How Vertically Specialized is Chinese Trade?


Book Description

Two recent phenomena have transformed the nature of world trade: the explosive growth of Chinese trade, and the growth of vertically specialized trade due to international production fragmentation. While vertical specialization may explain much of the growth and unique features of Chinese trade, few papers have quantitatively assessed these two phenomena together. In part, this is because it is difficult to measure just how vertically specialized Chinese trade is. The unique features of China's extensive processing trade cause both the identification of imported intermediate goods, and their allocation across sectors, to depend upon the Chinese trade regime. In this paper, we estimate the vertical specialization of Chinese exports, addressing these two challenges. Using two Chinese benchmark input-output tables, and a detailed Chinese trade dataset which distinguishes processing trade from other forms of trade, we develop a new method of identifying intermediate goods imported into China. Vertical specialization is then estimated using two methods. The first method uses the Hummels, Ishii and Yi (2001) measure, the official benchmark IO tables, and incorporates our identification correction. The second method follows the first, but also incorporates the Koopman, Wang and Wei (2008) method of splitting the benchmark IO tables into separate tables for processing and normal exports, in order to address the allocation problem. Results show strong evidence of an Asian network of intermediate suppliers to China, and the two methods provide a range of estimates for the foreign content of Chinese exports. In 2002 aggregate exports ranges between 25% and 46%, with some individual sectors are as high as 52%-95%. Across destinations, under both methods, the vertical specialization of Chinese exports declines with the level of development of the trading partner.




Vertical Specialization and Trade Surplus in China


Book Description

The traditional flow of goods from primary production through to manufacturing and consumption has expanded across international borders conterminously with globalization. Vertical specialization (VS) in processing and manufacturing in China has driven export growth. In particular, intra-industry and intra-product trade between China, the US and East Asia has increased China’s trade surplus over the long term. Vertical Specialization and Trade Surplus in China aims to measure the level of VS in the Chinese manufacturing industry to provide a more accurate representation of China’s trade surplus, and gives empirical analysis on provinces and products with important VS activities in order to assess China’s trade value-added. Exploring the vertical division of labour, and foreign direct investment (FDI) driving China’s import and export imbalance, the book is divided into eight chapters, each covering an aspect of VS in China. The first chapter outlines the aims and method of the study. Chapter two covers VS trade pattern and trade surplus. Chapter three looks at FDI and the import and export imbalance, and chapter four covers the relationship between VS and import and export of foreign invested enterprises. The fifth chapter considers the causes and prospects for growth in China-US and China-Japan trade. Chapters six and seven give an empirical analysis of VS and trade surplus, and a breakdown of VS per industry in China’s provinces. Finally, chapter eight considers rebalancing imports and exports in China. Measures VS across China including the developed provinces based on the newest input-output table Presents the main provinces and products closely related to VS Gives evidence on global VS trade patterns from China’s national data




Achieving Inclusive Growth in China Through Vertical Specialization


Book Description

Vertical Specialization and Inclusive Growth in China discusses the two interrelated developments that have transformed the Chinese economy in recent years. First, the global community has increased calls to foster inclusive economic growth, with China embracing this trend. Second, the explosive growth in China’s trade resulting from international vertical specialization production and trade networks which has complicated the notion of inclusive growth in the Chinese context. This book assesses these two trends quantitatively, giving evidence of the link between vertical specialization and inclusive growth, and then decomposing the inclusive growth effects of vertically specialized trade into six components: GDP growth, export growth, FDI, environment, employment, and innovation. It further explores the differing impact of conventional trade and processing trade on inclusive growth, providing direction for future policy. This second book by the author to consider vertical specialization stresses the importance of integration in driving inclusive growth. Argues that inclusive growth and vertical specialization analyses must be performed together Gives quantitative evidence for the link between vertical specialization and inclusive growth in China Investigates the different impact of conventional trade and processing trade on transition to inclusive growth in China, using comparative analysis techniques Offers insight on forming future policy in China to increase inclusive growth







China's Growing Role in World Trade


Book Description

In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.




The Chinese Economic Renaissance


Book Description

Following the launch in China of economic reforms and the 'open door policy', a new era of economic growth and global integration dawned. In 2008, the thirtieth anniversary year, China completes three decades of broad-based market-oriented macroeconomic reforms and restructuring. This book traces China's economic renaissance.




The Global Trade Slowdown


Book Description

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.




The Puzzle of Twenty-First-Century Globalization


Book Description

The Puzzle of Twenty-First-Century Globalization explores the opportunities and challenges of our international economic system. Patrice Franko and Stephen Stamos clearly trace how the ways we produce, finance, and trade goods and services are profoundly shaped by technologies of communication, transportation, and trade. Globalization encourages hyper-specialization—lavishly rewarding those with the skill sets to serve the global marketplace and punishing those poorly positioned to compete. Globalized systems have created great prosperity—along with instability, vulnerability, and backlash. Few genuinely understand the complex underpinnings of our international economic system—and these specialists tend to operate in isolated silos of finance, trade, and production. But without appreciating how systems come together, we cannot explain political reactions against the costs of globalization such as the Brexit vote or the rise of Donald Trump. We don’t value the changing geo-economic importance of the developing world nor the deep threat to ecosystems. This book is the first to emphasize the interrelated economic aspects of globalization from an interdisciplinary perspective. By placing an introduction to trade, finance, and multinational production in the same text that discusses the changing role of developing countries and the challenges to the environment, the authors provide the novice with the basics to understand the global economy while also challenging advanced students to appreciate global connectivity. Closing the knowledge gap in international economics, the authors present the historical context, interdisciplinary grounding, and competing political perspectivesneededto encourage sound critical thinking around contemporary globalization. They provide the essential global economic tools to equip all readers to make decisions that may foster a fairer, more sustainable global system.




Spillovers of Domestic Shocks


Book Description

Even prior to the extreme volatility just observed, output growth volatility-following protracted decline-was flattening or mildly rising in some countries. More widespread was an increasing tendency from the mid-1990s for shocks in one country to transmit rapidly to other countries, creating the potential for heightened global volatility. The higher sensitivity to foreign shocks, in turn, appears related to stepped-up vertical specialization associated with the integration of emerging markets in international trade. Increased international spillovers call for stronger ex post coordination mechanisms when shocks are large but the best ex ante prevention strategy probably is sensible national policies.