Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes)


Book Description

Volume 1 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets,' — Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the 'predictable irrationality' of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency.A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets — as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called 'market inefficiencies' and 'stylized facts.'A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the 'Fundamental Laws of Gambling.' Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of 'gambling rationality' (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of 'rationality.' By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price 'distorters'), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step 'Strategic Analysis of Market Method.' Examples are given in this and Volume 2.Volume 2 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets' — Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders.But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory 'backtesting' literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.




Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets, the (in 2 Volumes)


Book Description

Volume 1 of ""The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets,"" - Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the ""predictable irrationality"" of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency. A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets - as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called ""market inefficiencies"" and ""stylized facts."" A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the ""Fundamental Laws of Gambling."" Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of ""gambling rationality"" (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of ""rationality."" By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price ""distorters""), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step ""Strategic Analysis of Market Method."" Examples are given in this and Volume 2. Volume 2 of ""The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets"" - Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders. But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory ""backtesting"" literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.




World Scientific Reference On Contingent Claims Analysis In Corporate Finance (In 4 Volumes)


Book Description

Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973, 1974) (hereafter referred to as BSM) introduced the contingent claim approach (CCA) to the valuation of corporate debt and equity. The BSM modeling framework is also named the 'structural' approach to risky debt valuation. The CCA considers all stakeholders of the corporation as holding contingent claims on the assets of the corporation. Each claim holder has different priorities, maturities and conditions for payouts. It is based on the principle that all the assets belong to all the liability holders.The BSM modeling framework gives the basic fundamental version of the structural model where default is assumed to occur when the net asset value of the firm at the maturity of the pure-discount debt becomes negative, i.e., market value of the assets of the firm falls below the face value of the firm's liabilities. In a regime of limited liability, the shareholders of the firm have the option to default on the firm's debt. Equity can be viewed as a European call option on the firm's assets with a strike price equal to the face value of the firm's debt. Actually, CCA can be used to value all the components of the firm's liabilities, equity, warrants, debt, contingent convertible debt, guarantees, etc.In the four volumes we present the major academic research on CCA in corporate finance starting from 1973, with seminal papers of Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973, 1974). Volume I covers the foundation of CCA and contributions on equity valuation. Volume II focuses on corporate debt valuation and the capital structure of the firm. Volume III presents empirical evidence on the valuation of debt instruments as well as applications of the CCA to various financial arrangements. The papers in Volume IV show how to apply the CCA to analyze sovereign credit risk, contingent convertible bonds (CoCos), deposit insurance and loan guarantees. Volume 1: Foundations of CCA and Equity ValuationVolume 1 presents the seminal papers of Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973, 1974). This volume also includes papers that specifically price equity as a call option on the corporation. It introduces warrants, convertible bonds and taxation as contingent claims on the corporation. It highlights the strong relationship between the CCA and the Modigliani-Miller (M&M) Theorems, and the relation to the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM). Volume 2: Corporate Debt Valuation with CCAVolume 2 concentrates on corporate bond valuation by introducing various types of bonds with different covenants as well as introducing various conditions that trigger default. While empirical evidence indicates that the simple Merton's model underestimates the credit spreads, additional risk factors like jumps can be used to resolve it. Volume 3: Empirical Testing and Applications of CCAVolume 3 includes papers that look at issues in corporate finance that can be explained with the CCA approach. These issues include the effect of dividend policy on the valuation of debt and equity, the pricing of employee stock options and many other issues of corporate governance. Volume 4: Contingent Claims Approach for Banks and Sovereign DebtVolume 4 focuses on the application of the contingent claim approach to banks and other financial intermediaries. Regulation of the banking industry led to the creation of new financial securities (e.g., CoCos) and new types of stakeholders (e.g., deposit insurers).




Stocks And Forex Trading: How To Win


Book Description

Dreaming of becoming a successful trader? Daryl Guppy and Karen Wong show you the steps that will allow you to turn part-time trading into a successful income stream.Wong's unique approach uses a stock exchange-based Trading Game simulation as an arena for stress testing trading ideas before risking real cash. This is a serious training method. Wong reveals the essential lessons underpinning survival and success in modern trading markets. She shows how sensible use of derivatives like contract for differences (CFD) enhance returns from trading ideas. Wong takes you through the steps she followed to turn an ambition into a reality. Based on her experience, using Guppy trading methods and her own trading methods, she shows mistakes to avoid and some shortcuts to success.Guppy shows how to adapt your stock trading skills to trading the foreign exchange (Forex) market using methods suitable for a part-time trader. This includes a full explanation of a trading approach for Forex, commodities, and indices. This new trading method identifies high probability trades with well-defined exit targets. This method is designed for time-poor traders who want to limit time risk in the market.Guppy and Wong explain how charting and technical analysis methods are easily applied to improve trade identification, trade management, and profit taking. The discussion is illuminated with real trades so you can identify the features of success, and also the warning signs of failure.Modern markets call for a new mixture of trade methods to make the best use of new trading instruments like CFDs and the increasingly accessible Forex market. You can trade part-time and make a decent second income. Guppy and Wong give you the benefit of their experience and the tools to make this dream a reality.Related Link(s)




Investing In The Modern Age


Book Description

This book discusses many key topics in investment and risk management, the global economic situation and the shift in global investment strategies. It was largely written during the period of 2007-12, one of the most tumultuous times in global financial markets which called into question not only tenets of economic forecasting and also asset allocation and return strategies. It contains studies of how investors lose money in derivative markets, examples of those who did not and how these disasters could have been prevented. The authors draw some conclusions on the impact of the structural shifts currently underway in the global economy as well as how cyclical trends will affect these industries, the globe and key sectors. The authors zoom in on key growth areas, including emerging markets, their interlinkages and financial trends.The book also covers risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies in financial and sports betting markets, plus incentives, volatility aspects, risk taking and investments strategies used by hedge funds and university endowments. Topics such as stock market crash predictions, asset liability planning models, various players in financial markets and the evaluation of the greatest investors are also discussed.The book presents tools and case studies of real applications for analyzing a wide variety of investment returns and better assessing the risks which many investors have preferred to ignore in the search of returns. Many security market regularities or anomalies are discussed including political party and January effects as is the process of building scenarios and using Kelly and fractional Kelly strategies to optimize returns.




Cultural Finance: A World Map Of Risk, Time And Money


Book Description

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the emerging field of cultural finance. It summarizes research results of cultural differences in financial decision making and financial markets. Many of the results have been published in leading academic journals over the last ten years but some are presented here for the first time. The book is based on an international survey on risk and time preferences — the INTRA study, conducted in 53 countries worldwide. Applications to financial markets include the equity premium puzzle, the value premium, dividend payout policies and asset allocations.




Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making


Book Description

This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).




Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets


Book Description

John J. Murphy has updated his landmark bestseller Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, to include all of the financial markets. This outstanding reference has already taught thousands of traders the concepts of technical analysis and their application in the futures and stock markets. Covering the latest developments in computer technology, technical tools, and indicators, the second edition features new material on candlestick charting, intermarket relationships, stocks and stock rotation, plus state-of-the-art examples and figures. From how to read charts to understanding indicators and the crucial role technical analysis plays in investing, readers gain a thorough and accessible overview of the field of technical analysis, with a special emphasis on futures markets. Revised and expanded for the demands of today's financial world, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in tracking and analyzing market behavior.




World Scientific Reference On Entrepreneurship, The (In 4 Volumes)


Book Description

This multi-volume set focuses on a topic of growing interest to academics, policymakers, university administrators, state and regional economic development officials, and students: entrepreneurship. In recent years, we have witnessed a proliferation of entrepreneurship courses, programs, and initiatives at universities. Universities have also become entrepreneurial hubs, as they commercialize research via patents, licenses, and startup companies. It is also important to note that entrepreneurship cuts across numerous fields in business administration, such as management, strategy, operations management, finance, marketing, and accounting, as well as across numerous social science disciplines, including economics, sociology, political science, and psychology.Volume 1 is a comprehensive analysis of entrepreneurial universities, highlighting efforts undertaken by numerous universities to partner with industry and develop an entrepreneurial culture on campus and in the surrounding region. Volume 2 is focused on entrepreneurial finance, containing chapters on salient topics such as venture capital, angel investors, initial public offerings (IPOs), and crowdfunding. Volume 3 presents evidence on entrepreneurial opportunities relating to sustainability and other forms of corporate social responsibility, social entrepreneurship, and ethical issues that arise in the context of entrepreneurial activity. Volume 4 provides global evidence on university technology transfer and academic entrepreneurship. This set is required reading for those who want a full understanding of the managerial, financial, and public policy implications of entrepreneurship.




World Scientific Reference On Globalisation In Eurasia And The Pacific Rim (In 4 Volumes)


Book Description

This multi-volume set focuses on a key region of the world which contains four of the biggest emerging economies, a large number of highly dynamic small- and medium-sized emerging economies, and one of the leading advanced industrial countries. It is a region which contains some of the biggest hydrocarbon and mineral deposits in the world, and some of the most energy- and metal-hungry economies in the world. With half the world's population, it is one of the most dynamic regions of the globe in terms of population movement, providing a key focus of foreign investment, both inwards and outwards, with a high degree of technological dynamism. The region plays a central role in the industrial supply networks of the globe.In four volumes, focusing on, respectively, foreign investment, innovation, energy and migration, the set focuses on each of the main elements in the production system in turn — capital, innovation, raw materials and labour. Volume 1 studies patterns of interchange of financial and direct investment within the region, focusing on governance, the development of supply chains, and technology transfer. In Volume 2, the technology theme becomes dominant, with a special focus on digital technology. It includes technical issues like mobile communications standardisation, developmental dimensions, including the role of clusters and science parks, and political economy issues like the rise of techno-nationalism. Volume 3 turns to energy issues — not just issues of supply and demand, but also key problems of climate change, security and sustainability across the Eurasian and Asian landmass. Volume 4 presents the human dimension, looking at people in movement, as workers, citizens, men, women, or colonisers. Among the key issues discussed are the migration from country to town in China, the ‘greying’ of countries like Japan, the effect of war on migration, marriage migration, human trafficking and the depopulation of the Russian Far East.The set is a must-have for anyone keen to understand the region whose manufacturing core can be described, without exaggeration, as the ‘workshop of the world’ of the twenty-first century.