Will China Dominate the 21st Century?


Book Description

China's spectacular growth and expanding global role have led to visions of the 21st century being dominated by the last major state on earth ruled by a Communist Party. In this new edition of his widely acclaimed book, renowned China expert Jonathan Fenby shows why such assumptions are wrong. He presents an analysis of China under Xi Jinping which explores the highly significant political, economic, social and international challenges it faces, each involving structural difficulties that will put the system under strain. Based on the author's extensive knowledge of contemporary China and his close analysis of Xi's leadership, this incisive book offers a pragmatic view of where the country is heading at a time when its future is too important an issue for wishful theorizing.




Will China Dominate the 21st Century?


Book Description

China's spectacular growth and expanding global role have led to visions of the 21st century being dominated by the last major state on earth ruled by a Communist Party. In this new edition of his widely acclaimed book, renowned China expert Jonathan Fenby shows why such assumptions are wrong. He presents an analysis of China under Xi Jinping which explores the highly significant political, economic, social and international challenges it faces, each involving structural difficulties that will put the system under strain. Based on the author's extensive knowledge of contemporary China and his close analysis of Xi's leadership, this incisive book offers a pragmatic view of where the country is heading at a time when its future is too important an issue for wishful theorizing.




China's Future


Book Description

China's future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper. Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world's leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime's power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate? In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China's leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China's future for all those seeking to understand the country's likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.




The Contest of the Century


Book Description

From the former Financial Times Beijing bureau chief, a balanced and far-seeing analysis of the emerging competition between China and the United States that will dominate twenty-first-century world affairs—an inside account of Beijing’s quest for influence and an explanation of how America can come out on top. The structure of global politics is shifting rapidly. After decades of rising, China has entered a new and critical phase where it seeks to turn its economic heft into global power. In this deeply informed book, Geoff Dyer makes a lucid and convincing argument that China and the United States are now embarking on a great power–style competition that will dominate the century. This contest will take place in every arena: from control of the seas, where China’s new navy is trying to ease the United States out of Asia and reassert its traditional leadership, to rewriting the rules of the global economy, with attempts to turn the renminbi into the predominant international currency, toppling the dominance of the U.S. dollar. And by investing billions to send its media groups overseas, Beijing hopes to shift the global debate about democracy and individual rights. Eyeing the high ground of international politics, China is taking the first steps in an ambitious global agenda. Yet Dyer explains how China will struggle to unseat the United States. China’s new ambitions are provoking intense anxiety, especially in Asia, while America’s global influence has deep roots. If Washington can adjust to a world in which it is no longer dominant but still immensely powerful, it can withstand China’s challenge. With keen insight based on a deep local knowledge—offering the reader visions of coastal Chinese beauty pageants and secret submarine bases, lockstep Beijing military parades and the neon media screens of Xinhua exported to New York City’s Times Square—The Contest of the Century is essential reading at a time of great uncertainty about America’s future, a road map for retaining a central role in the world.




China, Trade and Power: Why the West’s Economic Engagement Has Failed


Book Description

From a Western point of view, the policy of economic engagement with China has failed. A rapid rise in living standards in China has helped legitimize and strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s power. How did Western, market-orientated, property-owning, liberal democracies go from being in a position of complete global hegemony in the early 1990s to the current crisis of confidence and loss of moral foundation? This book tells the story of the most successful trading nation of the early twenty-first century. It looks at how the Communist Party of China has retained and cemented its monopoly on political power since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001. It is the most extraordinary economic success story of our time and it has reshaped the geopolitics not just of Asia but of the world. As China has come to dominate global manufacturing, its economic power has been translated into political power, and the West now has a global rival that is politically antithetical to liberal values. The supply-side deflation from allowing 750 million low-cost workers into the global trading system combined with the policy of inflation targeting by Western central banks has led to falling real incomes for many in the West and rising asset prices that have benefited the few. Worse still, China’s mercantilist model is now held up as a viable economic alternative. To have a fighting chance of protecting the freedoms of liberal democracies, it is of the utmost importance that we understand how the policy of indulgent engagement with China has affected Western society in recent years. Only then can the global trading system be reoriented for the mutual benefit of all nations.




In Line Behind a Billion People


Book Description

The authors set out each of the scarcities that could limit China's power and stall its progress. Beyond scarcities of natural resources and public goods, they explore China's persistent poverties of individual freedoms, institutions, and ideological appeal--and the corrosive loss of values among a growing middle class shackled by a parochial and inflexible political system.




Is China Buying the World?


Book Description

China has become the world's second biggest economy and its largest exporter. It possesses the world's largest foreign exchange reserves and has 29 companies in the FT 500 list of the world's largest companies. ‘China's Rise' preoccupies the global media, which regularly carry articles suggesting that it is using its financial resources to ‘buy the world'. Is there any truth to this idea? Or is this just scaremongering by Western commentators who have little interest in a balanced presentation of China's role in the global political economy? In this short book Peter Nolan - one of the leading international experts on China and the global economy - probes behind the media rhetoric and shows that the idea that China is buying the world is a myth. Since the 1970s the global business revolution has resulted in an unprecedented degree of industrial concentration. Giant firms from high income countries with leading technologies and brands have greatly increased their investments in developing countries, with China at the forefront. Multinational companies account for over two-thirds of China's high technology output and over ninety percent of its high technology exports. Global firms are deep inside the Chinese business system and are pressing China hard to be permitted to increase their presence without restraints. By contrast, Chinese firms have a negligible presence in the high-income countries - in other words, we are ‘inside them' but they are not yet ‘inside us'. China's 70-odd ‘national champion' firms are protected by the government through state ownership and other support measures. They are in industries such as banking, metals, mining, oil, power, construction, transport, and telecommunications, which tend to make use of high technology products rather than produce these products themselves. Their growth has been based on the rapidly growing home market. China has been unsuccessful so far in its efforts to nurture a group of globally competitive firms with leading global technologies and brands. Whether it will be successful in the future is an open question. This balanced analysis replaces rhetoric with evidence and argument. It provides a much-needed perspective on current debates about China's growing power and it will contribute to a constructive dialogue between China and the West.




A Giant Reborn


Book Description

The world is in turmoil. Whether one looks at Europe, Asia, North America, the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America, uncertainty and upheaval seem to be the order of the day. Nevertheless, there seems to be an odd certainty in the minds of many pundits, writers, and citizens in this highly volatile world of geopolitics: the days of the United States as the world's sole superpower are over. The consensus tells us that the United States will not be able to keep a status as a major power among China, the European community, and a resurgent Russia. How realistic is this perspective, though? Is the "air of inevitability" concerning America's demise merely a passing breeze? How solid is the "unstoppable rise" of the Chinese? How likely is it for Europe to right its ship? A Giant Reborn, from critically acclaimed author and leading economic journalist Johan Van Overtveldt, dispels many of these ingrained assumptions and argues that the 21st century will be defined by the country currently best set up to succeed: the United States of America. In the current chaotic political climate it seems risky to say any country will be able to maintain its current status. But Van Overtveldt provides a measured, insightful, and thoroughly engaging examination of the evidence. In his richly detailed style and straightforward explanations, he masterfully lays out a case for why America, against many pundits' best predictions, is set up to continue its 20th-century success into this millennium. A Giant Reborn shows readers that the reports of America's death, to paraphrase the father of American literature, have been greatly exaggerated.




The Beijing Consensus


Book Description

Beijing presents a clear and gathering threat to Washington -- but not for the reasons you think. China's challenge to the West stems from its transformative brand of capitalism and an entirely different conception of the international community. In The Beijing Consensus, a leading expert in international relations presents a coherent integration of the many sides of U.S.-China relations.




Unrivaled


Book Description

Beckley demonstrates that no country is poised to upend American primacy, not economically, not militarily, and not technologically.... The evidence he assembles should be part of any serious debate about where we are headed.― The New York Times The United States has been the world's dominant power for more than a century. Now many analysts believe that other countries are rising and the United States is in decline. Is the unipolar moment over? Is America finished as a superpower? In this book, Michael Beckley argues that the United States has unique advantages over other nations that, if used wisely, will allow it to remain the world's sole superpower throughout this century. We are not living in a transitional, post-Cold War era. Instead, we are in the midst of what he calls the unipolar era—a period as singular and important as any epoch in modern history. This era, Beckley contends, will endure because the US has a much larger economic and military lead over its closest rival, China, than most people think and the best prospects of any nation to amass wealth and power in the decades ahead. Deeply researched and brilliantly argued, this book covers hundreds of years of great power politics and develops new methods for measuring power and predicting the rise and fall of nations. By documenting long-term trends in the global balance of power and explaining their implications for world politics, the book provides guidance for policymakers, businesspeople, and scholars alike.