The Timeline of Presidential Elections


Book Description

In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.




Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen?


Book Description

On the afternoon of election day 2004, the world was abuzz with the news: exit polls indicated that John Kerry would decisively win the election and become the next president of the United States. That proved not to be the case. According to the official count—the number of votes tallied, not necessarily the number of votes cast—George W. Bush beat Kerry by a margin of three million votes. The exit polls, however, had predicted a margin of victory for Kerry of five million votes. Occurrences of vote manipulation, vote suppression, and outright election fraud were alleged at the local level in many precincts throughout Ohio and other "battleground" states. Where the controversy of the 2000 presidential election had come about as the result of an extremely close race, in 2004 the irregularities were widespread and appeared to follow a clear pattern. Why then did the Democrats concede the election early the next morning? Why has there been no investigation by any major news organization? What does it say about our democracy when the slot machine industry is more strictly regulated than our electronic voting machines? Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen? analyzes the available data, and attempts to answer the question of whether America's sitting president was inaugurated after winning, or losing the 2004 presidential race.







Stealing Elections


Book Description

"Butterfly ballots, balky machines, absentee ballot scandals, felons voting, Supreme Court intervention - all these made headlines during the infamous 2000 Florida recount. Could it happen again in this year's presidential election? The answer is yes, because not much has changed to improve our election systems, while both major parties are poised on a hair trigger to file lawsuits and challenge any close statewide vote. The issues may boil down to whether the margin of victory in any state exceeds the "margin of litigation."" "John Fund offers a guided tour of our error-prone election systems, which nearly half of Americans say they don't trust. When some states have systems so flawed that you can't tell where incompetence ends and possible fraud begins, it isn't surprising that scandals have ranged from rural Texas to big cities such as Milwaukee and St. Louis. Fund dissects some anomalies of Florida 2000 and analyzes the bitterly protracted election for governor of Washington State in 2004. He spotlights the perils of "provisional ballots," the flaws of the "Motor Voter" law that has allowed people to get absentee ballots for phantom voters, and the shady registration drives of the radical group ACORN. Meanwhile, the simple safeguard of a photo ID requirement meets vigorous opposition on the specious claim that it would disenfranchise poor and minority voters." "Stealing Elections presents a chilling portrait of electoral vulnerability, as a combination of bureaucratic bungling and ballot rigging put our democracy at risk."--BOOK JACKET.




The Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election


Book Description

Musaicum Books presents to you the long awaited Muller Report. The results of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation provide answers to questions that caught the attention of the entire American public. Since the first evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election came up, the Democratic public has raised suspicion in President Trump's involvement. The special counsel was appointed to examine these allegations and to determine the fact regarding the biggest political scandal in the recent American history. On April 18, 2019, a redacted version of the Muller report was released to Congress and the public. In this report Robert Muller presented his findings regarding the Russian interference interfere in the 2016 United States presidential election, allegations of conspiracy or coordination between Donald Trump's presidential campaign and Russia, and allegations of obstruction of justice. Contents: The Special Counsel's Investigation Russian "Active Measures" Social Media Campaign Russian Hacking and Dumping Operations Russian Government Links to and Contacts With the Trump Campaign Prosecution and Declination Decision Executive Summary to Volume II Background Legal and Evidentiary Principles Factual Results Of The Obstruction Investigation Legal Defenses to the Application of Obstruction-Of-Justice Statutes To The President







Election Fraud


Book Description

Allegations of fraud have marred recent elections around the world, from Russia and Italy to Mexico and the United States. Such charges raise fundamental questions about the quality of democracy in each country. Yet election fraud and, more broadly, electoral manipulation remain remarkably understudied concepts. There is no consensus on what constitutes election fraud, let alone how to detect and deter it. E lection Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation brings together experts on election law, election administration, and U.S. and comparative politics to address these critical issues. The first part of the book, which opens with an essay by Craig Donsanto of the U.S. Department of Justice, examines the U.S. understanding of election fraud in comparative perspective. In the second part of the book, D. Roderick Kiewiet, Jonathan N. Katz, and other scholars of U.S. elections draw on a wide variety of sources, including survey data, incident reports, and state-collected fraud allegations, to measure the extent and nature of election fraud in the United States. Finally, the third part of the book analyzes techniques for detecting and potentially deterring fraud. These strategies include both statistical analysis, as Walter R. Mebane, Jr. and Peter Ordeshook explain, and the now widespread practice of election monitoring, which Alberto Simpser examines in an intriguing essay.




The Mueller Report


Book Description

The long awaited Muller Report is finally published and made available to the public. The results of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation provide answers to questions that caught the attention of the entire American public. Since the first evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election came up, the Democratic public has raised suspicion in President Trump's involvement. The special counsel was appointed to examine these allegations and to determine the fact regarding the biggest political scandal in the recent American history. On April 18, 2019, a redacted version of the Muller report was released to Congress and the public. In this report Robert Muller presented his findings regarding the Russian interference interfere in the 2016 United States presidential election, allegations of conspiracy or coordination between Donald Trump's presidential campaign and Russia, and allegations of obstruction of justice. Contents: The Special Counsel's Investigation Russian "Active Measures" Social Media Campaign Russian Hacking and Dumping Operations Russian Government Links to and Contacts With the Trump Campaign Prosecution and Declination Decision Executive Summary to Volume II Background Legal and Evidentiary Principles Factual Results Of The Obstruction Investigation Legal Defenses to the Application of Obstruction-Of-Justice Statutes To The President




October Surprise


Book Description

The 2016 Election, which altered American political history, was not decided by the Russians or in Ukraine or by Steve Bannon. The event that broke Hillary's blue wall in the Midwest and swung Florida and North Carolina was an October Surprise, and it was wholly a product of the leadership of the FBI. This is the inside story by the reporter closest to its center. In September 2016, Hillary Clinton was the presumptive next president of the US. She had a blue wall of states leaning her way in the Midwest, and was ahead in North Carolina and Florida, with a better than even shot at taking normally Republican Arizona. The US was about to get its first woman president. Yet within two months everything was lost. An already tightening race saw one seismic correction: it came in October when the FBI launched an investigation into the Clinton staff's use of a private server for their emails. Clinton fell 3-4 percent in the polls instantly, and her campaign never had time to rebut the investigation or rebuild her momentum so close to election day. The FBI cost her the race. October Surprise is a pulsating narrative of an agency seized with righteous certainty that waded into the most important political moment in the life of the nation, and has no idea how to back out with dignity. So it doggedly stands its ground, compounding its error. In a momentous display of self-preservation, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, and key Justice Department officials decide to protect their own reputations rather than save the democratic process. Once they make that determination, the race is lost for Clinton, who is helpless in front of their accusation even though she has not intended to commit, let alone actually committed, any crime. A dark true-life thriller with historic consequences set at the most crucial moment in the electoral calendar, October Surprise is a warning, a morality tale and a political and personal tragedy.