Trade Adjustment Costs in Developing Countries


Book Description

This book summarizes the state of knowledge in the economic literature on trade and development regarding the costs of adjustment to trade openness and how adjustment takes place in developing countries. The contributions by leading experts look at: *the magnitude of trade adjustment costs in the presence of frictions in factor markets; *the impacts of trade shocks and greater trade openness; *the factors that affect the way trade, especially exports, adjust; *trade adjustment assistance programs in the U.S. and compensation schemes for farmers in the EU. The book will be relevant to academics, students, policy-makers and trade practitioners alike. Too often, policymakers avoid more open trade because they fear the adjustment costs, while proponents of such open trade overlook or dismiss them. This comprehensive set of papers takes these costs seriously and helps us appreciate where both sides go wrong. It provides an extremely useful survey of what we know and what we still need to know if the benefits from trade are to be more widespread within developing countries --Robert Lawrence, Albert L Williams Professor of International Trade Harvard Kennedy School.Trade expansion generates huge potential gains to developing countries, but it may also produce pains to specific socio-economic groups. This volume by world-renowned trade and labour experts offers the first comprehensive assessment of how trade adjustment takes place in developing countries, what its costs are and how policy can help mitigate them. As such it is an important and timely contribution to the debate on the costs and benefits of globalisation for developing countries.A --Andre Sapir, Professor of Economics, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, and former Economic Advisor to the President of the European Commission




The Cost of Adjustment to Green Growth Policies


Book Description

Green growth policies confront firms and workers with adjustments that may create welfare costs for different segments of the population and cause reductions in near-term actual versus potential gross domestic product. There is little evidence on the cost of adjustment to climate change measures, and only limited evidence for more general environmental policies, especially in developing countries. Therefore, this paper canvasses the research on adjustment costs to trade policies to draw analogies and highlight differences compared with the potential impacts of green growth policies. Trade policies affect prices and work directly on technology choice. In the presence of adjustment costs, firms may experience impacts on wages, employment, and incentives to adopt alternative technologies. Both types of trade policy impacts may be amplified by technology availability and credit constraints. Many green growth policies are likely to work via the same mechanisms, that is, taxes on emissions or changes in technology requirements. However, trade liberalization is typically seen as offering higher total incomes, albeit with winners and losers. Green growth policies are thought of as welfare-enhancing at the collective level but may not be income-enhancing at the individual level. This implies much more difficulty in measuring the potential gains associated with green growth policies.




Sticky Feet


Book Description

The analysis in this report confirms the findings of previous studies that trade liberalization improves aggregate welfare and is in the long run associated with higher employment and wages. The analysis addresses a major gap in the literature, which has heretofore provided limited evidence about the trade-related adjustment costs faced by workers in developing countries and how they are affected by mobility costs. Labor market frictions reduce the potential gains from trade reform. For a tariff reduction in a given sector, the resulting change in relative prices raises real wages in some sectors and reduces them in the liberalized sector. The emerging wage gaps lead to labor reallocation. But workers typically incur costs to change jobs; the higher the mobility costs, the slower the transition to the new labor market steady state. Workers’ sticky feet result in foregone welfare gains from trade. This report presents an estimation strategy for capturing mobility costs when only net flows of workers between industries are observed, generating cross-country estimates for 47 developed and developing countries. The basic analytical approach is then refined to take advantage of micro-level data on worker transitions and wages when gross flows can be observed to derive mobility cost estimates that account for sector and formality status. These cost estimates are used to model the dynamic paths of labor reallocation between sectors and in and out of the labor force, the associated wage paths, and the resulting labor adjustment costs. The main findings of the report are that: labor mobility costs in developing countries are high; foregone trade gains due to frictions in labor mobility can also be substantial; workers bear the brunt of adjustment costs; mobility costs and labor market adjustments to trade-related shocks vary by industry, firm type, and worker type; entry costs are significantly higher for formal than for informal employment; trade reforms increase economy-wide wages and employment; and workers displaced by plant closings are likely to face relatively long adjustment periods. The findings provide insights that could be helpful to policymakers hoping to mitigate negative short-term consequences of trade liberalization and facilitate labor adjustment.




The Cost of Adjustment to Green Growth Policies


Book Description

Green growth policies confront firms and workers with adjustments that may create welfare costs for different segments of the population and cause reductions in near-term actual versus potential gross domestic product. There is little evidence on the cost of adjustment to climate change measures, and only limited evidence for more general environmental policies, especially in developing countries. Therefore, this paper canvasses the research on adjustment costs to trade policies to draw analogies and highlight differences compared with the potential impacts of green growth policies. Trade policies affect prices and work directly on technology choice. In the presence of adjustment costs, firms may experience impacts on wages, employment, and incentives to adopt alternative technologies. Both types of trade policy impacts may be amplified by technology availability and credit constraints. Many green growth policies are likely to work via the same mechanisms, that is, taxes on emissions or changes in technology requirements. However, trade liberalization is typically seen as offering higher total incomes, albeit with winners and losers. Green growth policies are thought of as welfare-enhancing at the collective level but may not be income-enhancing at the individual level. This implies much more difficulty in measuring the potential gains associated with green growth policies.




Adjusting to Trade Policy Reform


Book Description

A survey of more than 50 empirical papers shows that the adjustment costs of trade liberalization are small relative to the benefits. Moreover, manufacturing employment typically increases with trade liberalization. The limited data suggests that trade liberalization reduces poverty.




Trade, Employment, and Adjustment


Book Description




trade costs, barriers to entry, and export diversification in developing countries


Book Description

Abstract: This paper finds that a 1 percent reduction in the cost of exporting or the cost of international transport is associated with an export diversification gain of 0.3 percent or 0.4 percent respectively. Lower domestic market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the elasticity is weaker ( -0.1). To obtain these results, the authors construct new measures of export diversification for 118 developing countries using highly detailed 8-digit mirror data from the European Union. The analysis also incorporates new export cost data from the World Bank's Doing Business database, covering document preparation, inland transport, administrative fees, and port/customs charges. Findings are highly robust, including to the use of geography and colonial history as instruments for trade and entry costs. Both the signs and relative magnitudes of these effects are consistent with predictions from a heterogeneous firms model of trade with asymmetric costs.




Hard Bargaining Ahead


Book Description

"A well-integrated volume which analyzes major trade problems and sets forth concrete, reasonable proposals for dealing with them." --Foreign Affairs North-South trade relations are deeply troubled. U.S. exports to developing countries declined by $19.2 billion for 1980-83, at the cost of some 1.1 million jobs in the U.S. export sector. Many developing countries, meanwhile, face financial crises that can only be resolved over the long run through resumed expansion of trade. In this volume, distinguished practitioners and academics identify specific policy objectives for the United States on issues that will be prominent in the proposed new round of GATT negotiations: adjustment of U.S. firms and workers to imports from developing countries, including sensitive sectors such as textile and steel; transition or "graduation" of the newly industrialized countries of East Asia and Latin America to a more reciprocal basis of access to markets; special benefits for the poorest or least developed countries; and preferential trading arrangements.




Coping with Trade Reforms


Book Description

This book gauges possible development implications of current WTO trade negotiations by examining various proposals and assessing their likely economic impact. The experiences of a number of countries at different levels of development and across various regions are examined to ascertain the impact of their trade reforms.




Economic Policy Responses to Preference Erosion


Book Description

Trade preferences are a central issue in ongoing efforts to negotiate further multilateral trade liberalization. "Less preferred" countries are increasingly concerned about the discrimination they confront, while "more preferred" developing countries worry that WTO-based liberalization of trade will erode the value of current preferential access regimes. This tension suggests there is a political economy case for preference-granting countries to explicitly address erosion fears. The authors argue that the appropriate instrument for this is development assistance. The alternative of addressing erosion concerns through the trading system will generate additional discrimination and trade distortions, rather than moving the WTO toward a more liberal, non-discriminatory regime. They further argue that prospective losses generated by most-favored-nation liberalization should be quantified on a bilateral basis, using methods that estimate what the associated transfer should have been and ignoring the various factors that reduce their value in practice (such as compliance costs or the fact that part of the rents created by preference programs accrue to importers in OECD countries). Given that many poor countries have not been able to benefit much from preference programs, a case is also made that preference erosion should be considered as part of a broader response by OECD countries to calls to make the trading system more supportive of economic development. The focus should be on identifying actions and policy measures that will improve the ability of developing countries to use trade for development.