The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy


Book Description

We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a model in which realistic heterogeneity in price rigidity interacts with heterogeneity in sectoral size and input-output linkages, and derive conditions under which these heterogeneities generate large real effects. Empirically, heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment is the most important driver behind large real effects, whereas heterogeneity in input-output linkages contributes only marginally, with differences in consumption shares in between. Heterogeneity in price rigidity further is key in determining which sectors are the most important contributors to the transmission of monetary shocks, and is necessary but not sufficient to generate realistic output correlations. In the model and data, reducing the number of sectors decreases monetary non-neutrality with a similar impact response of inflation. Hence, the initial response of inflation to monetary shocks is not sufficient to discriminate across models and for the real effects of nominal shocks.




The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shock in a Heterogeneous Production Economy


Book Description

We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a model in which realistic heterogeneity in price rigidity interacts with heterogeneity in sectoral size and input-output linkages, and derive conditions under which these heterogeneities generate large real effects. Empirically, heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment is the most important driver behind large real effects, whereas heterogeneity in input-output linkages contributes only marginally, with differences in consumption shares in between. Heterogeneity in price rigidity further is key in determining which sectors are the most important contributors to the transmission of monetary shocks, and is necessary but not sufficient to generate realistic output correlations. In the model and data, reducing the number of sectors decreases monetary non-neutrality with a similar impact response of inflation. Hence, the initial response of inflation to monetary shocks is not sufficient to discriminate across models and for the real effects of nominal shocks.




Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies


Book Description

Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.




Monetary Policy Through Production Networks


Book Description

Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on stock returns in narrow windows around press releases by the Federal Reserve. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct effect and an indirect (network) effect. We attribute 50%-85% of the overall effect to indirect effects. The decomposition is a robust feature of the data and we confirm large indirect effects in realized cash-flow fundamentals. A simple model with intermediate inputs guides our empirical strategy. Our findings indicate that production networks might be an important propagation mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy.




The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy


Book Description

We propose a supply-side channel for the transmission of monetary policy. We study an economy with heterogeneous firms, sticky prices, and endogenous markups. We show that if, as is consistent with the empirical evidence, bigger firms have higher markups and lower pass-throughs than smaller firms, then a monetary easing endogenously increases aggregate TFP and improves allocative efficiency. This endogenous positive "supply shock" amplifies the effects of the positive "demand shock" on output and employment. The result is a flattening of the Phillips curve. This effect is distinct from another mechanism discussed at length in the real rigidities literature: a monetary easing leads to a reduction in desired markups because of strategic complementarities in pricing. We calibrate the model to match firm-level pass-throughs and find that the misallocation channel of monetary policy is quantitatively important, flattening the Phillips curve by about 70% compared to a model with no supply-side effects. We derive a tractable four-equation dynamic model and show that monetary easing generates a procyclical hump-shaped response in aggregate TFP and countercyclical dispersion in firm-level TFPR. The improvements in allocative efficiency amplify both the impact and persistence of interest rate shocks on output.




Handbook of Macroeconomics


Book Description

This text aims to provide a survey of the state of knowledge in the broad area that includes the theories and facts of economic growth and economic fluctuations, as well as the consequences of monetary and fiscal policies for general economic conditions.







Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations


Book Description

Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.




Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations


Book Description

In this paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We decompose this indicator, which we refer to as 'the gap', into two constituent parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the latter accounts for the bulk of the fluctuations in our gap measure. Finally, we derive a measure of the welfare costs of business cycles that is directly related to our gap variable, and which takes into account explicitly the existence of a varying aggregate inefficiency. When applied to postwar U.S. data, for plausible parametrizations, our measure suggests welfare losses of fluctuations that are of a higher order of magnitude than those derived by Lucas (1987). It also suggests that the major postwar recessions involved substantial efficiency costs.