Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates


Book Description

The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.




The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy


Book Description

In The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy, Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and Amit Seru bring together discussions and presentations from the Hoover Institution's annual monetary policy conference. The conference participants discuss long-run monetary issues facing the world economy, with an emphasis on deep, unresolved structural questions. They explore vital issues affecting the Federal Reserve, the United States' central bank. They voice concern over the Fed's independence, governance, and ability to withstand future shocks and analyze the effects of its monetary policies and growing balance sheet in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The authors ask a range of questions that get to the heart of twenty-first-century monetary policy. What should the role of the Fed be? Which policies and strategies will mitigate the risks of the next crisis and at the same time spur innovation and job creation? How can new technology make the Fed's payment system safer, faster, and more efficient? What does the emergence of crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin mean for competition and stability? How can the Fed defend itself against exploitation and politicization? Finally they propose reforms to ensure that the Fed will remain independent, stable, strong, and resilient in an unpredictable world.




Shadow Banking


Book Description

This note outlines the basic economics of the shadow banking system, highlights (systemic) risks related to it, and suggests implications for measurement and regulatory approaches.




The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions


Book Description

Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.




The Theory of Interest


Book Description

This book contains a critical analysis of the main theories of interest which have been published since B÷hm-Bawerk. The last part of the book gives an account of the author's own theory.The first part, which deals with the history of doctrines, discusses the theories of B÷hm-Bawerk, Wicksell, Akerman, and Hayek, authors who proceed from the assumption of stationary state.The second group of authors consists of Walras, Irving Fisher, and F. H. Knight, who assume a progressive economy in which net saving and investment occur.The third group of authors are those who stress the monetary factor. The central figure of this part is Keynes; but other authors, among them Patinkin, are also dealt with. The theories on the term structure of interest rates are discussed in the last part of the history of doctrines. The author's own theory deals with the problem of the interest rate first in terms of partial equilibrium analysis, whereby particular attention is paid to the influence of the banking system on the structure of interest rates.In the final chapter the author proceeds to expound the interest theory in the framework of general equilibrium analysis. A mathematical appendix concludes this book.Friedrich A. Lutz (1901-1975) taught economics at Princeton University for fifteen years before becoming Professor of Economics at the University of Zurich. He was also the president of the Mont Pelerin Society from 1964-1967.




Debt Maturity and the Use of Short-Term Debt


Book Description

The maturity structure of debt can have financial and real consequences. Short-term debt exposes borrowers to rollover risk (where the terms of financing are renegotiated to the detriment of the borrower) and is associated with financial crises. Moreover, debt maturity can have an impact on the ability of firms to undertake long-term productive investments and, as a result, affect economic activity. The aim of this paper is to examine the evolution and determinants of debt maturity and to characterize differences across countries.







Negative Interest Rates


Book Description

This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.




Investment under Uncertainty


Book Description

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.




Policy Uncertainty in Japan


Book Description

We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.