

Page : 0 pages

File Size : 24,11 MB

Release : 2020

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The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) differs from the conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve in that it is forward-looking and links inflation to a measure of marginal cost instead of unemployment or the output gap. More fundamentally, the NPC is derived from New Keynesian models that combine nominal rigidities with individual optimising behaviour and model-consistent (rational) expectations. Because the NPC is grounded in micro-theory (unlike the conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve), it is robust to some forms of the Lucas critique and may serve to analyse the impact structural changes such as increased price flexibility may have on inflation. New Keynesian Phillips curve estimates for Luxembourg using the Galí and Gertler (1999) hybrid form suggest that firms change prices often but tend to use backward-looking rules-of-thumb instead of resetting prices optimally using forward-looking expectations. In terms of policy implications, although the results suggest prices in Luxembourg are relatively flexible, the prevalence of backward-looking price setting implies greater inflation persistence and a higher sacrifice ratio attached to disinflationary monetary policy. From the perspective of individual firms, backward-looking price setting may be a rational response in a very small open economy because of its vulnerability to external shocks. Small size and openness plausibly imply higher costs of collecting information and lower benefits from optimal price setting.



Unconventional Policy Instruments in the New Keynesian Model

Author : Zineddine Alla

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 34 pages

File Size : 41,56 MB

Release : 2016-03-10

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1513573071

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Book Description

This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the ‘divine coincidence’ breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker’s preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument can help reduce the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing not to use the second instrument may be welfare improving (a result akin to Rogoff (1985a) example of counterproductive coordination). We further show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation, and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument. As long as price setting depends on expectations about the future, there are gains from establishing credibility by using any instrument that affects these expectations.



Imperfect Competition and Sticky Prices

Author : N. Gregory Mankiw

Publisher : MIT Press

Page : 448 pages

File Size : 50,91 MB

Release : 1991

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 9780262631334

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Book Description

These two volumes bring together a set of important essays that represent a "new Keynesian" perspective in economics today. This recent work shows how the Keynesian approach to economic fluctuations can be supported by rigorous microeconomic models of economic behavior. The essays are grouped in seven parts that cover costly price adjustment, staggering of wages and prices, imperfect competition, coordination failures, and the markets for labor, credit, and goods. An overall introduction, brief introductions to each of the parts, and a bibliography of additional papers in the field round out this valuable collection.Volume 1 focuses on how friction in price setting at the microeconomic level leads to nominal rigidity at the macroeconomic level, and on the macroeconomic consequences of imperfect competition, including aggregate demand externalities and multipliers. Volume 2 addresses recent research on non-Walrasian features of the labor, credit, and goods markets. Contributors George A Akerlof, Costas Azariadis, Laurence Ball, Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Bits, Olivier J. Blanchard, Alan S. Blinder, John Bryant, Andrew S. Caplin, Dennis W. Carlton, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Russell Cooper, Peter A. Diamond, Gary Fethke, Stanley Fischer, Robert E. Hall, Oliver Hart, Andrew John, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, Alan B. Krueger, David M. Lilien, Ian M. McDonald, N. David Mankiw, Arthur M. Okun, Andres Policano, David Romer, Julio J. Rotemberg, Garth Saloner, Carl Shapiro, Andrei Shleifer, Robert M. Solow, Daniel F. Spulber, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Lawrence H. Summers, John Taylor, Andrew Weiss, Michael Woodford, Janet L. Yellen



The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy

Author : Syed Kanwar Abbas

Publisher :

Page : 0 pages

File Size : 17,17 MB

Release : 2016

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ISBN :

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Book Description

This study estimates the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) of Gali and Monacelli for a small open economy using Australian data. Our detailed investigation hinges on estimating the structural parameters in five different variants of the Gali-Monacelli NKPC, which relates the inflation process to terms of trade and the real exchange rate; the marginal cost and output gap as proxies for real economic activity and the hybrid version incorporating both forward- and backward-looking inflation expectations. The analysis and extensive robustness checks overwhelmingly establish that the Gali-Monacelli NKPC cannot explain the dynamics of inflation and is rejected by the Australian data.





The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations

Author : Timo Wollmershaeuser

Publisher :

Page : 41 pages

File Size : 11,28 MB

Release : 2013

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Book Description

We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is the Ifo World Economic Survey, which quarterly polls economic experts about the expected future development of inflation. Our main findings are as follows: (i) In comparison with the rational expectations approach, backward-looking behaviour turns out to be more relevant for most countries in our sample. (ii) The use of survey data for inflation expectations yields a positive slope of the Phillips curve when the output gap is used as a measure for marginal cost.



Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy

Author : Karolina Holmberg

Publisher :

Page : 27 pages

File Size : 13,44 MB

Release : 2006

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ISBN :

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Book Description

In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper, a marginal-cost based New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on Swedish data by means of GMM and Full Information Maximum Likelihood. The results show that with real marginal cost in the structural equation the point estimates generally have the exptected positive sign, which is less frequently the case using the output gap in the Phillips curve equation. This suggests that real marginal cost might be a more adequate real explanatory variable for Swedish inflation than the output gap. However, standard errors in the estimations are large and it is in fact difficult to pin down a statistically significant relationship between either real marginal cost or the output gap and inflation.