The Economic History of Central, East and South-East Europe


Book Description

The collapse of communism in Central, East and South-East Europe (CESEE) led to great hopes for the region and for Europe. A quarter of a century on, the picture is mixed: in many CESEE countries, the transformation process is incomplete, and the economic catch-up has taken longer than anticipated. The current situation has highlighted the need for a better understanding of the long-term political and economic implications of the Central, East and South-East European historical experience. This thematically organised text offers a clear and comprehensive guide to the economic history of CESEE from 1800 to the present day. Bringing together authors from both East and West, the book also draws on the cutting-edge research of a new generation of scholars from the CESEE region. Presenting a thoroughly modern overview of the history of the region, the text will be invaluable to students of economic history and CESEE area studies.




30 Years of Transition in Europe


Book Description

This thought-provoking book investigates the political and economic transformation that has taken place over the past three decades in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Through an examination of both the successes and shortcomings of post communist reform and the challenges ahead for the region, it explores the topical issues of economic transition and integration, and highlights lessons to be learned.




Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe


Book Description

The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.




Reassessing the Role of State-Owned Enterprises in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe


Book Description

The Central, Eastern, and South Eastern European (CESEE) region is ripe for a reassessment of the role of the state in economic activity. The rapid income convergence with Western Europe of the early 2000s was not always equally shared across society, and it has now slowed dramatically in many countries of the region.




Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe


Book Description

There are 13 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. This paper uses the framework pioneered by Frankel and Wei (1994) and extended in Frankel and Wei (2008) to show that most of them have been tracking either the euro or the US dollar in recent years. Eight countries, all of them current or aspiring EU members, track the euro. Of the five countries keying on the US dollar in various degrees, all but one belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The paper shows that the extent to which each country’s currency tracks the euro (or the dollar) is correlated with the structure of its external trade and finance. However, some countries appear to track the EUR or USD to an extent which appears inconsistent with inflation targeting, trade or financial integration, or the extent of business cycle synchronization. The phenomenon is particularly pronounced among the countries in the CESEE euro bloc, which may be deliberately gravitating around the euro in anticipation of eventually joining the Euro Area.




Real Convergence in Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe


Book Description

This paper analyses real income convergence in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) to the most advanced EU economies between 2000 and 2016. The relevance of this topic stems both from the far-reaching implications of real income convergence for economic welfare and the importance of convergence for economic and monetary integration with, and within the European Union. The paper establishes stylised facts of convergence, analyses the drivers of economic growth and identifies factors that might explain the differences between fast- and slow-converging economies in the region. The results show that the most successful CESEE economies in terms of the pace of convergence share common characteristics such as, inter alia, a strong improvement in institutional quality and human capital, more outward-oriented economic policies, favourable demographic developments and the quick reallocation of labour from agriculture into other sectors. Looking ahead, accelerating and sustaining convergence in the region will require further efforts to enhance institutional quality and innovation, reinvigorate investment, and address the adverse impact of population ageing.




Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe


Book Description

Against the backdrop of the financial crisis that unfolded in 2008, this book deals with policy challenges going forward, focusing in particular on the ongoing catching-up process in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries. Whilst having emerged relatively unscathed from the crisis, the CESEE economies nonetheless need to adjust to the new external conditions they will encounter. In this respect, decision-makers are faced with multiple sources of uncertainty: will post-crisis growth be the same as pre-crisis growth? What will be the future role of financial integration, growth financing and exports? What are the particular challenges facing monetary policy-makers and the banking sector in the region? On these issues and related topics, the book provides a multi-disciplinary assessment, combining the views of high-ranking central bankers and other policy-makers, commercial bankers and academics. Economists and students of economic policy and European integration from central, commercial and investment banks, governments, international organizations, universities and research institutes will find this book of great interest and importance, especially those working on Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.




A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries


Book Description

Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.




Smart Cities, Smart Investment in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe


Book Description

This paper makes the case for smart policy development in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE). It uses EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) 2017 results for CESEE cities to outline local infrastructure gaps and demonstrate the productivity and innovation gaps between CESEE cities and other EU cities. It discusses negative demographic trends in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, and evaluates capital and non-capital regional convergence in CESEE countries. Introducing a Smart Region Index, to allow the identification of gaps in CESEE regions compared with the EU, it also uses EIBIS to provide further conclusions on obstacles to investment for CESEE municipalities and highlights the importance of the use of EU funds.




Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe


Book Description

This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 11⁄2 percent from 41⁄4 percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.