The Status of World Oil Reserves and Implications for the Gulf


Book Description

For decades, experts have been debating the timing of a peak in the discovery and production of conventional oil reserves. In 1998, geologist Colin Campbell predicted that global production of conventional oil would begin to decline within ten years. His forecast, commonly referred to as Peak Oil, was endorsed and elaborated by many respected geologists and commentators. At the heart of most predictions of peak oil is a prediction made by Marion King Hubbert in 1956. In the mid-1950s, Hubbert used a curve-fitting technique to correctly predict that US oil production would peak by 1970. The so-called Hubbert curve is now widely used in the analysis of peaking production of conventional petroleum. “Peak oil” is the term used today to describe the situation where the rate of oil production reaches its absolute maximum and begins to decline. We suggest further that artificial and geopolitical barriers to resource exploitation in the Middle East, by creating a temporary scarcity premium, has hastened technological innovation in unconventional resources at a time when resource abundance still remains a strong feature of the world energy market. Moreover, the higher oil prices rise and the longer they remain high, the faster the pace of technology development and substitution will be, irrespective of the stage of depletion world oil markets are experiencing. Thus, rather than reap ever higher returns for their remaining conventional resources, Middle East producers may find themselves facing increasing competition for market share with unconventional supplies of oil from Canadian oil sands, North American shale oil, shale gas, and liquids converted from natural gas supplied at prices that are driven by technological innovation rather than depletion curves. At the same time, temporary price spikes have encouraged oil consuming countries to adopt energy efficiency measures that will curb the long-term growth in global oil demand, potentially delaying the timeframe when actual depletion may benefit the Middle East, if it comes at all.




The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region


Book Description

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.




Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices


Book Description

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.




The Changing Energy Landscape in the Gulf


Book Description

Extreme fluctuations in oil prices (such as the dramatic fall from mid-2014 into 2015) raise important strategic questions for both importers and exporters. In this volume, specialists from the US, the Middle East, Europe and Asia examine the rapidly evolving dynamic in the energy landscape, including renewable and nuclear power, challenges to producers including the shale revolution, and legal issues._x000B_Each chapter provides in-depth analysis and clear policy recommendations.




Oil and Politics in the Gulf of Guinea


Book Description

This book investigates the paradox at the heart of present-day Gulf of Guinea politics. The governance crisis festering throughout every one of the region's states ought to discourage outsiders from capital-intensive, long-term commercial involvement and cast doubts over the political survival of ruling cliques. However, the presence of large petroleum deposits radically changes this equation: the negative dynamics of state failure and widespread violence affect the general population but spare the oil nexus. The material and political resources made available by oil allow states to survive regardless of bad policies, facilitate their governing elites' material success regardless of reckless management, earn international allies regardless of erratic domestic conduct, and make companies want to invest regardless of risk. The recent oil boom only strengthens this paradoxical viability. Making possible what is arguably the largest inflow of resources into Africa in history, it is of a different order from the short-term viability afforded by the exploitation of other natural resources. Nonetheless, the partnership between insiders and outsiders that permits the extraction of oil is not conducive to positive long-term outcomes in institution-building or broad-based economic growth. Highly dependent on uninterrupted money flows and beset by various destabilising trends, the political economy of oil in the Gulf of Guinea is poised in a state of 'permanent crisis'. This study, based on extensive fieldwork, interviews and engagement with primary and secondary sources, is the first on the subject to take on the regional, as opposed to the country-specific, dimension. It has four key aims. The first is to bring out the extent to which oil has forged the interaction of the region with the world economy and how the ongoing expansion of the oil sector will deepen this pivotal role. Secondly, how this international relevance of petroleum has shaped postcolonial domestic politics and institutions. Thirdly, it examines the interests of different sets of empowered actors in the partnership between importers, producers and oil companies, their interplay, and the manner and contexts in which their goals diverge or converge. Finally, it analyses the sources of long-term sustainability of the political economy of oil in the Gulf of Guinea amidst seemingly unmanageable chaos.







Blind Spot


Book Description

A critical examination of the history of US-Palestinian relations The United States has invested billions of dollars and countless diplomatic hours in the pursuit of Israeli-Palestinian peace and a two-state solution. Yet American attempts to broker an end to the conflict have repeatedly come up short. At the center of these failures lay two critical factors: Israeli power and Palestinian politics. While both Israelis and Palestinians undoubtedly share much of the blame, one also cannot escape the role of the United States, as the sole mediator in the process, in these repeated failures. American peacemaking efforts ultimately ran aground as a result of Washington’s unwillingness to confront Israel’s ever-deepening occupation or to come to grips with the realities of internal Palestinian politics. In particular, the book looks at the interplay between the U.S.-led peace process and internal Palestinian politics—namely, how a badly flawed peace process helped to weaken Palestinian leaders and institutions and how an increasingly dysfunctional Palestinian leadership, in turn, hindered prospects for a diplomatic resolution. Thus, while the peace process was not necessarily doomed to fail, Washington’s management of the process, with its built-in blind spot to Israeli power and Palestinian politics, made failure far more likely than a negotiated breakthrough. Shaped by the pressures of American domestic politics and the special relationship with Israel, Washington’s distinctive “blind spot” to Israeli power and Palestinian politics has deep historical roots, dating back to the 1917 Balfour Declaration and the British Mandate. The size of the blind spot has varied over the years and from one administration to another, but it is always present.




Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead


Book Description

Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.




Oil in the Sea III


Book Description

Since the early 1970s, experts have recognized that petroleum pollutants were being discharged in marine waters worldwide, from oil spills, vessel operations, and land-based sources. Public attention to oil spills has forced improvements. Still, a considerable amount of oil is discharged yearly into sensitive coastal environments. Oil in the Sea provides the best available estimate of oil pollutant discharge into marine waters, including an evaluation of the methods for assessing petroleum load and a discussion about the concerns these loads represent. Featuring close-up looks at the Exxon Valdez spill and other notable events, the book identifies important research questions and makes recommendations for better analysis ofâ€"and more effective measures againstâ€"pollutant discharge. The book discusses: Inputâ€"where the discharges come from, including the role of two-stroke engines used on recreational craft. Behavior or fateâ€"how oil is affected by processes such as evaporation as it moves through the marine environment. Effectsâ€"what we know about the effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine organisms and ecosystems. Providing a needed update on a problem of international importance, this book will be of interest to energy policy makers, industry officials and managers, engineers and researchers, and advocates for the marine environment.




The Economic Consequences of the Gulf War


Book Description

The Iran-Iraq War were one of the longest and most devastating uninterrupted wars amongst modern nation states. It produced neither victor nor vanquished and left the regimes in both countries basically intact. However, it is clear that the domestic, regional and international repercussions of the war mean that 'going back' is not an option. Iraq owes too much to regain the lead it formerly held in economic performance and development levels. What then does reconstruction mean? In this book, Kamran Mofid counteracts the scant analysis to date of the economic consequences of the Gulf War by analysing its impact on both economies in terms of oil production, exports, foreign exchange earnings, non-defence foreign trade and agricultural performance. In the final section, Mofid brings together the component parts of the economic cost of the war to assign a dollar value to the devastation.