The Outlook for Primary Commodities


Book Description

This paper examines the short- and medium-term price and trade outlook for the primary commodities that are of special interest to developing countries. It is the result of an in-depth review of market prospects for primary commodities. It provides an overview of the macro-economic assumptions which were taken as a basis for the forecasts, a summary of the main results of the forecasts and a discussion of some of the key implications of the forecast exercise and policy issues that arise from the analysis. Specifically, Part I - Price and Trade Outlook is addressed covering: commodity markets in 1981-82; the short-term price outlook: 1982-83, the long-term price outlook for non-fuel commodities: 1990-95; qualifications of the long-term outlook for energy prices; and the long-term outlook for non-fuel commodity consumption, trade and developing countries' export revenues. Part II deals with the Implications and Issues and discusses: production growth in food crops - a comparative analysis; investment requirements in the non-fuel mineral industry 1980-95; commodities in world trade global and regional implications of the price and trade volume forecasts; international commodity agreements; agricultural protectionism and import penetration by developing countries.







The outlook for key commodities


Book Description




Living in a Material World


Book Description

At a time when the world is grappling with rising food and energy prices and climate change, Living in a Material World provides an insight into some of the contributing factors behind these challenges. The emergence of new consumers in China, India, Russia and the Middle East has added formidable competition to the natural resources that have been taken for granted in the developed world. Everything we consume involves the use of metals, fossil fuels or agriculture. Our high tech 'lifestyles' depend on the secure supply of these raw materials which we take from planet earth and use to make our lives more comfortable, more productive or more manageable. The effect of this increasing global demand for commodities has pushed up prices of materials from oil and copper to corn and wheat; forcing consumers to pay more for the many 'necessities' of life, from a loaf of bread to electricity bills. Since the commodity boom has unfolded, commodities have gone from the back page of the newspaper to the front; with more and more headlines about record food and oil prices, dire climate change warnings, energy security and China's demand for more raw materials. This era of high oil and food prices is no passing phase: The supply of many key natural resources is stretched to the limit. But what is the real cost? Living in a Material World makes the link between raw materials and the consumer, and shows how they are relevant to everybody, everyday - now more so than at any time since the last oil shock nearly three decades ago. A unique insight into this 'once in a generation' boom, the book shows how the increasing value of commodities is impacting on consumers and investors, in ways we are only just beginning to understand. "It was a great pleasure to read this book which provides an essential background to understanding commodities for anybody interested in understanding them more closely. It is so rare to see all the essential elements brought together in one book." –Chris Brodie, Krom River Partners LLP "Kevin Morrison set out to write a book about the daily relevance that raw materials have for the ordinary consumer. He has achieved his objective par excellence. The subject matter has been comprehensively researched and well documented - yet the writer has avoided using complicated technical language. The style of the book is more in tune with a novel and the main topics are treated with a special sense of humour. I would readily recommend this work to anyone interested in how global energy issues have a direct affect on us all." –Mehdi Varzi, President, Varzi Energy, London







Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022


Book Description

The war in Ukraine has caused major supply disruptions and led to historically higher prices for a number of commodities. Most commodity prices are now expected to see sharp increases in 2022 and remain high in the medium term. The price of Brent crude oil is projected to average $100/bbl in 2022, a 40 percent increase from 2021. Non-energy prices are expected to rise by about 20 percent in 2022, with the largest increases in commodities where Russia or Ukraine are key exporters. Wheat prices in particular are forecast to increase more than 40 percent this year. While price pressures are expected to ease in 2023, commodity prices will remain much higher than previously expected. The outlook depends on the duration of the war and the severity of disruptions to commodity flows. A Special Focus section investigates the impact of the war on commodity markets and compares the current episode with previous price spikes. It finds that previous oil price spikes led to the emergence of new sources of supplies and reduced demand in response to efficiency improvements and substitution to other commodities. In the case of food, new land was made available for food production. For policymakers, a short-term priority is providing targeted support to poorer households facing higher food and energy prices. For longer-lasting solutions, they facilitate investment in new sources of zero-carbon energy.










Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World


Book Description

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.




Guide to Commodities


Book Description

A gold mine of information, insights and powerful tools to help you win big in today's commodities markets The recent fortunes made by investors in rare earth metals and gold are just two shining examples of what an extremely profitable investment class commodities can be. But with radical swings in price volatility (think oil) and the vagaries of global geopolitics, commodities also can be one of the trickiest arenas in which to play. Written by the Senior Commodities Editor for The Economist Intelligence Unit, this book provides you with a comprehensive, highly practical look at the commodities markets. In addition to covering major trends and key changes in the markets, both past and present, it supplies you with proven tools for analyzing and taking full advantage of this ever-changing asset class. Focuses specifically on natural commodities classes, such as natural resources and raw materials, both mineral and agricultural Explores trends in the consumption and production of the commodities in question as well as the changing markets for those goods Describes how commodities prices have changed historically and in recent years and how they are likely to change in future Arms investors with an array valuable tools for analyzing market movements, timing trades and tracking and predicting price volatility