Volcanism, Cold Temperature, and Paucity of Sunspot Observing Days (1818-1858): A Connection?


Book Description

During the interval of 1818-1858, several curious decreases in the number of sunspot observing days per year are noted in the observing record of Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, and in the reconstructed record of Rudolf Wolf, the founder of the now familiar relative sunspot number. These decreases appear to be nonrandom in nature and often extended for 1-3 yr (or more). Comparison of these decreases with equivalent annual mean temperature (both annual means and 4-yr moving averages), as recorded at Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), indicates that the temperature during the years of decreased number of observing days trended downward near the start of each decrease and upward (suggesting some sort of recovery) just before the end of each decrease. The drop in equivalent annual mean temperature associated with each decrease, as determined from the moving averages, measured about 0.1-0.7°C. The decreases in number of observing days are found to be closely related to the occurrences of large, cataclysmic volcanic eruptions in the tropics or northern hemisphere.




Volcanism, Cold Temperature, and Paucity of Sunspot Observing Days (1818-1858)


Book Description

During the interval of 1818-1858, several curious decreases in the number of sunspot observing days per year are noted in the observing record of Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, and in the reconstructed record of Rudolf Wolf, the founder of the now familiar relative sunspot number. These decreases appear to be nonrandom in nature and often extended for 13 yr (or more). Comparison of these decreases with equivalent annual mean temperature (both annual means and 4-yr moving averages). as recorded at Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), indicates that the temperature during the years of decreased number of observing days trended downward near the start of' each decrease and upward (suggesting some sort of recovery) just before the end of each decrease. The drop in equivalent annual mean temperature associated with each decrease, as determined from the moving averages, measured about 0.1-0.7 C. The decreases in number of observing days are found to be closely related to the occurrences of large, cataclysmic volcanic eruptions in the tropics or northern hemisphere. In particular, the interval of increasing number of observing days at the beginning of the record (i.e., 1818-1819) may be related to the improving atmospheric conditions in Europe following the 1815 eruption of Tambora (Indonesia; 8 deg. S), which previously, has been linked to "the year without a summer" (in 1816) and which is the strongest eruption in recent history, while the decreases associated with the years of 1824, 1837, and 1847 may, be linked, respectively, to the large, catacivsmic volcanic eruptions of Galunggung (Indonesia; 7 deg. S) in 1822, Cosiguina (Nicaragua) in 1835, and, perhaps, Hekla (Iceland; 64 deg. N) in 1845. Surprisingly, the number of observing days per year, as recorded specifically b), SchAabe (from Dessau, Germany), is found to be linearly correlated against the yearly mean temperature at Armagh Observatory (r = 0.5 at the 2 percent leve...




Volcanism, Cold Temperature, and Paucity of Sunspot Observing Days, 1818-1858


Book Description

The NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) houses half a million publications that are a valuable means of information to researchers, teachers, students, and the general public. These documents are all aerospace related with much scientific and technical information created or funded by NASA. Some types of documents include conference papers, research reports, meeting papers, journal articles and more. This is one of those documents.




The Frigid Golden Age


Book Description

Dagomar Degroot offers the first detailed analysis of how a society thrived amid the Little Ice Age, a period of climatic cooling that reached its chilliest point between the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries. The precocious economy, unusual environment, and dynamic intellectual culture of the Dutch Republic in its seventeenth-century Golden Age allowed it to thrive as neighboring societies unraveled in the face of extremes in temperature and precipitation. By tracing the occasionally counterintuitive manifestations of climate change from global to local scales, Degroot finds that the Little Ice Age presented not only challenges for Dutch citizens but also opportunities that they aggressively exploited in conducting commerce, waging war, and creating culture. The overall success of their Republic in coping with climate change offers lessons that we would be wise to heed today, as we confront the growing crisis of global warming.




On the Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes


Book Description

On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (5° N.-5° S., 120°-170° W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Niño and 10 La Niña, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing show that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's especially for El Niño, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Niño and La Niña looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-mo long for El Niño and about 9- and 18-mo long for La Niña, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Niño, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50-mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Niño are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (or longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Niño occured in 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Niño is not expected until February 2000 or later.